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Biden Defeat Could Shatter the Democrat Coalition

Posted on Thursday, July 11, 2024
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by Andrew Shirley
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98 Comments
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If polls are accurate and President Joe Biden continues to reject calls from within his own party to withdraw from the race, he will very likely lose to former President Donald Trump this November. But that loss might not just mean another four years in the White House for Trump – it could also shatter an already fracturing Democrat Party coalition.

Following Biden’s debate-night debacle, the dominant storyline in American politics, aside from whether Biden will remain in the race, has been full-on panic and infighting from Democrat strategists and elected officials. A growing number of House Democrats have already called on Biden to step down, while some have resigned themselves to the strong likelihood of a Trump victory.

Other Democrats, meanwhile, have dug their heels in, refusing to budge on their support for the president. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have both unequivocally backed Biden, helping stem further defections – at least for the moment.

The rift over Biden’s continued candidacy among elected Democrats reflects a rift within the Democrat voting base as well. While Biden’s debate fiasco has exacerbated these divisions, they have been stewing for more than a decade, and could result in a dramatic implosion of the Democrat Party coalition come November.

Former President Barack Obama’s solid victories in both the Electoral College and popular vote in 2008 and 2012 seemed to confirm a popular narrative on the left that America’s changing demographics would soon hand Democrats a virtually unbeatable and permanent electoral majority.

As the theory went, a growing coalition of minorities, young people, women, and college-educated professionals – all of whom were at the time reliable Democrat voting blocs – along with the old Democrat constituency of working-class whites would leave Republicans with a smaller and smaller base of support. In 2002, political “experts” John Judis and Ruy Teixeira articulated this Democrat dream in their now notoriously wrong book, The Emerging Democratic Majority. Obama’s election as a U.S. Senator in 2004 and subsequent meteoric rise to the White House four years later made him the embodiment of this theory.

During the 2016 election, however, this narrative, already called into question by Democrats’ “shellacking” in the 2010 midterms and GOP gains in 2014, began to come crashing down.

During the Democrat primaries that year, many within Obama’s coalition, particularly young people, favored Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. But the Democrat establishment backed Hillary Clinton. After the election, the website WikiLeaks released internal Democratic National Committee emails appearing to show that the party was actively working against a Sanders nomination in favor of Clinton. The entire DNC leadership resigned following these revelations.

This behind-the-scenes conniving by DNC leadership to undermine the will of the voters left many Democrats from Obama’s coalition feeling betrayed, and some exit polling data suggests that Sanders supporters staying home may have cost Clinton dearly in key swing states.

At the same time, Trump in 2016 began chipping away at Democrats’ support with minority voters and peeling off large swaths of working-class whites. Clinton failed to reach the level of support with black voters that Obama did in 2012, again costing her big in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that decided the election. Trump’s strong numbers with blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt likewise proved instrumental in his upset victory.

In 2020, the Democrat establishment once again mobilized to take down an insurgent campaign from Bernie Sanders. Biden, whose campaign was all but finished after a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, suddenly emerged as the frontrunner after a strong showing in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday races.

Despite the Democrat establishment again suppressing the will of its own base, Biden, leaning heavily on his association with Barack Obama, managed to cobble together enough of the old coalition to eke out a victory. But still, signs of a crumbling base of support persisted, with Trump improving slightly with black voters and substantially with Hispanic voters over his 2016 numbers.

Four years later, however, the Obama coalition is in shambles. Some polls have shown that Trump’s support with black voters has more than doubled from 2020 numbers to 22 percent. Other surveys have found that Trump has cut Biden’s lead with young people from 23 points to just 8 points.

If those numbers are even close to accurate, it would amount to nothing less than the complete collapse of Democrats’ coalition and a fundamental shift in American electoral politics.

Nonetheless, the Democrat establishment appears to still be attempting to force a candidate on voters that few have any interest in. Even before Biden’s horrific debate, most Democrats wanted someone other than the 81-year-old career politician at the top of their ticket. But the Democrat Party machine ensured that no one could challenge the president in an open primary.

If it is indeed the case that Obama’s coalition has been damaged beyond repair and will finally come crashing down on November 5, Democrat elites and the corporate media will have no one but themselves to blame.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.

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Barbara Brun
Barbara Brun
3 days ago

I’m worried how desperate the democrats are about losing their power. That’s why many, not a majority, they are refusing to vote against non citizens ability to vote! Again, they will cheat the USA Citizens of a free election. Biden will not sign HB 8281, the Voter Eligibility Act. I pray for our Country that the far left insanity is stopped. Please save our country.

