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Is Biden Slipping in PA?

Posted on Friday, April 26, 2024
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by Shane Harris
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55 Comments
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AMAC EXCLUSIVE

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on his Build Back Better agenda, Wednesday, October 20, 2021, at the Electric City Trolley Museum in Scranton, Pennsylvania. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on his Build Back Better agenda at the Electric City Trolley Museum in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

As Pennsylvanians cast their ballots in the state’s primaries on April 23, perhaps the most intriguing political development in the Keystone State was not the winners and losers from Tuesday’s contests, but rather President Joe Biden’s highly unusual three-day swing through the state in the week leading up to primary day.

As a general rule, presidents rarely spend so much time at once in one state during an election year – particularly a president like Biden who spends most of his time cloistered in the White House or at his beach house in Delaware. That Biden’s handlers felt the need to ferry him around Pennsylvania suggests that the Biden campaign rightly has serious concerns about their prospects this November if they lose there.

Biden traveled to Scranton, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia during the trip, at each stop attempting to portray himself as the candidate most concerned with “kitchen table issues” this election. In Scranton, where the president often says he grew up (in reality his family moved away when he was 10) Biden blamed former President Donald Trump for pandemic job losses and alleged that the 2017 Trump tax cuts only benefitted the wealthy. (IRS tax data actually shows the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefitted middle and working-class Americans most.)

But as much as Biden hoped to make Trump out to be the bad guy for Pennsylvanians, it is Biden’s policies which have wreaked havoc on the state over the last four years. In March, Pennsylvania’s Democrat governor even took the unusual step of criticizing Biden’s ban on natural gas exports, which play a vital role in Pennsylvania’s economy.

It was also in Pennsylvania where Biden for the first time unveiled his “Bidenomics” messaging, something that has backfired enormously with voters. His promises of a blue-collar boom have proven to be a fantasy in the old industrial parts of the state, while new red tape on oil, natural gas, and coal production have led to mass layoffs. Biden’s electric vehicle mandate is also a major liability in any oil state, including Pennsylvania.

Given Biden’s poll numbers in Pennsylvania and the brewing voter anger over his policies, it’s easy to see why the president and his team are concerned. The president has just a 39 percent approval rating in the Keystone State according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, just below his 40 percent approval rating nationwide.

Biden holds just the slightest of edges over Trump in the RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania average, 46.7 percent to 46.3 percent. But Trump now leads Biden in some state polls, including a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey fielded from April 8 to 13.

Moreover, back in 2020, Biden carried a 4.7-point polling lead with him into Election Day and managed to secure the state by 1.2 points. With six months to go, the state is a true toss up, and there is no room for error.

Looking at the electoral map, Biden’s path to a second term narrows dramatically without Pennsylvania, which he officially won by just over 80,000 votes in 2020 following controversy over changes to state election laws.

According to most analysts, there are seven truly competitive states this election: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which account for a combined 93 electoral votes. According to the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump currently leads in all of those states except for Michigan, where he trails by two, and Pennsylvania, where it is a virtual tie. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes make it the largest swing state and thus one of the biggest prizes on election night.

Trump’s strong poll numbers in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin give him good reason to believe he can still win the election even without Michigan and Pennsylvania. But for Biden, losing the Keystone State shrinks the map immensely.

Without Pennsylvania, Biden will almost certainly need to win either North Carolina or Georgia, where he currently trails Trump by five and four points, respectively. If Trump takes Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he wins.

Assuming Biden does not win Pennsylvania and wins one of North Carolina or Georgia, as well as Michigan (the only swing state where he current leads) he must also then win either the other of North Carolina/Georgia or two of three in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, where he trails by two, five, and five points, respectively. If Biden does not win Michigan, he must then win three of four in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.

Any of those scenarios would require Biden to win multiple states where he currently trails by at least four points, an outcome that seems unlikely while losing Pennsylvania. The state-level polls will almost certainly change between now and Election Day. But the reality is that Trump may have more electoral wiggle room than Biden – something which was not true at this time in 2020 or 2016.

