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AUGUST Politics: 5 Potential Game-Changers

Posted on Friday, August 4, 2023
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by Shane Harris
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AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

August

With Congress in recess and Americans enjoying the last weeks of summer, August is typically a slow political news month. But a number of simmering developments are worth paying close attention to this year.

What Will the First GOP Primary Debate Look Like?

Republicans are scheduled to host their first presidential primary debate on August 23.

So far, seven candidates have met the requirements to make the debate stage: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum. Other candidates have until August 21 to qualify.

The biggest remaining question is whether or not frontrunner Donald Trump will be at the debate in Milwaukee. With a 35-point lead in the latest RealClearPolitics average, there appears to be little political incentive for Trump to attend, and the former president has said that he’s undecided on the matter.

If Trump does appear, it will automatically make the GOP debate the biggest media event of the summer. But as AMAC Newsline reported last month, Trump’s absence could render the event largely irrelevant, thus further solidifying his stranglehold on the nomination.

Either way, it’s a big news story with significant ramifications for the 2024 race.

Can Ron DeSantis Recover?

It’s make-or-break time for the DeSantis campaign. After surging above 30 percent in the polls in January and closing the gap with Trump to just 13 points, the Florida governor began a downward slide that now has him polling between 15 and 20 percent.

Initially, political analysts predicted DeSantis would be the greatest – and perhaps only – legitimate threat to Trump for the GOP nomination. The governor was on top of the political world after his stunning 20-point re-election victory last year, and had built a $110 million war chest ahead of his announcement in May.

But big spending hasn’t helped his standing with primary voters so far. DeSantis’s PAC has burned through $34 million amid his polling decline, and the campaign has now fired more than 40 percent of its original staff.

If DeSantis is going to recover, it will have to start this month – and will likely require a strong performance in a debate that includes Trump. Without being able to take on the GOP frontrunner directly in front of a national audience (a confrontation it is by no means certain DeSantis would win), it seems doubtful the governor will be able to reverse his fortunes.

If DeSantis continues to falter, the next question is if another candidate will rise to become a serious challenger to Trump – someone like entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has gone from virtual obscurity to polling even with DeSantis in some surveys.

Will Biden’s Corruption Finally Break Through?

Although the House officially adjourned for August recess last Thursday, the House Oversight and Accountability Committee conducted an interview on Monday with Devon Archer, Hunter Biden’s former business partner, as part of a rapidly expanding probe into the Biden family’s corruption.

According to a transcript of Archer’s testimony, the younger Biden “occasionally” put his father on the phone to help close business deals – a revelation which, if true, would confirm Joe Biden has lied repeatedly about his knowledge of and involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings.

This development is just the latest in a series of seemingly damning details unearthed by House Republicans’ probe into the First Family.

As the evidence piles up, the media has been forced to go to increasingly extreme lengths to cover for Biden – including simply ignoring the scandal altogether.

But with the political news drought that typically comes each August, the stories about Biden’s corruption that are already being blasted on conservative outlets may receive more attention.

Moreover, as Democrats, particularly those in purple districts, leave the D.C. bubble and return home, they may find that the Biden corruption saga is a far bigger concern with ordinary voters than the beltway crowd would like to believe – a notion supported by public polling. If moderate Democrats feel that Biden could be an electoral drag on them next year, scrutiny on the president from his own side could ramp up significantly by the time Congress returns in September.

Will Biden Face Public Pressure to Drop Out of the 2024 Race?

House Republicans’ investigation has serious implications for Biden’s 2024 re-election bid. Combine that with mounting concerns about the president’s physical and cognitive decline (just 32 percent of Americans say Biden is mentally sharp enough to effectively serve as president) and the soon-to-be 81-year-old president looks like a less viable candidate by the day.

There’s also the fact that Biden has been slipping in polling on a potential re-match with Trump. Just before Biden announced his re-election plans, even most Democrats said they didn’t want him to run again.

If Biden drops out late in the primary cycle, thrusting the nominating decision on the Democrat establishment, the party will be hard-pressed to deny Kamala Harris the nomination – a prospect that would likely be an electoral disaster given Harris’s historic unpopularity.

With the first primaries rapidly approaching, the calendar dictates that if Democrats are going to force Biden out and pave the way for a legitimate primary contest (thus creating a path for a nominee not named Joe Biden or Kamala Harris) it will have to be soon. August might be the month where signs of such a coup begin to emerge.

Will the Economy Falter?

After two years of dreadful economic headlines, things have begun to look up slightly in the past few months. That’s good news for Biden and Democrats, who have taken a beating in the polls on the state of the economy.

