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Battle for Senate Control Intensifies as Early Voting Begins

Posted on Thursday, September 19, 2024
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by Shane Harris
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53 Comments
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With early voting already underway in some states and starting soon in dozens more, the 2024 election has officially begun. In the all-important race for control of the U.S. Senate, Republicans appear to have a clear edge – but Democrats still have hope that they can retain control of the chamber or at least limit GOP gains.

Coming into this cycle, Republicans had what appeared to be one of the most favorable maps in years. While the GOP is defending just 11 seats, Democrats are defending an astonishing 23.

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate, meaning that a net loss of even one seat puts them at a 50-50 tie. In this scenario, control of the Senate would be determined by whichever ticket wins the White House by virtue of the vice president’s role as President of the Senate.

Of Republicans’ 11 seats, eight are rated as “Solid GOP,” while one (Josh Hawley in Missouri) is rated “Likely GOP” by Real Clear Politics (RCP). Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas is rated as “Leans GOP,” while Rick Scott’s seat in Florida is rated as a toss-up.

According to the latest RCP polling, Cruz is leading Democrat opponent Colin Allred by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent. Scott, meanwhile, leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46.3 percent to 42 percent. Both Allred and Mucarsel-Powell are current Democrat members of the U.S. House.

Republicans should not take anything for granted with 50 days to go until Election Day, particularly in light of disappointing returns during the 2022 Midterms. But history suggests that the GOP has reason to be optimistic that Cruz and Scott can hang on to their seats.

At this point in 2018, Cruz had an almost identical lead over progressive darling Beto O’Rourke. Despite O’Rourke spending $80 million to Cruz’s $38.9 million, Cruz won by about three points. Allred has so far failed to generate the same national hype as O’Rourke, and is only slightly ahead of Cruz in fundraising.

Scott faced what appeared to be an even more dire situation in Florida six years ago, polling neck and neck with three-term incumbent Bill Nelson. Scott trailed by 2.6 points in the final polls but eked out a victory by just over 10,000 votes. This year, it is Scott that has the incumbency advantage, and the state as a whole has trended Republican in recent cycles.

Moreover, Democrat Party leaders seem to recognize that winning Texas or Florida is still a long shot. Just this week, Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters of Michigan said that, despite his belief that Texas and Florida are “in play,” the party will not be devoting more resources to those races.

If Democrats cannot pull off the unexpected and win in Florida or Texas, they will need to successfully defend all 23 of their seats to retain their majority – a prospect that appears grim given the situation in West Virginia.

With the retirement of Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia, a state that voted for Donald Trump by nearly 30 points in 2020, has become an almost certain Republican pickup. The latest poll in that race, out last month, has Republican nominee Jim Justice leading Democrat nominee Glenn Elliott by 34 points.

Of Democrats’ 22 other seats, RCP rates 11 as “Solid D.” Bob Menendez’s seat in New Jersey and Tim Kaine’s seat in Virginia, meanwhile, are “Likely D.”

Three more races – Maryland’s open seat, Jackie Rosen’s seat in Nevada, and Martin Heinrich’s seat in New Mexico – are rated as “Lean D.” While Republicans certainly still have a fighting chance in these states, particularly Larry Hogan’s bid in Maryland, Democrats have the edge with less than six weeks to go.

That leaves six seats currently held by Democrats that appear to be toss-ups – Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Montana.

As things stand now, then, Republicans appear very likely have at least one pickup in West Virginia, ensuring a 50-50 split if they hold Florida and Texas. Whether the GOP has outright control without needing to win the White House will likely come down to the outcome in these six states.

Of those, Republicans’ best chance for another pickup – and the majority-making 51st seat – appears to be in Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by 5.2 points in the latest RCP average. Sheehy has steadily expanded his lead throughout the course of the year and appears to now have the momentum in the race.