Nancy
Nancy
3 days ago

Biden will win if we don’t clean up the election fraud – the democrats will always win. We need to clean up the mess.

Thinking
Thinking
3 days ago

The truth about O and Joe is coming out. The manipulation of the voters is coming to an end. The elites are losing their grip on the dems plan to rule America forever and ever. 2020 was their last hoorah. And 2024 will be when the dems will be found guilty for their plan to destroy America. Vote for America in 2024. Vote Trump.

Rik
Rik
3 days ago

People, Biden and the Democratic Party Leadership are trying to change America from Capitalism to Socialism/Marxism and when and if I should probably be dead and gone! Four years of Bidenomics and the price of gasoline is now costing me $5/gallon, a 29 cent bagel is now $1 and a Senior discount cup of coffee at McDonald’s which used to cost me 99 cents is now $2.99! HOW STUPID CAN PEOPLE BE TO VOTE FOR BIDEN?

Jack Davis
Jack Davis
3 days ago

I believe it’s time Christian Americans go to their knees and pray that the democrats loose. I believe the country is in danger it the democrats win again.
if they win where in for trouble like we’ve never seen before.
America pray.

John Bass
John Bass
3 days ago

If we’ve learned anything at all, we should know by now that absolutely nothing will happen to those that tried bringing down this country, even those that have blatantly committed treason…just saying, and you know it true.

We need to take a page out of history and deal with this socialist cancer and all those involved with it, just like our founding fathers would have.

R Anthony Botti
R Anthony Botti
3 days ago

it’s imperative that the People don’t re-enact Election Day 2022. How many voters didn’t go to the polls because they were lulled into a false sense of security about the GOP supposedly having the election in the bag? No matter how many times we’re that victory is certain, every one of us needs to help MAKE it certain by showing up to vote!

Duluth Tom
Duluth Tom
3 days ago

My greatest concern is complacency by conservative voters. All these stories that Trump is going to win handily can suppress our turnout with lazy voters. Push all your conservative friends to vote. It’ll carry over to other candidates down ticket. Maybe then we can recapture the soul of this country. It has been damaged so badly these last 4 yrs, but it’s not dead! Yet!

Gary
Gary
3 days ago

A Biden victory in November will give us a President Harris for four years . And, amazingly , NO ONE is vetting her . She’s the stealth candidate . Everyone knows that Joe is not able to be our president . The Democrats have painted themselves into a corner . Biden blocked Primary challengers and now has ALL the Delegates . So, this means , Joe Biden is the nominee of the Democrat party . All those Delegates are required to vote for Biden on the first ballot at the DNC . I think it’s too late for the Democrat National Committee to change the rules . So, they’re stuck with each other .

anna hubert
anna hubert
3 days ago

Anyone yearning to follow Obama’s way just look at Africa There is your future He learned on daddy’s knee

Darlene H Bowman
Darlene H Bowman
3 days ago

Let Bidsen stay in until the election. No he doesn’t belong in the office never did. My concerns are for Kennedy he will spilt the american votes. Only good thing is the last articles regarding his behavior that my push him out. Rather have Biden running then Harris or Obama

Ralph
Ralph
3 days ago

Make ELECTION DAY a Federal Holiday. No Excuses for not voting in person on ELECTION DAY. Absentee Ballots only for Military persons on duty and people in hospitals. No stuffing collection boxes.

Norma
Norma
3 days ago

I hope so. I am so tired of he control, corruption and greed in that party.

anna hubert
anna hubert
3 days ago

Biden did not win the first time He is a fraud We know it they know it Surely no one thinks dems will be reluctant to cheat again That is their tactic Even with different candidate same policies Same chaos, maybe worse

VoterAnn
VoterAnn
3 days ago

I would not be so sure that the Senate Majority Leader’s support for Biden is “unequivocal.” When questioned by the press, he repeatedly said “I’m with Joe,” a less than enthusiastic comment. One thing will always be true about Chuck Schumer: he is a master of double-speak on every issue. I still remember the news footage of his threatening Supreme Court Justices but never being held accountable for his endorsement of violence against conservatives. He regularly puts the lie to the expression SO beloved by the current administration: “No one is above the law!”

