WASHINGTON, DC, Apr 25 – The protracted Ukraine-Russia war is beginning to suggest that an all-out NATO-Russian conflict could soon follow. It’s all about the fact that the NATO pact declares that an attack on one member nation is an attack on the alliance as a whole—including the U.S. In March, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Ukraine’s neighboring countries, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, all of them members of NATO, and assured them that the pact is “sacrosanct” and that, “We are bolstering our shared defense so that we and our allies are prepared. We will defend every inch of NATO territory if it comes under attack. No one should doubt our readiness; no one should doubt our resolve.”
Poland, for example, shares a border with Ukraine and has been a critical channel for the delivery of weapons that are being supplied by NATO members, weapons that have helped Ukraine defend itself against overwhelming Russian forces, according to National Public Radio correspondent Joanna Kakissis. The Polish government and its citizens are alert that they may be next on Vladimir Putin’s hit list. However, in an interview with political affairs professor John Owen reporters at the University of Virginia’s UVA Today, Owen explained that “Putin does not want a war with NATO (that is, with the United States); indeed, his fear of NATO is one reason why he attacked Ukraine. So I doubt that he would deliberately attack Poland. Still, many doubted that he would attack Ukraine to begin with. Putin likes to surprise his adversaries, and he may sense that in crossing the line into NATO territory, he would be calling our bluff. I’m sure he would be wrong about that, but here again, he was wrong about Ukraine’s capacity for resistance to Russian might.”
However, consider the warning of Thomas Graham, who served as Senior Director for Russian Affairs for President George W. Bush and is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In a recent analysis, he explained that “The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine now underway could quite plausibly precipitate a wider conflict in Europe. The United States is focused primarily on raising the costs to Russia with punishing sanctions and reassuring North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies neighboring Russia of its commitment to collective defense. Less attention has been given to containing the war to Ukraine and preventing its escalation into a broader European conflict...The stakes are enormous. The ripple effects of a wider conflict in Europe would spread across the globe, stressing the geopolitical, economic, and institutional foundations of the international order the United States has fashioned and underwritten since the end of the Second World War. It would test the resilience of the U.S. global system of alliances, the international financial system, global energy markets, arms control regimes, and global institutions in the face of ever more violent great power competition.”
A report by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found that NATO allies in Europe have a shortage of armaments—enough of a shortage that it would be difficult to prevail should the need arise to counter a Russian attack. However, military analysts tell us that the U.S. could make up for Europe’s military disadvantage. But taking the Russians on would not be a sure thing. In an interview, Russian journalist and military specialist Pavel Felgenhauer told the German state-owned broadcaster, Deutsche Welle, that should it come down to a war, it would be like watching and predicting the outcome of soccer match. “Yes, basically, Brazil should beat America in soccer, but I have seen Americans beat Brazil in South Africa, at the Confederations Cup. You never know the result until the game is played.”
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