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The Rain on Senate Democrats Is Now A Deluge

Posted on Tuesday, March 26, 2024
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by Barry Casselman
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72 Comments
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the US senate building; democrat and republican seats

At the outset of the 2024 U.S. Senate campaign cycle, there was general agreement that eight seats held by Democrats would be in play, and perhaps two seats held by Republicans.

Over the past few days, that estimate has changed dramatically.

Although the two GOP seats could still become competitive, incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz and incumbent Florida Senator Rick Scott now seem likely to hold on to their seats.

On the Democrat side, however, the original battleground seats remain quite vulnerable, while four more seats previously thought to be quite safe are now in play, creating serious problems for the Democrats’ strategists hoping to prevent a big conservative majority in the Senate.

Two of these races already seem to have been decided. In West Virginia, popular GOP Governor Jim Justice has a commanding lead to pick up the seat of retiring Democrat Joe Manchin. In Maryland, former popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan has a double-digit lead over either of his likely Democrat opponents in the race to replace retiring liberal Ben Cardin.

Maryland is a very blue state, and the race wasn’t expected to be close until Hogan’s surprise last-minute candidacy.

These two very likely GOP Senate pick-ups alone would give the conservative party the majority, assuming no Republican seat losses.

The Democrats, however face losing up to 9 or even 10 additional seats they now hold.

Two of those seats are in Montana and Ohio, both strong red states with incumbent Democrats up for re-election this cycle. Senator Jon Tester of

Montana and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio are formidable, but the GOP has come up with especially strong challengers, businessmen Tim Sheehey in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio. Both races are already statistical ties. With Donald Trump likely to carry both states by large margins, these races could be GOP pick-ups in 2024.

In Pennsylvania, likely Republican nominee David McCormick is trailing incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey by a small margin. But McCormick, who lost the 2022 GOP primary by a tiny margin, has no serious primary opponent this cycle, can self-fund, and comes from western Pennsylvania. That region of the state is a usual stronghold for Democrats, but was hit hard by Biden administration energy and economic policies. The Keystone State is purple, but could easily go Republican this year and take down two-termer Casey in the process.

Three western state Democratic senate seats also face real challengers in 2024. Incumbents Jackie Rosen of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and the seat of retiring Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona currently have the Democrats ahead, but Sam Brown in Nevada, Nella Domenici in New Mexico, and Kari Lake in Arizona are potentially strong challengers who could win in 2024.

There are no polls yet in the New Mexico contest, but Domenici is the daughter of Pete Domenici, the very popular long-time senator, and she can self-fund her campaign.

Seats in Michigan and Wisconsin are up for grabs this year as well. When incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement, this seat came into play. Currently, likely liberal nominee Elisa Slotkin has a narrow lead over likely GOP nominee Mike Rogers.

In Wisconsin, incumbent Tammy Baldwin narrowly leads her probable challenger, conservative businessman Eric Hovde. Both these states could go Republican this year.

Finally, two more Democratic seats considered quite safe have unexpectedly come into a degree of play.

In California, liberal House member Adam Schiff has secured the Democratic nomination to replace the late Diane Feinstein. Schiff defeated two more progressive women in the primary, but to do it, he promoted, through paid ads, a Republican baseball celebrity, Steve Garvey. (Since California has an all-party “jungle” primary where the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff in November, it was to Schiff’s advantage to promote Garvey rather than risk facing another Democrat this fall.)

The gambit worked, but perhaps too well. Schiff’s promotion of Republican Garvey also provoked increased GOP turnout statewide, endangering several otherwise safe liberal House seats, making Democrats mad at Schiff. Although Schiff will probably win in November, Garvey’s celebrity status gives him more heft than just being the GOP nominee, and with Republican turnout now likely to be stronger than usual, Schiff will now have to take the race much more seriously to avoid an upset.

New Jersey, like California, is a very blue state, and despite incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Menendez being criminally indicted last year, was expected to elect a Democrat to his seat this year. But Menendez, proclaiming his innocence, refused to resign, and has now said that if he is found not guilty at his imminent May trial, he would run for re-election as an independent. Should that happen, a strong GOP candidate could win the three-way race, although Congressman Andy Kim, now the likely Democratic nominee, remains the favorite.

The recent unexpected political developments in Maryland, New Mexico, California, and now possibly in New Jersey have each enhanced Republican Senate prospects in 2024.

