The Next President?

The next President of the United States will not be Donald Trump.

In spite of the early maneuvering of presidential aspirants of both major parties, that is all we know about the next chief executive.

I have been writing about presidential politics for more than 50 years, and already it is evident to me that this next cycle in national politics is going to be, in the classic slang term, a “doozy.”

(A doozy is a word that comes from the late 19^th century as an adjective, and from eastern Ohio as a noun a few years later. It is believed to be derived from the term “daisy” a century before, meaning “extraordinary.” Today, “doozy” has both negative and positive connotations — which makes it an ideal term for 2028.)

It didn’t take long for one of the most well-known potential candidates to make a bold, if highly risky, move for his party’s support in 2028. Vice President J.D. Vance posted a critique of President Trump’s war effort in Iran and of the U.S. relationship with its ally Israel the day after the election. While it might have bolstered support for him among isolationist and dissident ex-Republicans like Tucker Carlson, it provoked a severe backlash among many Republicans who found the commentary and its timing disloyal to the president.

Vance, who had been leading in almost all 2028 GOP polls, unintentionally gave Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s standing a boost. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, also a potential presidential candidate, had an opportunity to denounce his remarks as well.

Vance had understood that the midterm election results were, in large part, a negative voter reaction to President Trump. He likely felt it strategic to separate himself from the man who had selected him to be vice president, but he took the big risk that two years from now, Trump and the war will remain unpopular.

In fact, presidents who took big defeats in their midterms, beginning with President Reagan, have generally recovered their popularity despite the losses of their party’s control of Congress.

Although Rubio, DeSantis, and Vance are now the most well-known GOP presidential hopefuls, there is considerable time for many other candidates to emerge. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Missouri Senator Josh Hawley are among those who might throw their hats into the GOP ring.

Democrats don’t have a frontrunner, although Governor Gavin Newsom led many polls until recently. Former Vice President Kamala Harris also led some polls, but future polls are likely going to feature some of the recently elected political figures.

The current trend of radical and neo-socialist Democrats is likely to dominate 2028 political speculation among Democrats for some time. But more moderate liberals such as Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia won impressive re-elections in red-to-purple states and are frequently mentioned as possible presidential candidates.

Even though Donald Trump will not be the next president, being who he is, he will likely have much impact, positively or negatively, on who will take his place in the Oval Office.

So will economic conditions in the nation two years from now — conditions that no one can do more than guess at what they will be.

The fragile international political environment will also be a factor, especially how the Middle East and Ukraine wars turn out and if China finally makes its move on Taiwan.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there will be surprise developments that few, if anyone, can predict, but which will affect the campaign for president in 2028.

One might have better luck predicting who will win the World Series two years from now than determining who will be the next president.