In all of the five remaining races, Democrats currently have a polling lead in the RCP averages. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 4.5 points in Arizona, Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers by five points in Michigan, incumbent Sherrod Brown leads Bernie Moreno by 3.6 points in Ohio, incumbent Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick by 3.5 points in Pennsylvania, and incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Eric Hovde by 5.2 points in Wisconsin.

The Republican candidate could still win in any (or all) of these states. But it does appear that Republicans have some ground to make up here.

Notably, of the five toss-up races where Democrats lead, Ohio is the only state where former President Donald Trump won in 2020. But Trump won all five of these states in 2016 – bringing with him Republican Senators from all but Michigan, which did not have any seats up for re-election that year.

Trump could again prove to be the “X factor” in 2024. If he has a performance on par with 2016, Republicans could be on their way to a 53-55 seat majority – or perhaps even more if they can win more longshot races like those in Maryland and Nevada. If the results more closely mirror 2020, however, the GOP is more likely to have to make do with 51 seats.

Regardless, Republicans appear to be in a solid position to reclaim the majority next January. Now it is just up to GOP candidates and leadership to keep pressing forward and working to aggressively expand the map to ensure that majority is as large as it can possibly be.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.

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Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
26 days ago

“Are you better off now then 4 years ago?” If you aren’t but STILL voting for Democrats, you get what you deserve. But like a drowning man, do you have to drag the rest of us down with you?

Joe
Joe
26 days ago

Praying for conservative control in the Senate and House, along with DJT back in the WH. It’s time to fire Schumer, who sent the SAVE ACT to its grave. And with McConnell leaving, maybe we can get a firebrand conservative running the Senate. It’s a steep climb, so keep praying!!!

Marie
Marie
26 days ago

Seeing what is at stake RIGHT now, not just in our country but ALSO for the whole world, it is prudent for all of us to disregard our emotional choices for our leaders & vote for the person who is likely to be respected & feared by our enemies to SECURE world PEACE.

Melinda
Melinda
26 days ago

Regardless of outcome, i think its ridiculous to be voting six weeks before election day. There is no reasonable justification for this, but gives time for more shenanigans.

Thinking
Thinking
26 days ago

The dems have so much money Hawley and Cruz have been targeted to be unseated. Cheney personally is putting money into Cruz’s opponent campaign to defeat him. It’s up to the voters now if they have the backbone to vote these guys back in. The country needs them. Their respective states needs them. Heck the whole country needs them. Don’t let the elites become the rulers of this country. All these dem candidates for the House and Senate are puppets of the elites. VOTE REPUBLICAN ALL THE WAY.

Summer Sands
Summer Sands
26 days ago

Better wise up folks. We have so much at stake. Voting democrat is voting for worse than beijing joe biden. Good ol’ komrade kacklin’ kammy and tampon tim have every intention of tearing down our borders completely, and paying for illegal aliens to have homes, healthcare, food, education, and anything else they want. Our sovereignty is at risk as they are in lockstep with the united nations to disarm law-abiding American Citizens and take all of our rights away, including property ownership. These people are evil and they intend to do very bad things to our Country and Citizens.

Rik!
Rik!
26 days ago

When I first turned old enough to vote, my mother said that we were Democrats because they represented the Middle Class. But it was President Nixon that saved me from being drafted by cutting back the draft lottery from 213 to 196 when I was 1A and my lottery number was 203. But if my mother was alive today she too would change to Republican because her family had escaped Russia because of Communism! It’s amazing that 90% of the mainstream media doesn’t challenge the Democrats when they LIE unashamedly everytime they speak! Thank God for Fox News! This country will surely become Communist if the Democrats are allowed to “STEAL” this next election too!

BACKWOODS
BACKWOODS
26 days ago

A vote for Democrats is a vote to end the Constitutional Republic. You will lose 1st & 2nd Amendments and become a slave to the Global Cabal( COMMUNISM)

Larry
Larry
26 days ago

Democrats when they have the House and the Senate, do what they do best… Waste Time and Taxpayer money.

