Well, Donald Trump has done it again!
He stumped the chumps. The “chumps” in this case were the “blue-chip” academic and financial economists whose consensus forecast this time last year was of high inflation and low economic growth. Wrong on both counts.
As you’ve probably heard, the GDP growth for Q3 came in at a red-hot 4.3%, following 3.5% for the second quarter. Some 90% of professional economists got it wrong — all underestimating the strength of the Trump economy. QED: These weren’t random errors. These were “hate Trump” errors.
They also predicted inflation of above 3% for 2025. It’s going to come in at closer to 2.7%, with the last two months trending down to the Fed inflation target of 2%.
Starting in the second quarter, GDP has been nearly twice as high as predicted.
To quote the inimitable special agent Maxwell Smart, “Missed it by that much.”
This isn’t the first time the whiz kids whiffed on the Trump economy. These are the same Keynesian economists who warned at the start of Trump’s first term that we would see a stock market crash. The stock market is today at record highs on all three indices. Paul Krugman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics and wrote regularly for The New York Times for years, famously feared a second Great Depression if Trump’s policies took hold.
Krugman and others all thought Trump’s tariffs would ignite runaway inflation. There’s no doubt tariffs did cause a rise in aluminum, coffee, and beef prices — commodities that got hit by tariffs as high as 50%. But the economic pundits failed to take account of the disinflationary effect of pro-growth Trump policies like deregulation, tax rate cuts, and pro-America energy policies. These counteracted the impact of tariffs on prices overall.
One would have thought that the academics and media would have learned from their mistakes of always underestimating Trump on the economy. But they seem incapable of self-correcting.
The latest blue-chip forecast for economic growth for 2026 is a measly 1.9%, even though the economy has been growing 50% faster than that of late.
This raises the question: Why are they persistently wrong? It could be that they are so afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome that they can’t see or shoot straight. No one likes their theories and core beliefs proven wrong. It was John Maynard Keynes who once famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind — what do you do, sir?”
His disciples seem incapable of changing their minds.
If these blue-chippers had any integrity, they’d admit that they don’t know what they are talking about and send their Ivy League PhDs.
Fat chance that will ever happen. Instead, these prophets of doom will continue to give the entire economics profession a black eye. No wonder it is known as “the dismal science.”
Stephen Moore is a former Trump senior economic adviser and the cofounder of Unleash Prosperity, which advocates for education freedom for all children.
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The economists didn’t get it wrong – they did what all good Leftists do all the time, which is lie. They are fully invested in destroying Mr. Trump and his agenda, and if the nation goes down the drain in the process, they are fine with that, as long as Mr. Trump is not permitted to succeed.
Biden did everything he could to ruin this economy and nation. Ruining everything he touches is the only thing he has accomplished. It’s a miracle Trump could turn it around as well as he has and this is only the beginning.
Mr. Greenberg, you nailed it. I must say, the leftists are getting very monotonous and are making themselves look totally inept by their actions. The harder they try to take President Trump and good, solid policy down, the more they hang themselves.
These economists must go to the same seminars that the MSM pollsters go to. Always overhyping the loser liberal and under estimating Trump.
And approximately 98% of these ‘can only guess’ so-called economy experts are No-Trumpers, fed into the mega-corrupt, lying, far left-wing Fake News media, which is overflowing with extremely biased TDS-suffering Socialists, and fully committed Communists.
The difference between a business man and a career politician!
It has been said that God created economists so that meteorologists wouldn’t be the only ones wrong most of the time…
Of course the economists predicted a tough 2025. Let’s remember that the end of the Biden administration featured an extended period of “inverted interest rates.” When the rates un-invert, the economy invariably experiences a recession.
It mostly happened — the U.S. had negative GDP during the first quarter of 2025.
Amazingly, Trump somehow disoriented the stock market and avoided a technical recession, even though the first part of 2025 felt like we were in a recession.
Yep, Trump pulled off an economic miracle in 2025.