Unlike 2022, when GOP “red wave” optimism turned into a bust on Election Day, Republicans under Senate campaign chair Steve Daines of Montana have recruited strong challengers for most races.

Republicans are not going to win all of the above battleground races, but they do need to win more than the two pick-ups they are now likely to win. Especially if GOP and independent turnout is robust, Republican fundraising is strong, and the GOP successfully counteracts Democratic Election Day strategies, the sudden downpour of political breaks going Republicans’ way signals a very good night for the conservative party this November.

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Gigi
Gigi
6 months ago

A word of caution. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. VOTE VOTE VOTE!

Joe
Joe
6 months ago

I wish I could be as optimistic. The RINOS in the Senate and House are resigning and leaving vacant seats. Commy Jeffries (sp) could very well be Speaker if more “Republicans” resign and give the liberals a House majority. Think of the utter stupidity that will be ruling with a super majority between now and the election, and the destruction they can cause to our Republic by moving the election goalposts with steal-the-election legislation. Nevertheless, VOTE TRUMP!!!!

Max
Max
6 months ago

Every Senate race is in the hands of voters in their respective States provided that any cheating issue can be resolved correctly. Will the voter wake up or continue to believe the lies that the enemy continues to issue out.

Oldrealist
Oldrealist
6 months ago

Republicans have a great chance of winning among actual, legally registered, American citizens.
Democrats are counting on another round of, no doubt improved, fraudulent ballots and ballot counting fraud.
Ballot fraud has gone unpunished, so there is nothing to stop it.

PFArizona
PFArizona
6 months ago

In Arizona, besides Kari Lake, we also have an another strong Republican Senatorial Candidate, Sheriff Mark Lamb who is very experienced and knowledgeable on the Border and Law Enforcement. Two of the top issues for Voters.
He is well known and highly respected.

Larry Hughes
Larry Hughes
6 months ago

The communist democrats will CHEAT, don’t count on ANY republican winning an election, the US was formally overthrown Jan, 6, 2020!

Fred Noel
Fred Noel
6 months ago

Here in Arizona Kari Lake lost the race for Governor. She didn’t exactly lose she was a victim of what Shady Katie Hobbes said were voting irregularities, (aka:Ballot fraud) and election day malfunction. The airway in Arizona are filled with ads for Ruben Gallo a Democrat that’s presently in the U.S. Congress. He votes 100% of the time with the Democrats. He voted not to impeach Mayorkas.
Dirty money PACs will be spending millions of dollars in hateful and dishonest attack campaign ads against Keri Lake. If Gallo wins he’ll just be a lapdog for Chuck Schumer just like Mark Kelly is.
You can bet the farm there will be a repeat of all the voter irregularities that have happened in Arizona over the last four election cycles.

Thinking
Thinking
6 months ago

As long as RINO senators behave themselves and not be like that lady senator from Alaska. She should be ashamed of herself. She only thinks of herself and her state. Think about America as a whole. In order to save America we have to be United. Just like Rona McDonald. going to work for the MSM. The NBC talking heads don’t even want her. Rona were you a Republican in name only? Like a paid job? No loyalty or care about the country? But your wallet? Let us make sure all these senate candidates care about the people in their state and the rest of America, if not we haven’t gained anything and America will become a banana republic because we are almost there. Ole Joe and O have seen to that.

Ron St. Martin
Ron St. Martin
6 months ago

The one catch is the Rino’s in the Senate. Indiana’s Todd Young is one of those Rino’s, he has and will vote against gun rights, he is pro big pharmaceutical and many other issues that are and will be brought before the legislature. These people are what is killing the country, they do the bidding of the rich. People need to research the voting records of all candidates regardless of party!

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
6 months ago

Expanding voter turnout in battleground states? Great news! Now… how’s the GOP going to F- it all up?

Hylon J Heaton
Hylon J Heaton
6 months ago

If Republicans do not get their act together soon, they will lose the 2024 election in a big way. All this in fighting in the federal government is ripping the party apart. Johnson is the leader today but who be the leader tomorrow. Stop the in fighting. In my state of Michigan there is so much in fighting, that I do not know who to support in the upcoming election. The state of Michigan could stay Democrat if we do not quickly get our act together.

