The Under-the-Radar Trend That Should Have Democrats Concerned

It is always a tricky business to make generalizations based on early turnout in any election. But there is a conspicuous divergence in the Democrat voting pattern this year that may tell us something significant about the outcome of the 2026 midterms.

Democrat voters are far more likely to cast mail-in ballots than are their GOP counterparts. In the 2022 midterms, for example, about 1 in 3 Democrats voted by mail compared to about 1 in 6 Republicans. In the current cycle, however, Democrat requests for mail-in ballots have decreased dramatically.

The Democrat Party line on the plummeting ballot requests is parroted by the Washington Post: “Data from this fall’s early balloting and interviews with officials and voters suggests Americans, particularly Democrats, are moving away from mailing ballots and toward in-person voting and drop boxes, following President Donald Trump’s relentless attack on voting by mail.”

In reality, there is no objective data to support this claim that the decreased use of mail-in ballots by Democrats has been offset by a newfound affinity for in-person voting.

A more likely explanation is a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for the deranged and dangerous candidates their party has nominated for Congress. Democrats, the pundits insist, are far more motivated to vote in the midterms than are their Republican counterparts. We have heard very little from these “experts” about recent polls showing that the gap between extremely motivated Republicans and Democrats has narrowed considerably. This could well be related to the steep decrease in demand for the mail-in ballots Democrats use to vote.

In Iowa, the U.S. Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and state Rep. Josh Turek could decide which party controls the Senate. Iowa has no-excuse absentee voting, but ballots must be requested no later than two weeks before Election Day.

By that deadline in 2022, Democrats had requested 186,133 ballots. This year, they had requested only 74,432. That’s a decrease of 111,701—a 60 percent plunge. In fact, total early votes of all types cast by the Democrats in Iowa declined to 105,774 this election cycle.

In Georgia, the U.S. Senate race between Democrat incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff and former GOP Congressman Mike Collins is another crucial race. The polls show Ossoff with a lead, but requests for absentee ballots have plunged compared to 2022. Georgia doesn’t register voters by party but, as in Iowa, the Democrats are likely behind the slump.

The deadline to request a ballot in Georgia was October 23. In 2022, 271,434 ballots were requested. This year, 157,545 ballots were requested, 42 percent less. Most of these “missing” early voters are almost certainly Democrats.

In Ohio, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is yet another crucial midterm contest this cycle. Applications for absentee ballots have decreased compared to 2022, when 1,000,669 ballots were requested. This cycle, only 713,097 ballots have been requested, a 29 percent drop.

Ohio also doesn’t register voters by party, but the Democrats’ sudden aversion to mail-in votes is probably at play in the Buckeye State. So, it’s likely that this 287,572 vote decrease will hit Brown the hardest.

Minnesota has been one of the big surprises of this midterm cycle. Democrat Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing a serious challenge from Michele Tafoya, a former journalist and sports broadcaster with high name recognition. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Flanagan with a small lead, but a slump in mail-in ballot requests may spell trouble. In 2022, there were 741,738 ballot requests. This cycle there were only 447,340 requests, 40 percent less. Minnesota doesn’t register voters by party, but it may fit the pattern of unenthusiastic Democrats.

Another surprisingly competitive state is Kansas. The Sunflower State last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 1932, but incumbent GOP Senator Roger Marshall is struggling to fend off a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor. Marshall hangs on to a microscopic lead according to the RealClearPolitics average, but a decline in Democrat ballot requests may save him. In 2022, Kansas voters requested 73,698 early ballots. This year, their ballot requests dropped 35 percent to 47,547. This is not a large number of votes, but it is good news for Marshall.

Yet another unexpectedly competitive state is Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing one of the weirdest candidates ever to run in the Lone Star State—James Talarico. Despite the latter’s long history of loony positions, and his mysterious 12-day disappearance from the campaign trail, he is effectively tied with Paxton in the polls.

As for mail-in ballots, Texas only counts those returned to registrars complete. In 2022, they received 319,816 ballots. This year, as of October 24, the number had plummeted to 182,193, a decrease of 43 percent.

The story is cloudier in the remaining competitive states. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed and former congressman Mike Rogers are competing for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Senator Gary Peters. However, Michigan is now one of ten states that keep permanent absentee ballot lists that save the voters the trouble of requesting mail-in ballots. Thus, there is no way to compare the number of “requested” ballots to previous midterms. Likewise, Maine and Alaska have changed their processes, making comparisons to prior elections impossible.

Nonetheless, there are enough states that manage their elections efficiently enough to see that, in 2026, the use of mail-in voting is down significantly when compared to the 2022 midterms. Moreover, because Democrats have voted by mail far more frequently than Republicans, it is reasonable to infer that the purported enthusiasm advantage enjoyed by the Democrats isn’t quite as massive as advertised.