WASHINGTON, DC, Sep 9 -- President Trump is not likely to declare a run for re-election in 2024 anytime soon, but polls show that it's becoming more and more likely that he will run and that he is in a position to win the nomination and the presidency. The polls show that the Biden-Harris ticket has been losing independent support and that even some Democrats have become disillusioned with their performance.
In contrast, surveys show that Donald Trump has 67% to 70% support among Republican voters. A straw poll of 3,200 participants at the Dallas Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in July showed that 70% of them wanted to see a Trump ticket in 2024. And just last week, Emerson College reported that a survey they conducted showed that 67% of Republican voters back him for 2024.
Meanwhile, a new Marist poll found that President Biden's approval rating among independents has dropped ten points from 46% to 36% and a Washington Post-ABC survey showed that 57% of independents disapprove of the job Biden is doing.
And, as CBS News put it: "He takes a big hit among independents. They'd given him positive marks in July, but now, more than half disapprove of how he's handling both withdrawing from Afghanistan and his job overall. His overall approval is down within his own Democratic Party — it's still high in the 80s but off its highs in the 90s. And while he had enjoyed a bit of Republican approval through the summer, that has dropped."
The 78-year-old president will be an octogenarian in 2024, and some say it's unlikely that he and Kamala Harris will run for office again. However, Biden announced at a news conference in March that both he and Harris will be on the Democratic ticket in '24, according to the Associated Press. It's early days, and that can change in the coming months. But should Biden decide to call it quits, the selection of Democratic candidates will come into question.
As for Donald Trump's future political plans, he's not ready to make an announcement until after the 2022 mid-term elections. But his political adviser, Jason Miller, told Politico the chances he will run are "between 99 and 100%." And "a recent Emerson College poll showed Trump defeating Biden in a 2024 rematch of last year's election. Trump was favored by 47% of respondents, while 46% chose Biden," according to Politico.
A new issue of Newsweek magazine reports that 49% of voters disapprove of Biden's presidency. The report notes that it mirrors Bill Clinton's rating at the same point of his presidency and is worse than President Obama's rating in 2009. The result: Clinton lost 54 House seats, and Obama lost 63.
The report quotes an unnamed statistical analyst who says that the party has no margin for error because of their razor-thin eight-seat majority in the House. He went on to say that in order for Democrats to be competitive in the midterms, Biden needs an approval rating of 51% or more. The strategist says that Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate an approval rating at 49% or less.
Political analysts Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman co-authored an Opinion Article published online by The Hill. In it, they concluded that "The recent decline in support for President Biden and his administration likely means that the Democratic Party will lose control of the House and potentially the Senate in 2022 — and makes it increasingly likely that Biden will be a one-term president."
Schoen and Cooperman identified the economy, immigration, the pandemic, and Afghanistan as key issues that can hobble the president and the Democratic party in the coming months.
They note that 53% of registered voters disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy; just 39 percent approve, and that 63 percent see Democrats as being "irresponsible and reckless" when it comes to spending,
"Democrats also trail Republicans on immigration, as migrant encounters at the southern border soared to record highs in July. Indeed, our poll finds that voters trust Republicans (46 percent) more than Democrats (37 percent) to address immigration."
Their Op-Ed goes on to note that Biden had a 69% approval rating for its handling of the COVID pandemic back in April, but it has dropped by 16% in the meantime to 53%.
"All that said, Biden's greatest failure as of late is arguably his handling of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Our poll finds that voters largely disapprove (56% to 35%) of the way the withdrawal is occurring. And of those who disapprove, a majority (58%) blame Biden rather than President Trump (12 percent)."
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