Marie
Marie
26 days ago

Who changed our “election day” to multiple days? Isn’t that against the Constitution? Leave it to Democrats to change everything to favor them…..extended days opens cheating.

PatriotEric66
PatriotEric66
26 days ago

Things are starting to look up! Don’t get complacent … get out and vote like your life depends on it … because it does. SAVE AMERICA AGAIN! Trump 2024

Sean Rickman
Sean Rickman
26 days ago

At the start of the article it was posted that Republicans have the edge.Not so with the way the democrats do things.They will do anything to keep their”GOLDEN GOOSE”alive.The democrats are corrupt and evil.They want to save democracy when their version of democracy is marxism.They think that government control is the best for the”SHEEP”,thats us,but when I see and listen to them they strike me as anti AMERICAN’hog slop”.I really fear for the real AMERICA.

Susan
Susan
26 days ago

My concern is election integrity. What has changed to make voting secure and honest amid machines with parts from China and ballot harvesting from the deceased and illegal immigrants?
Without honesty, the number of votes is irrelevant.

dba
dba
26 days ago

Early rigging more accurate description with the Fascist cartel at the helm like all other communist controlled countries.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
26 days ago

CA we get our ballots on 10-7

mike Jankanish
mike Jankanish
24 days ago

Harris was her usual self on Ophrah; talked a lot and said nothing.

Glen
Glen
26 days ago

The QUESTION IS: IF the Republicans gain the majority in the House and Senate, Will they do ANYTHING, or will this be like the last time they had the majority? The did very little worthwhile when the could have made a very large difference. I have voted Republican all my life, but the RINO’S have made my vote worthless too many times over the last 60 years. Donald Trump or no other person can improve our situation by themselves. America needs a majority of Politicians who BELIEVE in limited government to Shrink the Federal Bureaucracy IE close down the FED, close down Federal Ed –(States should run education so they are not blackmailed into using Fed propaganda to get Federal $$$), ET, ETC. Federal Control of State programs makes it very easy to control the entire country, and that folks is why we are in the shape we are in today. Sadly the majority of our politicians and people in the “Federal Bureaucracy” do NOT BELIEVE in God let alone follow the precepts in the Holy Bible in making decisions regarding running this Country “The United States of America.

Veteran
Veteran
26 days ago

Anyone still voting for a Democrat is blind, deaf, and dumb, or a communist himself but then again I repeat myself.

anna hubert
anna hubert
26 days ago

We are reminded daily about the thin edge and the number of people very pro democrat. Can’t help it but am very skeptical and smell a rat the size of a pig.

Maverick7011
Maverick7011
23 days ago

Consider messaging in the states receiving all of the disgruntled, illegal, citizens who have abandoned, by force, their homes in radical states like CA, NY, MN, MI, IL, fled to FL, ID, MT, TX, AZ.

George Kamburoff
George Kamburoff
24 days ago

Four years ago was the Terrible Year 2020. Remember the 70 million unemployed, the dead economy, the deaths from COVID going for one million dead Americans?
Do you want that again?

cupera1
cupera1
24 days ago

VOTE EARLY if you can. If you don’t vote democrats can change your address and send out a mail in ballot. The address will be some small apartment building with a DNC operative that will collect all the ballots that are unclaimed. Those ballots will be given to an NGO that will fill out the ballot, sign it and send it back. If the person does go to the polls on election day the workers there will say have recorded that they have already voted by mail.
WE should work like we are ten points down to Karmala. When you go to vote you must bring ten people with you to the polls.  

stephen stewart
stephen stewart
25 days ago

Sent 1 in Aug. 14th and 24th never received a ballot. Live in Pa

George Kamburoff
George Kamburoff
24 days ago

Four years ago was the terrible year 2020, in the Trump Depression, The Trump Covid, the Trump lies the hateful craziness.
Who would want that again?.

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