What Now in Minnesota?

The competitive and often heated primaries for both major political parties in Minnesota have now concluded – and the results confirm that the North Star State will be one to watch between now and November 3.

The major race for Democrats (the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, or DFL, in this state) was to fill the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring DFL incumbent Tina Smith.

This contest, which became very bitter, was between DFL Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and retiring MN-02 Congresswoman Angie Craig. Flanagan is from the radical far-left flank of the DFL and had endorsements from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Ilhan Omar.

Craig, who represents a purple House district, has a more moderate image, although she is very liberal, too. Flanagan notably attacked Craig over her vote in Congress in favor of the Laken Riley Act, legislation requiring the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain illegal aliens charged with “minor crimes.” Under pressure from the left, Craig reversed her support for the law.

Craig had substantially more campaign funds and attacked Flanagan for her ties to business interests. Craig also attempted to tie Flanagan to the massive fraud scandals which have rocked the state in recent months and forced incumbent Governor Tim Walz to drop his bid for a third term. Walz – and by extension Flanagan – have been blamed for ignoring the large-scale theft until it broke into the news.

But Flanagan had won the endorsement at the DFL convention, which Craig did not attend. She also had the endorsement of Senator Smith, former Senator Al Franken, and the party establishment.

With her cash advantage and her reputation as the far better candidate on the stump, Craig was thought to have a chance to win. But Flanagan did surprisingly well in the suburbs and crushed Craig in the Twin Cities, ultimately winning with 59 percent of the vote to Craig’s 39.4 percent.

The Democrat nomination for governor was much less dramatic, with Senator Amy Klobuchar winning with nearly 90 percent of the vote.

On the Republican side, there were several heated contests for statewide offices, including many challenges to candidates who had won endorsement at the controversial GOP state convention. President Trump endorsed MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell in his run for governor, someone who is a longtime Trump supporter but was not otherwise considered a serious contender.

GOP primary voters, who have not been able to elect a statewide candidate for two decades and are roused by the state’s massive fraud scandals, decisively chose the strongest and most credible nominee for each statewide office.

Most notably, Republicans chose sports journalist and broadcaster Michele Tafoya to take on Flanagan in the state’s U.S. Senate race. Tafoya won with more than 50 percent of the vote and is believed to have a chance to defeat Flanagan in November, especially given Flanagan’s association with the Walz administration and public anger at the state’s fraud scandals.

In the gubernatorial race, Republicans nominated Lisa Demuth, the Speaker of the House in the Minnesota legislature. Demuth, a black woman, secured 43.4 percent of the vote and is a credible top of the ticket. She enters the race as an underdog against Klobuchar but will undoubtedly put up a strong fight.

Another GOP primary winner was attorney Ron Schutz, who ran unopposed to take on DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison. Other than Walz, Ellison is perhaps the most vulnerable DFL official in Minnesota when it comes to the fraud issue.

There were more than 600,000 DFL voters in the primary and more than 400,000 GOP voters. Some observers are citing these numbers to predict that the DFL candidates will win again in November, but primary voters are usually only half the November vote, and there are nearly 3.9 million registered voters in the state. Not only that, there are a substantial number of registered independent voters who don’t vote in the primary but do show up in November.

Organizationally, the DFL has the advantage with experienced and effective voter ID and get-out-the-vote operations. The GOP state party is weak and won’t be able to do much to help its candidates this year.

But the main issue for DFLers is their hatred of Donald Trump, which often blinds them to the real issues voters care about. If the economy is booming on Election Day, gas prices are down, and the international situation is stable, liberal turnout might be depressed. Additionally, the fraud issue is not going away any time soon, nor are failing DFL policies which are driving individuals and businesses to leave the state.

Minnesota’s midterm results could be the biggest surprise this election year.