Midterm Red Surges in Deep Blue States?

Every national election cycle has its political anomalies. So far in the 2026 cycle, at least two appear to be surfacing: conservative (red) surges in the very long-standing liberal (blue) states of Oregon and Minnesota.

Each of these states has elected liberal progressive statewide candidates for decades. But this year, conservatives could be poised for major victories despite the historical trend of the president’s party struggling in the midterm cycle.

A Democrat has been governor of Oregon since 1987. The current governor is Tina Kotek, who won four years ago and is running for a second term against Republican State Senator Christine Drazan – who was also Kotek’s opponent in 2022. Kotek won that race narrowly, 46.9 percent to 43.5 percent, with independent candidate Betsy Johnson winning 8.6 percent of the vote. Johnson notably ran a center-right campaign, likely splitting the moderate Republican vote.

This time, however, there is no major third-party candidate, and Drazan is running several points ahead of Kotek in the latest poll. That survey found Drazan leading Kotek 48 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Notably, 59 percent of respondents said they felt Oregon was on the wrong track. Drazan, if she continues her current momentum, could end the long GOP drought in Salem.

Oregon, like neighboring Washington and California, moved sharply to the left decades ago. The major coastal metros of Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco became the poster cities of radical urban governance that saw businesses leaving the state, declining police funding, violent protests, on-the-street homelessness and gang warfare, and increased crime.

Meanwhile, liberal dominance is also in peril in Minnesota, where the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) has held all the statewide offices, including both U.S. Senate seats, since 2011. Republicans last won a Senate seat there in 2002, but revelations of massive fraud in state-supervised welfare programs have shaken this long-time liberal political stronghold.

Minnesota is led by Governor Tim Walz, whose performance as Kamala Harris’s vice-presidential running mate made him a national joke in 2024. Following the fraud revelations beginning in 2025, his standing among Minnesota voters fell dramatically, and he was forced to rescind his initial announcement that he would run for re-election this year. Despite exiting the race, his tarnished legacy hangs like a dark cloud over the DFL candidates.

Incumbent DFL Senator Tina Smith is also not running for re-election in 2026. Two well-known DFLers announced bids to replace her: Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, an outspoken figure from the party’s radical progressive wing, and 2nd District Congresswoman Angie Craig, a more moderate liberal figure. Their primary race has become an ugly battle of attack ads. It is not clear which of them will win the August 11 primary. Flanagan has received most of the major endorsements, but Craig has raised the most money. Flanagan has her base of support in Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Craig is strong in the suburbs.

As the two DFL candidates spend precious time and resources attacking one another, Republicans have their strongest nominee in 20 years this cycle in Michele Tafoya, a first-time political candidate who is widely known as a sports broadcaster. Polls show her way ahead in the GOP primary, scheduled for August 11.

Tafoya describes herself as a “pro-choice Republican,” supporting abortion “up to a point,” which may anger some conservatives. But the data shows that this could be an asset in November with suburban women and independent voters across the state. With no voting record to attack, but already showing herself well-informed on the issues, Tafoya represents a key potential Senate pickup for Republicans this year.

A possible red wave in Minnesota could also include the defeat of the radical state attorney general, Keith Ellison, and the pickup of Craig’s congressional seat by Republican Eric Pratt.

These countertrends in Oregon and Minnesota are not happening in a political vacuum. Both these states have been dominated by Democrats and liberal policies for decades. High taxes, heavy regulation, woke cultural values, excessive welfare programs, and anti-business attitudes are not working in these and other blue states. Successful individuals and businesses are fleeing to red states with lower taxes, fewer regulations, and conservative values.

In short, national Democrat momentum in 2026 is being overridden in Oregon and Minnesota by long-term economic and cultural concerns. With long-established political machinery and get-out-the-vote party organizations, Democrats might still win in November, but voters are running out of patience with liberal failures. The neo-socialist trend among Democrat candidates in this and recent cycles only further complicates their prospects going forward.

Ultimately, voters will only put up with so much. With the right candidates, Republicans can win elections this year in deep blue states.