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
6 months ago

Tell MTG to shut the hell up until December!!!

uncleferd
uncleferd
6 months ago

I hope all of the above is true. It certainly should be, due to the vast number of Democrats who have chosen the role of “societal deviate” over “legilslator”.
Of course, the Democrat Press will steer everyone as far off-course as humanly possible, so, keep paying attention, everyone!

Stuart I. Anderson
Stuart I. Anderson
6 months ago

West Virginia will have a new Republican senator, but what kind of Republican? Jim Justice is an old southern Democrat who will, at best, be a tepid conservative senator. What WVA needs is a stalwart conservative as its next senator like Rep. Alex Mooney (Heritagae-91%). VOTE MOONEY!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
6 months ago

They seeded this years ago , Reap what U sow

Randall L. Beatty
Randall L. Beatty
6 months ago

People has to look at what is happening in this country and every blue state and what is happening in our government everyone needs to get out and vote and turn things from Blue to Red. We need change in this country before it is to late.Biden and his Team need to go and more Dems that think like him need to go. They will never secure the border we need President Trump back in office to close the border and start deporting people back to there countries.

Debbie Rockwell
Debbie Rockwell
6 months ago

Check out the much needed work Omega4America is doing re: voter fraud. This is the single biggest barrier to winning bar none. We all need to get behind this effort.

SAW
SAW
6 months ago

Uplifting article! I like your premise…

Myrna
Myrna
6 months ago

I very much appreciate this analysis

Rich Swimm
Rich Swimm
6 months ago

I’ll believe it when I see it.

Andrew P
Andrew P
6 months ago

The Democrats, however face losing up to 9 or even 10 additional seats they now hold.

No way they lose that many. 2 or 3 at the most.

uncleferd
uncleferd
6 months ago

I see that the Democrat foot soldiers have “voted down” some written responses that have drawn favor.
It doesn’t matter, because we don’t have the short attention spans that they have. We are RESPONSIBLE, and will still do what matters… while THEY are more focused on benefits like being paid for each trip to a restroom…..

Kathy
Kathy
6 months ago

If you are counting R Senate seat pick-ups don’t count MD as one if “Republican” Larry Hogan were to win that seat. His Dad was the first legislator to turn on Pres. Nixon and Larry proudly wears that to this date. Lock-Down Larry (as we Marylanders not-so-affectionately call him) is a rino of the worst sort. He governed during covid as poorly as any democrat governor did. Larry was anti-Trump from the start and hasn’t changed his tune. He is best buds with the other rino Governor of note, Chris Christie. Hogan being in this race is NO surprise to those of us in MD. He’s always wanted to be in the limelight and being termed out of the governor’s office, this is the only other place he can go. Larry will NEVER caucus with the real republicans. He hates them, Trump, and all of us conservatives. I didn’t vote for him for his second term as governor and I won’t vote for him for Senate.

John
John
6 months ago

I am taking nothing for granite and neither should any thinking patriotic American. Yes VOTE for sure and donate money and time, talk to people and let them know what you think of the current Totalitarian Communist Democrat Party Comrade Regime.
But also don’t forget to be good boy scouts and girl scouts and be prepared.
Buy long term food storage, Ammo, Guns, secure water, alternative energy sources, basic medicine, medical supplies and trade items. ( Coffee, sugar,flour,yeast,gold,silver alcohol)
God Bless America

Dino
Dino
6 months ago

Hogan will go nowhere in spite of favorable poll numbers. He won Maryland in the mid-term voting cycle. He did nothing for Maryland’s Republican Party and practically disowned it. He will be asked if he supports and/or endorses Trump. He will choke on that and be beaten 2 to 1 as Republicans usually are beaten in Maryland. He will get the protest vote and a some diehard party voters. He is not liked in Maryland. I know.

john galt
john galt
6 months ago

3 of the candidates you are talking about here lost their primaries weeks ago. maybe get a better AI to write your crap articles ?

anna hubert
anna hubert
6 months ago

Their umbrella is pretty rain resistant

Patriot Bill
Patriot Bill
6 months ago

Voter fraud had only become worse

Stuart I. Anderson
Stuart I. Anderson
6 months ago

West Virginia will have a new Republican senator, but what kind of Republican? Jim Justice is an old southern Democrat who will be at best a tepid conservative senator. What WVA needs is a real conservative stalwart like Alex Mooney (Heritage-91%) as its new US Senator.