Moreover, Biden is in the unenviable position of trying to shift public perception of him while being physically and mentally unable to run a vigorous campaign. From a strategic standpoint, betting the house on Pennsylvania might be the Biden team’s best – and only – option.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @ShaneHarris513.

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Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
23 days ago

Will you give poor Joe a break already? How can anyone function under the same pressures? After all, he’s too distraught since his uncle was eaten by cannibals!

uncleferd
uncleferd
23 days ago

Well, I sure do hope that “President” Biden is “slipping in PA”. Come to think of it, he’s done nothing BUT slip in every role he’s ever had in both legislation and governance.
I hope is that he, his ruined son and his DOJ allies “slip” into a long, restful incarceration for the growing list of crimes committed, including election fraud, illegal surveillance of the 2116 Trump campaign, lying to the FISA Court, and accepting bribes from foreign enemies.

michaelR
michaelR
23 days ago

He can’t run on ANYTHING he’s done. So he stands in front of people and says, “we will give you this, we will give you that”! He is the greatest “debt master” in US history. Worthless policies one after another is all his administration is good for.

Patricia
Patricia
23 days ago

I pray that Biden is losing Pennsylvania Pennsylvanians better wake Biden is a communist and very corrupt

kom
kom
23 days ago

Polls are misleading and I’m tired of the media playing word salad with the truth.

NoDem
NoDem
23 days ago

Anyone with half a brain who has followed Biden and what he has done to the detriment of this country should vote Republican without hesitation.

Staber
Staber
23 days ago

Being a Pennsylvanian, I hope that my fellow Pennsylvanians wake up and stop voting for the old and long gone Democrat party. I’m tired of the stupid that exists around me.

Pete from St Pete
Pete from St Pete
23 days ago

As the last presidential election showed, the Democrats can probably overcome a narrow loss by cheating in vote counting in Philadelphia alone.

johnh
johnh
23 days ago

Biden is slipping everywhere due to his war on fossil fuels and will not admit that this is inflation problem. The wind farms are turning out to be a major flop: and they have short life, make too much noise, killing wildlife, and taking up valuable farmland or offshore ocean.
Wake up Man!

Jan13
Jan13
23 days ago

The farther Joe falls in the polls, the more “ Trumped” up charges against President Trump. Be interesting to see what else they come up with.

Thinking
Thinking
23 days ago

I still think ole Joe’s approval ratings are too high. Why almost 40% of the voters are for him? With all that he has done? And the many things he doesn’t do anything about. Like America being overrun by Hamas demonstrations. They are not pro Palestinians protesters they are Hamas. Financed by Iran via Soros. Look at the fancy tent cities that sprung up all over the university campuses overnight. It is an organized effort and ole Joe Bama says they are good people. Plagiarizing Trump. If his popularity drops to 20% then I will be hopeful of a Republican win. Right now I don’t see it. We have to go about the strategy totally different. It is not a race between ole Joe Bama and Trump. It is between an ideology of total government control over the people (democrats) or running the country By the people, For the people and Of the people which shall not be infringed.

anna hubert
anna hubert
23 days ago

It is beyond astonishing that there still are people considering and willing to vote for him What more can he possibly do for people to wake up and see the catastrophic disaster

Myrna
Myrna
23 days ago

We have to pray that sober, wide awake citizens care and have courage and vote.
I hear Jesus saying “Could you not watch with me???”

Jeri
Jeri
23 days ago

If FJB is “sharp as a tack” as Michael Douglas says, prove it. Challenge Trump to multiple debates. Trump wants to debate in NYC immediately. Step up and show America what you are all about. I’m sure, many like myself want to see what you got.

phoenix
phoenix
23 days ago

Biden is going to win an all time high of 400,000 votes and all 54 states!

Martin B
Martin B
23 days ago

This is the year of disclosure and 2025 will be the year of restitution. Keep your faith as it looks as though our country will fall. It is necessary to bring people to the precipice.