John Shipway
John Shipway
3 days ago

Mr. Shirley, like too y conservative scribblers sure are under-estimating the ability of the DNC and its lemming like acolytes to fraudulently cheat when it comes to election time. Even in the 2020 fraud of the eons, the cheating was open and the few, as in countable with the digits on one hand, that were punished in any manner got a firm slap on the wrist at most followed by high positions in organizations established to better the crimes they happened to be mildly punished for.
All this “its in the bag for Trump”, and “Old Joe is done”, BS is just that, BS and the cheating this coming fall will dwarf the horrors of 2020 with results drastically speeding the decline in the tiny bit left of this nation. I mean, my God look at the damage a brain dead old perverted thief has done to this country in a mere 3.5 years.
Stop with the overconfidence please!!

Donald King
Donald King
3 days ago

Dyed in the wool Progressive/Socialist [Democrat] Party members will always vote for that party no matter how badly they mess up our nation. So, with the help of the main stream media being on their team, they could very well hold the coalition together. If they manage to be successful in doing this, any non-voting Republicans are helping them to be successful in accomplishing this. If every registered Republican voter showed up at the poles in support of the party, nothing could prevent a win, even considering the liberal’s antics. Pure numbers could win out in the end.

izitnottrue
izitnottrue
3 days ago

Should the Democrats lose in November the United States would be saved from their progressive agenda. I never have understood why Democrat leadership doesn’t like the American people.

uncleferd
uncleferd
3 days ago

The direct translation of the phrase, “a Trump Presidency will threaten Democracy”, is………. “PLEASE don’t vote for the guy who will have us all investigated, tried, and incarcerated for our crimes.”
These ethically and morally challenged “Democrats” knew Biden would cover for them, as he has always done with fellow birds of that feather.
Now, due to Biden’s loose mental state, the prospect of Trump in the White House again has ALL of these crooks quaking in their boots…because ALL of these crooks have done a lot worse than supress info about their relationship with born stars, hookers, and whomever….
Hmmm…. I wonder how many of these self-important knuckleheads would be in legal jeopardy after one Trump term…

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
3 days ago

Aw, the cheerleader wants to break up with the quarterback because he threw no touchdowns and lost the homecoming game. Boo-hoo. If the polls were reversed, these liars would still be calling every incident a “cheap fake” swearing Biden is “sharp as a tack”.

Ray Doyle LFP, WA
Ray Doyle LFP, WA
3 days ago

good, the democrats are just a small tent with a large number of stupid freaks smashed into it.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
3 days ago

Good can END the DNC Finally

Bernard
Bernard
3 days ago

Don’t talk or hesitate: get out the vote and bury these Marxists.

Gary
Gary
3 days ago

Too soon to swoon. We can’t afford to believe the election is a snap or indeed that it is over. No way Biden really won “fair and square” the last time. Now that SOME of the cover-up is exposed, Democrats won’t worry so much about saving face. They should be expected to play as dirty as it takes to win. We need to press on to get out mega-records in Republican voter turnout for this election. God Bless America.

Melinda
Melinda
3 days ago

I don’t understand how people can’t tell the difference between an 81 year old frail, inept man and a 78 year old who is still vigorous and coherent. Blinded by ideology, I suppose.

Summer Sands
Summer Sands
3 days ago

The Democratic Party is dead and has been for more than 40 years. This new democratic party needs to be renamed for what it truly is, the communist/socialist party. Any true Democrat supporting these cretins, like shmuck chumer, ninny piglosi, lyin’ joe biden, the awful obtuse cretin (aoc), and the rest of the cabal, is a traitor.
I was a Democrat, now and Independent. I will NEVER support communism/socialism and I will NEVER vote for a democrat, aka a demoncrap. These turds were released from the sewer of hell to wreak havoc on the United States of America and her Citizens. They ALL need to be flushed back to where they came from. They are all rotten to the core and they have betrayed the US Citizens time and time again. Get them all out of office and end their reign of traitorous terror.

stewart
stewart
3 days ago

One can only hope before it is too late. Another 4 years of Biden the country will be in trouble.

Raymond Waldorf
Raymond Waldorf
3 days ago

I sure hope Mr. Shirely’s assessment comes true. In this election, young people who don’t support Israel may sit out this election but may not in future elections. Many have been brainwashed via K-12 education and then college by progressive teachers. Hopefully, Mr. Trump will win, and his VP may continue his legacy for the next eight years. If Republicans had 12 years, we could reverse our country’s slide away from a Constitutional Republic to Marxist Socialism.
I’m not sure how the younger generations will vote in future elections. Or how the immigrants from South, Central America, and Mexico will vote in future elections. They must be horrified by the Gay, Trans, and abortion-to-birth agenda since they are mainly Roman Catholic. Yet, the Democrats give out Section 8 housing, free medical, and food stamps – so they must be conflicted on how to vote if they need all those social services.
I am a 69-year-old Republican who grew up in NY and has lived in CA for 40 years. I also lived in Pennsylvania and Colorado. In all those states, Democrat voters in the large cities determined how the entire state was ruled. By the way, I support the Electoral College so that minority voices have a say in Federal elections. I continue to vote, although my vote doesn’t count in local, state, or Federal elections.