But many economists still believe that the country could enter into recession territory in the second half of the year. Adding to the pessimism, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating earlier this week, citing a “steady deterioration in standards of governance.” The S&P 500 lost almost 7 percent the last time such a downgrade occurred.

If the economy goes south again this month, it will play a significant role in dictating what the rest of the year looks like politically – starting with the battle to fund the government that will begin as soon as Congress returns in September.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @ShaneHarris513.

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Amma
Amma
1 year ago

It seems to be forgotten, but I think Biden’s handling of the Chinese spy balloon needs to be brought up as well. He cannot handle the security of the country.

Jeri
Jeri
1 year ago

Will the economy falter…what planet are you living on? The economy sucks and has been in decline since FJB took office. But please don’t believe me, ask anyone how their wallets and bank accounts are doing…

Rod Noll
Rod Noll
1 year ago

The economy will not improve thanks to the disastrous decision by the Biden administration to shut down our energy independence . Look at the periphal consequences . Fuel prices & inflation across the board for everything !

pete kennedy
pete kennedy
1 year ago

A Trump DeSantis ticket would guarantee 12 years of recovery from the disaster taking place. The Deep State must go down.

Irv C
Irv C
1 year ago

In this section you say; Will the Economy Falter?
it already has. It HORRIBLE!

Nick
Nick
1 year ago

Gas is now $4.00 a gallon in our area for the low 87 octane, it’s much higher for the better gas.
Joe Hiden Biden is responsible for the deaths of 13 service men & women during the
disaster the was the Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s also responsible for the
100,000 deaths each year from fentanyl overdoses because he won’t close our southern
border. His “Bidenomics” promises are wilting on the vine, groceries,
lumber, almost everything is costing 20-40% more, and folks are using their
credit cards for basic needs and not saving anything for the future.
 
If you’re a DemocRAT please let everyone know that you and everyone else who voted for
this failure of a President, stay home on election day in 2024, you’ve caused enough
damage!

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 year ago

“So this is what democracy looks like?” FISA wiretaps on US citizens and the press (if they question the provided narrative), Crossfire Hurricanes, weaponized feds, government colluding social medias,…? All I have to say is: next “insurrection”… try going ARMED. Deep State doesn’t even bother hiding in shadows these days… they’re right there laughing at us!

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

My sense is that the old line dems who rallied for biden in 2020 are unswayed by anything that has occurred since then. They like bidens mindless rage at conservatives and Rs. They dont care if a shadowy cabal is running him as long as they keep moving the country leftward. Pundits on our side have been predicting his disappearance since January 21. If hes only at 39% approval its because the radicals in the party think he’s moving too slowly. They’re unwilling to wait for utopia.

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

No Biden will not face any pressure but Trump sure as hell will Rats are petrified of drowning

Andrew P
Andrew P
1 year ago

#6 Is the Ukraine War going to take a big turn for the worse, as in in the use of nuclear weapons? And if it does, what does Biden do?

Rob
Rob
1 year ago

70 and counting why not make it an even 100 that’s easier to remember. there is more evidence that Joe Biden is a criminal than DT. There is also evidence that Joe Biden was showering with his daughter that alone is worse than anything Trump has done. Joe Biden is a lying, racist pervert.

JoanOMGne 4 justice
JoanOMGne 4 justice
1 year ago

I believe most of these charges are false and magnified by dirty dems and paid Comrades

TooTall7
TooTall7
1 year ago

Good to know someone cares.

Billy
Billy
1 year ago

but your reading political articles about the election and then engaging the comment sections??? yeah that really sounds like someone who wont be watching for two nanoseconds…

TooTall7
TooTall7
1 year ago

Well whaddayaknow, someone it really matters to eh sparky

TooTall7
TooTall7
1 year ago

Doug Burgum? Who in the hell is Doug Burgum?

Toilet Duck
Toilet Duck
1 year ago

What a mistake at a time when we should be looking for a more credible candidate than Trump. You underestimate how much Democrats and Independents despise the guy. For him and Biden to be neck-and-neck in the national polls demonstrates this, at a time where a reasonable politician would mow Biden down in a landslide. Sadly, nothing anyone says about Trump will affect people like you. The worse he gets, the more you support him because you think you’re “sticking it to the libs.” Ditch him and we’ll not only win the presidency but also win Congress back. Don’t, and we’re screwed.

Governor Tim Walz giving a speech at a Podium in September 2024
Fema.gov Disasters USA Government home page under magnifying glass.
Medicaid text sign on calculator with pills and money. Medicaid text calculatoron American paper money with pills and orange prescription bottle

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