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Is New York in Play for 2024?

Posted on Wednesday, January 10, 2024
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by Andrew Shirley
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52 Comments

AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Shirley

President Donald J. Trump waves as he disembarks Marine One at the Wall Street landing zone in New York City

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News released on January 2, former President Donald Trump stated his intention to make a “heavy play” to win liberal strongholds – including deep blue New York.

While Trump’s bold plan predictably drew jeers and mockery from media pundits and elected Democrats, some polling suggests that the Empire State might not be out of reach. Moreover, even if Trump doesn’t win the state, a competitive battle there could divert Democrat resources from other battleground states and force the Biden campaign on the defensive in states they thought they’d never have to worry about.

“I’m going to do rallies, I’m going to do speeches, I’m going to work them,” Trump told Breitbart. “I may rent Madison Square Garden and that’s the belly of the beast, right?”

Trump specifically outlined a slate of failures by Democrat leaders in New York that could make the state fertile ground for what would be one of the most shocking political upsets in American history.

“You have migrants living on Madison Avenue,” Trump said. “You can’t get into a hospital. You can’t get into a school… I think it’s really bad and I think the people in New York and New Jersey and a lot of these states are—it would have been semi-unthinkable, but I think these are states that can be won.”

Given recent presidential election results in New York, a GOP victory there in 2024 may seem impossible. The last Republican presidential candidate to carry the state was Ronald Reagan, who won there in both the 1980 and 1984 elections. Since then, the best performances by a Republican presidential nominee were George W. Bush’s 40 percent in 2004 and Trump’s 37.8 percent in 2020.

New York also hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2002 and hasn’t sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1992.

But there are nonetheless some emerging signs that 2024 could see a political earthquake in New York.

Perhaps most alarmingly for the Biden campaign, the president’s lead in a potential rematch with Trump this year has shrunk to just 10 points in the latest Siena poll fielded last November. After Biden won the state by more than 23 points in 2020, his advantage has now been more than cut in half – and that’s without any concerted effort by Trump to flip the state.

In that same poll, just 45 percent of New Yorkers said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, compared to 53 percent who disapprove. 55 percent of Democrats polled said they wanted someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democrat nominee for president.

Other Democrat leaders are also deeply unpopular in New York, creating a potential opportunity for a Republican to capitalize on that discontentment. A Marist poll released last November found Governor Hochul’s approval to be just 41 percent, compared to 42 percent who disapprove of her performance. 59 percent of respondents said quality of life had deteriorated in the state over the past year.

52 percent of respondents in that poll also said they disapproved of the job Hochul was doing to address crime, including a full 35 percent of Democrats. Democrat Mayor Eric Adams is in even worse shape with only a 28 percent job approval.

Issue polling further supports the idea that Trump could compete in New York in 2024. In another Siena poll released last August, 82 percent of New Yorkers said the influx of migrants into the state was a “serious problem.” 58 percent of respondents – including 48 percent of Democrats – said, “New Yorkers have already done enough for new migrants and should now work to slow the flow of migrants to New York.” Since then, the migrant crisis has only gotten worse, and now at least one school has been closed to students in order to house migrants.

The brewing intraparty war among Democrats over the response to the Israel-Gaza war could be another big problem for Biden and other down-ballot Democrats this November. While New York’s 1.6 million Jewish residents typically skew heavily liberal, Democrats’ lackluster response to the outpouring of antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment from the left might cost them big at the ballot box.

Recent electoral results in New York also suggest that Republicans still have a fighting chance in the state.

GOP Congressman Lee Zeldin ran within five points of incumbent Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in 2022’s gubernatorial contest. Along with Zeldin’s strong showing, Republicans flipped six competitive House seats, including the ouster of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney – perhaps the crowning achievement for House Republicans in the midterm elections.

In 2024, Democrats will face their toughest political landscape in decades in New York. Whether or not it will be enough for Trump or another potential Republican nominee to have a shot at victory there remains to be seen, but at the very least it is an opportunity that should not be ignored.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.

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PaulE
PaulE
3 months ago

Why do a lot of these authors simply choose to ignore legal events in Democrat run states before writing these pieces? Facts do matter, as one cannot rely on wishful thinking to win elections or anything else.

The Democrat Party in NYS sued to have the 2022 state election maps, which define voting districts within the state, thrown out after they lost 5 congressional seats in the state to Republicans in the House of Representatives in the last election. The NYS Supreme Court, which by the way is populated 100% by Democrat appointees who vote to support the Democrat agenda 100% of the time on major issues, ruled last month in favor of the Democrat Party. Now the NYS State Legislature, which is also completely controlled by the Democrat Party, will draw up new voting districts ahead of the 2024 elections that will…wait for it…favor Democrats. They said as much after the Court ruling in local news outlets. Big surprise huh? Not really. That is how most Democrat run states stay Democrat run states. Forget thumb on the scale. Try pushing down hard on the scale with both hands, while the public whistles past the graveyard of the republic.

Since those 5 NYS state seats were critical to flipping the House of Representatives from Democrat control to Republican control in 2022, their very real potential loss in 2024 under how the Democrats are rejiggering the districts, will most likely result in Hakeem Jeffries being the new Speaker of the House in 2025. By the way, a similar action was also done in the state of Wisconsin, after the new Democrat State Supreme Court judge there pulled a similar move. Think of that as an added insurance policy to ensure the desired outcome. So, the Democrat Party continues to be hard at work, in broad daylight, to ensure they can undermine the will of the people ahead of the next election. Still think there is a happy middle ground where Socialists and non-Socialists can peacefully coexist in harmony? Ask the people of Hong Kong, Venezuela, Brazil, and other Utopias how that is working out.