Philip Seth Hammersley
Philip Seth Hammersley
3 days ago

We MUST keep pressing regardless of polls or Bidumb’s self-destruction. Play like we are way BEHIND. If we are ahead in the presidential race, we still need more House and Senate seats. Don’t let the polls or pundits lull you to sleep!

Donald Willis
Donald Willis
3 days ago

You need to have a TRUTH and X share button

susabella
susabella
3 days ago

That’s what we are hoping for. 4 years of Trump, then 8 years of a good Republican, DeSantis is my choice, but the VP whoever he/she is, will probably take the number one spot, so hope and pray for a wonderful VP. DeSantis is young enough to run in 2036. I probably won’t be here then, but I’ll be watching from up above.

Centurion
Centurion
2 days ago

“…Barack Obama’s solid victories in both the Electoral College and popular vote in 2008 and 2012 seemed to confirm … Democrats a virtually unbeatable and permanent electoral majority.”
The only reason Barry won anything was because of the color of his skin. Nobody wanted to appear racist. Anyone who calls me a ‘racist’ will end up with a bloody nose, a knife at his throat and me asking him to say it again.
Proud to be a ‘deplorable’ and a ‘racist’ who voted AGAINST killary and barry!

Jacko Cleamons
Jacko Cleamons
2 days ago

Trump’s been wise to let the D’s have the spotlight and not pile on Biden. I have to hand it to him, though I’m not a fan of his generally (though he’s not as bad as any D alternative IMO). We should hope Biden can hang onto the D nomination because then he’ll lose to Trump. If D’s replace Biden they could still lose but might also win.

Pat R
Pat R
2 days ago

I wish people in media, article writers, etc., would stop all the “polls” this and “polls” that indicate Trump is ahead of Biden, etc., etc. It only serves to make a lot of GOP voters who planned to vote for Trump to stay home thinking they don’t have to bother since he’s gonna win in a landslide. Nov 5, 2019 should have drove home the fact that polls don’t settle things at all.
I don’t doubt a lot of the prognosticators of who’s winning in the polls is put out there by Dems just for that purpose – so Trump voters will think since it’s “in the bag”, they don’t need to make the effort. GO VOTE, whether you feel like it or not. Every vote counts!!!

Sam
Sam
3 days ago

I strongly believe the democrats have been stealing elections for years. Hillary Clinton’s reaction after the election against Trump put her in total shock. Apparently they didn’t stuff ballot boxes enough to defeat the popularly of Trump. Her husband only won twice because of interference provided by Ross Perot. Democrats over did it for Bidens obvious election fraud so at this point they believe the only way to win is to buy votes and allow illegals to vote along with canceled loan graduates. They know no matter how much they try to convince us the economy is great it’s not working against free thinking citizens.
Newt Gingrich was right the best hope for America is TERM LIMITS that William J Clinton VETOED.
TRUMP / NUGENT 2024

lothar
lothar
3 days ago

there is ONE thing that all common people have in common regardless of race , sex or sexual orientation and thats money ! they all have to make ends meet and pay the bills and if they have problem doing so they vote accordingly

Dan Johanningmeeier
Dan Johanningmeeier
3 days ago

Please dear Lord!

lothar
lothar
3 days ago

the democratic coalition mostly held up because there was no obvious conflict between the different groups forcing the party to pick a side and because the republican party had nothing to offer to them .
But those dynamics have changed , exhibit A is israel , the democratic coalition includes jews and muslims both never been friendly to eachother but the party didnt get into the fray , this changed with the war in gaza forcing the party to pick sides and exposing the faultlines between progressive lawmakers and pro israel supporters with progressives hurling insults at jews and jews returning the favor by using aipac trying to oust progressives its a full blown war within the party that will cost the party in november . Sure jews are not likely to come running to vote GOP in droves but them sitting out the election could tilt the balance in some districts .

SailorJerry
SailorJerry
3 days ago

Concur strongly with Mr. Shirley’s conclusions.