Melinda
Melinda
23 days ago

Not sure I trust polls, given the cheating that is a certainty. A lot can happen between now and November.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
23 days ago

Hope so nationwide then awesome Under-%

uncleferd
uncleferd
23 days ago

PUBLIC MESSAGE – there is an “8,500% RedWave” donation email going around. I dug into it and believe it is spam… if you see it, please investigate before clicking…

gin
gin
22 days ago

It would be so great if people voting in this country were the ones whose names were on the ballot they cast. The democrats harvest ballots and vote them as they wish.

Stephanie
Stephanie
22 days ago

Please Lord God don’t let these voters decide that Biden is the best candidate for president.

zoe frost
zoe frost
22 days ago

How in the hell does FJB, an actual corrupt, unindicted felon (as outlined by Hur) puppet marching to Communist and Globalist elite’s tune, destroying our country with deliberately destructive regs, EOs, using JoeBama’s weaponized DOJ/FBI/IRS against their opposition, have a 40% approval rating nationwide???
Either the numbers are bogus, or they’re lying about who they poll, because its exclusively their indoctrinated, propagandized walking stupid useful idiots, people on the dole, and where Communist/Socialists hang out. There is no freakin’ way anyone paying attention to the traitor’s krap are voting for JoeBama; that’s suicide!

Rik
Rik
22 days ago

Slipping? No, Jackass Joe Biden IS THE WORST PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY and he’s just solidifying his stance!

Norma
Norma
14 days ago

I HOPE SO! VOTERS NEED TO WAKE UP AND STOP biden’s INSANITY.

Randall L. Beatty
Randall L. Beatty
20 days ago

For what he has done to this country if anyone votes for him then they just do not know the facts and there hate for President Trump they will stay with Biden no matter what condition this country is in. Joe needs to go no matter what we need to have a better country then what Biden has given us we deserve much better.

Fred
Fred
20 days ago

Yes I hope Bidumb slips off the PA ballot like he has slipped down the stairs of Air Force One and various podiums. My wife’s family is from PA and I think PA is smarter than to vote for Bidumb!

Lloyd Grisham
Lloyd Grisham
21 days ago

How could anyone vote for Biden? He has done nothing but try to destroy this country. This administration has been a complete disaster.

Dr. C
Dr. C
22 days ago

Joe Birdbrain isn’t worried, he has his masters, who will fix the election just as before. He will have the mail-in ballots from bogus and dead persons, plus his alien army who will often and early.

invictus
invictus
22 days ago

Firstly, Biden is no ‘president’ and should be regarded as a squatter, an unlawful person (in many ways) who situated his ku klux klan-neonazi azz in the wh. Add that multitudes of Americans have cut ties from the deceptive pro-segregation slob, tiring of his circus antics, lies (about everything), pretentions, and his preference of folding like a broke-down lawn chair. He, his allies, and media are counting on decent people to stop talking about truths. He and they are counting on us being too tired, too stressed, too busy, and mostly too distracted—hence the multiple laughable distractions to keep us from eyeing the ball. He and they are hoping we give up and become submissive to the very-dark side. Don’t stop talking, no matter how long it takes or what they may do against the citizenry.

Craig in Houston
Craig in Houston
22 days ago

I can simplify the victory paths. If Trump wins any one of the Blue Wall states he wins. Dem Governors with heavy fingers on the scales plus all those ballot drop boxes in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee will make that difficult. More likely he needs to win Omaha. NE 2nd Congressional District is EV 269 and Trump wins the House tiebreaker. He won it in 2016, lost in 2020 and there is zero polling there in 2024, so who knows.

johnh
johnh
23 days ago

I wonder if Biden realizes that his ice cream cones just might contain microscopic plastic particles? And any comments on that.

johnh
johnh
23 days ago

About six months ago, poll showed *60% of voters did not want either Trump or Biden in 2024. And here we are today looking at what both of the parties think of what the voters want & question our common sense & love of USA to prosper for future generations.

Jim
Jim
23 days ago

It won’t be close. Biden will win PA easily because the Dems have a massive mail-in-ballot operational advantage.Trump has sabotaged the Republican vote.

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