Morbious
Morbious
3 months ago

For NY to flip, jewish voters would need to question their decades long love affair with the demon party. Then they would have to decide to divorce it. The same holds true for black voters in NY. Much ink has been spilled re the latter but so far it hasn’t happened. But daydreaming can be entertaining.

Jeri
Jeri
3 months ago

Did I hear correctly…NYC schools are closed and using virtual learning BECAUSE the city is housing illegals in said schools? If true, beyond wrong.

Fred Noel
Fred Noel
3 months ago

The. New York Democrats. She been cheating and stealing elections for The last 30 or 40 years. No one is going to overcome this cheating. Just look how they keep the Governorship in 2022.I grew up on Staten Island. Except for Staten Island the rest of the city were Democratic the rest of the state was consecutive Independents or Republican. The city population just overwhelmed the rest of the state. A lot of dead people voted in NYC.

Theresa Coughlin
Theresa Coughlin
3 months ago

I hope New York is in play for 2024 because democratic one party rule has been a disaster.

Broccoli Free Zone
Broccoli Free Zone
3 months ago

The Donald could purchase MSG if they don’t let him use it. He is the first president that LOST money while in office. He cannot be bribed with a few million dollars, because he has BILLIONS, and loves America.

A Voter
A Voter
3 months ago

If anyone can, it would be Trump.

Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
3 months ago

There are not enough honest thinking people in new york for it to be in play. new york people are stupid people . so they just vote D for dumb

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
3 months ago

Republicans will probably increase their vote numbers in deep blue states like NY and CA, because everyone are victims of the same economy and crime statistics but, unfortunately, not enough ppl who can will vote and too many stupid ones will!

Paul
Paul
3 months ago

The state of NewYork is the Armpit of the Northeast.
Historically look who they’ve voted for!

Song
Song
3 months ago

Don’t allow Democratic gerrymandering. And Defeat Democratic justices in NY supreme Court and state senate.

Charles Rodenas
Charles Rodenas
3 months ago

New York State is basically a Red State from Northern Rockland on up. It’s NYC that consistently turns NY filthy blue…

Randy
Randy
3 months ago

Elise Stefanik will be Trumps VP pick in the effort to win New York

Bill
Bill
3 months ago

People downstate have to start waking up

Joanne
Joanne
3 months ago

All the folks that would have voted for Trump have already voted – with their feet. Why stay and fight the leftist monsters when escape is so much better?

Andrew P
Andrew P
3 months ago

RFK could make the contest in NY interesting, and even help to flip it. Especially if the Israel-Palestinian war continues and intensifies, and Biden is forced to pander more and more to the Palestinians. RFK supports Israel, and that could give him an opening to get 30%.

ScottinVA
ScottinVA
3 months ago

New in play for anyone besides democrats? No chance… not now, not ever.

johnh
johnh
3 months ago

From what I remember New York voters gave a pretty low numbers of votes to Trump. I always wonder what is going on when the home state & town do not vote for the local candidate. Books I have read do not give Trump a thumbs up in the past so why now?

Myrna
Myrna
3 months ago

We don’t know but there is hope. We need a leader who will not give up.

MBlanc46
MBlanc46
3 months ago

Under no plausible assumptions will New Yorkers ever again vote for a Repub presidential candidate. And very likely not a Senate candidate.

Socratic Thought
Socratic Thought
3 months ago

I doubt it. But if New York state could be split into a NYC-state and Upstate NY, the political results would benefit conservatives at last. It’s a beautiful dream!

STT
STT
3 months ago

Vivek Ramaswamy Repeatedly DISMANTLES Delusional Reporter! – Video
commoncts.blogspot.com/2024/01/vivek-ramaswamy-repeatedly-dismantles.html

Howard Charles Yourow, S.J.D.
Howard Charles Yourow, S.J.D.
3 months ago

NYS hope for an alternative < No Labels / New Leaders ’24 > upset ?
Only takes 34 % of the pop vote !

Andrew Shirley
Andrew Shirley
3 months ago

Depressing that the world’s only superpower is likely going to have to choose between these two geriatrics as their president.

Del
Del
3 months ago

The Andrew Shirley’s of the world never cease to amaze as well as entertain. In his warped view with zero evidence, what he is saying is suburban women in NY are going to say to themselves “gee I will gladly give up my right to make a decision on abortion even if go to jail because of the border” and Jewish voters will say, “gee I will vote for a political party who believe all Jews are going to hell because their not Christian. By the way Andrew, Jewish voters overwhelmingly approve of the support Biden has given to Israel.

Donald J Trump V
Donald J Trump V
3 months ago

I will be discussing here the abuse within my family.

I will protect my son Donald J Trump VI and grandson Donald J Trump VII from anybody who would try to abuse them.

My father Donald J Trump IV was a loudmouth who screamed at me frequently but at least he didn’t hit me.

My grandfather Donald J Trump III was a physical and mental abuser and beat me and my father.

My great grandfather Donald J Trump Jr was even worse. He abused his family and others and committed crimes on an international scale.

My great great grandfather Donald J Trump was not only the worst person in my family but the worst person in American history. He cheated his way to the presidency with the help of Russia in 2016. His presidency was a disaster in every way. He then lost the 2020 election but denied that he ever lost and led an insurrection. Then he was elected to a second term in 2024 with the help of massive cheating. He was an even worse president the second time around. He tried to stop the 2028 election and declared himself president for life. He refused to leave the White House on January 20, 2029 and was dragged out by secret service agents. I’m ashamed to be his great great grandson.

My great great great grandfather Fred Trump has a horrible legacy too.

An older blonde women laughing in the kitchen with a grey haired man.
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