“Minnewisowa” Is Upset

I coined the term “Minnewisowa” in 2004 in a Washington Times op-ed to describe the usually similar electoral behavior of three contiguous states — Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa — in recent elections. These three states together deliver 26 electoral votes, a potentially critical total in a close presidential race.

In the years since, Minnesota has remained the most consistently blue state of the three, while Iowa has trended redder and Wisconsin has remained a hotly contested battleground. However, similar geographies and demographics mean that similar political pressures still influence the outcome of elections in the region.

In the critical 2026 national midterm elections, with control of the U.S. House and Senate up for grabs along with major gubernatorial contests, the megastate of Minnewisowa could again be vitally important to the direction of the country.

In Minnesota, Democrats’ margins of victory have been shrinking in recent cycles. This year, however, that blue advantage appears to have all but evaporated, and the indications are that Republicans could win several statewide races there. Conservatives are excitedly speculating whether Gopher State voters may deliver a repeat of the “Minnesota Massacre” of 1978, when the GOP won the governorship and two U.S. Senate seats as part of an upset sweep of state elections — despite major polls just before Election Day showing that the Democrats would win by big margins.

The immediate cause of Minnesota’s sudden competitiveness this year has been revelations alleging widespread fraud in state programs amounting to billions of taxpayer dollars, although the Democrats’ policies resulting in higher taxes, increased regulations on business, and failing schools have been turning off voters more and more in recent years.

Neighboring Iowa, on the other hand, has become increasingly a red state in recent years, but in 2026 polls have indicated a surge for Democrats and their nominees, particularly in the open races for governor and U.S. Senate. Although each of the states of Minnewisowa is a major agricultural center, farmers in Iowa have been hardest hit by high energy costs. With both the popular GOP governor and GOP Senator Joni Ernst retiring, Democrats have nominated strong candidates this cycle for the open seats and are making the election this November quite competitive.

Sensing this, President Trump recently campaigned in the state, which he carried by a big margin in 2024, and announced a new $15 billion steel mill to be located in Lee County, creating nearly 2,000 new permanent jobs and up to 6,000 construction jobs.

While Minnesota has leaned blue recently and Iowa has leaned red, Wisconsin has remained purple, electing Democrats and Republicans to statewide office and its legislature. The major race this year is to replace the two-term Democrat Governor Tony Evers. Like the other two states in Minnewisowa this cycle, local issues and local responses dominate the voter mood.

Socialist State Rep. Francesca Hong was initially favored in the polls to be the Democrats’ nominee, but she was upset in the primary by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had withdrawn too late to have his name removed from the ballot and won with a last-minute surge from moderate liberals who feared Hong was too radical for Wisconsin voters. The Republican nominee is Congressman Tom Tiffany, who ran against Evers in 2022 and lost.

The race is close, with Crowley holding a small 3.5-point edge in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Like Minnesota and Iowa, Democrats have their voter base in the largest cities in Wisconsin, while Republicans lead in rural areas.

Political megastates like Minnewisowa, unlike the individual states which are their components, can disappear over time if they develop sharply different demographics or local issues. The outlier mood this year in Minnesota, caused by revelations of state fraud, might only last this cycle, but it could also lead to a new political dynamic. A new major steel industry in Iowa might also change its politics in future cycles. If a socialist had won the Democrat gubernatorial nomination in Wisconsin, it might no longer be a purple state.

The results in Minnewisowa on November 3 thus might not only have a major impact on control of Congress in 2027 – they could also reverberate in 2028 and beyond.