Susan
Susan
2 days ago

Great idea!…make election day a federal holiday! No absentee ballots for anyone non-military or not medically confined. Also make it a law to show proof of citizenship before one is able to register to vote. Make it a rule at the DMV or wherever one can register that they MUST show proof of citizenship. If that is not an option, make it a law that anyone wishing to vote needs to show proof of citizenship to the poll worker. This is not complicated.

cupera1
cupera1
2 days ago

When in doubt, follow the money. IF we see a drop off in money being given to Biden from doners is when the DNC will force Biden out.

Edward Mullin
Edward Mullin
2 days ago

Lawfare appears to be as far as Democrats/ State appears to be comfortable with for now. I think that more extreme measures are beyond the scope of what Democrats are willing to try.

Tony
Tony
3 days ago

Only the most ardent Democrat apologist refuses to see what we all see – Biden is a mumbling, bumbling basket-case, who cannot handle the 3:00am phone call (because he doesn’t work past 4:00pm). And also, we all see the grotesque cover-up that has been perpetuated on us by the White House and their lackeys in the media. It’s over. Stop pretending.

Richard
Richard
1 day ago

Like Doctur Faustus the Democrats sealed a deal with the Devil that has come due. Biden was fine until exposure of his conditions caused Democrat embarrassment and polling to plummet. At best he is a co President junior partner to a multilayered cabal of overlapping wizards with various agendas manipulating policy behind the curtains, flattering him and filtering information and access to him. Democrat big tent constituencies like inner city minorities and working class folks, especially white in flyover country,have been left behind. The DNC is focused on luxury ideologies of affluent well educated elites in the knowledge sectors of media, law, academia, and social justice crusading.

Barbara
Barbara
1 day ago

And Trump is the threat to America and our democracy? This spells it out quite clearly who the threat to democracy really is. The powers that be in the democratic part will get what they want even if it goes against what their constituents want. People mean absolutely nothing to them, it’s all about the money the power the CONTROL!

Joanne4 justice
Joanne4 justice
1 day ago

The Yuppie Left RADICAL DEM, PARTY deserves to shatter, and DISAPPEAR !!!!

caseyp
caseyp
1 day ago

This is a plea for everybody to PLEASE vote this November. Please do not sit home thinking that President Trump has this one in the bag.
It will make no difference if Trump wins and Republicans do not take a commanding majority in the House and Senate. It’s VERY important that everybody goes to vote so they can vote down ballot.
I rescanned the channels on my TV the other night. When I was going through the channels to see which ones to weed out, I saw some guy already spewing impeachment if Trump gets elected for violating the Logan Act. He said that Trump met with Putin and asked him to release Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter held in a Moscow prison to help him win the election. Some other guest on the Andrew Wilkow show was also speaking about the Democrats already meeting to find ways to impeach Trump if he’s elected. It’s going to be 2016-2020 all over again.
Please pass this on to all your friends and encourage them to PLEASE go vote. This one matters. Thanks.
PLEASE vote this November. Please do not sit home thinking that President Trump has this one in the bag.
It will make no difference if Trump wins and Republicans do not take a commanding majority in the House and Senate. It’s VERY important that everybody goes to vote so they can vote down ballot.
I rescanned the channels on my TV the other night. When I was going through the channels to see which ones to weed out, I saw some guy already spewing impeachment if Trump gets elected for violating the Logan Act. He said that Trump met with Putin and asked him to release Evan Gershkovich (which is a lie), the Wall Street Journal reporter held in a Moscow prison to help him win the election. Another guest on the Andrew Wilkow show also spoke about the Democrats already meeting to find ways to impeach Trump if he’s elected. It’s going to be 2016-2020 all over again.

Mike
Mike
2 days ago

2024 will open the flood gates on just how corrupt the Democrats are. I’ve been waiting to see the truth reveal itself and it’s finally exposing its ugly self. The Democrats are going to cheat and lie to win this upcoming election. Get the vote out because this is the end for America if Joe Biden, or whoever takes his place wins this election.

David R Mueller
David R Mueller
2 days ago

This may well be–the shattering of the Democrat “coalition”. But what will the Republicans do? Already, with all due respect to Trump, the *main* things the conservatives in America have been supporting the GOP for are being “softened”. Do we *truly* trade the socialist Democrats for nothing more than a slightly less “woke” party? No, thanks.

Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
Kyle Buy you some guns,and learn how to shoot
2 days ago

DEms. been around 200 years. They aint goin nowhere. Kyle L.

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