Harry
Harry
6 months ago

If by a miracle GOP can win/hold all three branches (Presidency, House, Senate), one of their first orders of business (after declaring a national emergency at the border, with some kind of military involvement to halt the mass incursions – this is an INVASION, after all!) must be to pass Federal Secure Elections legislation. We must return to a nationwide regime wherein nothing but same-day, in-person voting is allowed, with absentee ballots ONLY being granted to persons with proven serious disability or mobility issues. No more ballot boxes; no more extended mail-in periods for counting ballots; no more ballot “harvesting”. Also, there should be provisions to have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, along with appropriate security, present at every ballot tabulating venue in an oversight capacity.
Democrat cheating must be halted, or the Republic is gone.

Tony K.
Tony K.
6 months ago

What is A.M.A,C doing to help ensure clean elections? It’s nice that the polls show Republicans ahead and winning back the Senate, but if the other side cheats and wins it means absolutely nothing. In addition, what is the Republican party doing to make sure elections are reasonably clean and fair? I’m glad that Mitt’s niece is out at the RNC but will her replacement be able to do the job Ronna couldn’t?

Gweddy
Gweddy
6 months ago

We’re not voting our way out of this, it’s an illusion.

Major
Major
6 months ago

The optimism is nice, but I didn’t see the word ‘fraud’. Dems have the money and power and will ‘win’ at any cost. And anyone who believes that those California and NJ seats can be won is completely mislead. People on the right better vote, no matter what the weather is or what’s on TV. No more excuses. Say what you want about the Dems, but they will do what they are told, clueless about who they are electing.

Sam
Sam
6 months ago

VOTE! Take the Dumbassocrat example. VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN!!! But, by grannies, VOTE!!!

Kevin
Kevin
6 months ago

That Senate outlook seems nice; however, the House is likely to implode before November. Swamp republicans are bailing out. A few more deep state resignations and the democrats will control the House before November. With Jeffries as the Speaker, and the democrats holding the Senate, wait for the fireworks.

Ken Paul
Ken Paul
6 months ago

Problem is, the republicans are doing their very best to blow their control of the House.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
6 months ago

I don’t hear a lot of optimism from the GOP. My theory is they are prepared to lose to get rid of Trump and go back to business as usual. I mean, its not like we’re all going to get mad and vote Democrat in 2028, right? At tu, Brutus?

Alaintha
Alaintha
6 months ago

Now that Kentucky was forced to clean up the Voter’s Registry, McConnell found out he would not be re-elected without the votes of dead voters!!! Thank goodness Moscow Mitch is out! Maybe now Kentucky can find itself conservative again! As for Alaska politics, Alaska has always been a Blood Ties race. To be sure, Alaskan politicians have tunnel vision for Alaska only. Stevens, Murkowski have been household names for generations never ending. Even with the influx from the lower 48 in the 70’s it hasn’t changed the lineage of those in political positions, Alaska is about who you are related to as well as who you know. No breaking into that club. Since the start of the California Escape, Nevada and Arizona will be in turmoil with changes from all sides, then again, who knows how far the reach will be for those that fled California. Oregon itself was overrun with greedy Californians decades ago and you see what Oregon has morphed into sadly (Washington State has suffered the same fate).
Now with this treasonous administration, we will be ruined as the left has been supporting giving I.D., resident information and voting registration to ILLEGALS! No matter the person, it will be the piles of ILLEGAL votes that will make their mark on this election outcome.

Charles Orr
Charles Orr
6 months ago

All assuming fair elelctions . . . .Beware the machines.

Centurion
Centurion
6 months ago

“…Schiff will probably win in November…”

Unfortunately that’s probably true. The demon-communist-cRAT voter fraud machine is alive and well in CA and running in overdrive for November.

Steve
Steve
6 months ago

The Great Migration – Numbers are in on the migration from Blue Counties to Red Counties – 3.7 Million actually!
commoncts.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-great-migration-numbers-are-in-on.html

Bob Chase
Bob Chase
6 months ago

GOP in the House will no doubt offset flipping the Senate.

virginia state flag and voter box
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the economy at a roundtable with business and labor leaders, Friday, November 18, 2022, in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Erin Scott)
jim nicholson and kamala harris with bible and rosary behind them about her anti-catholic acts
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