Three Exit Poll Data Points Republicans Can’t Afford to Ignore

Following a ballot-box drubbing for Republicans on Tuesday, all attention now turns to how the party can pick up the pieces and make a comeback bid in 2028. Exit poll data provides a useful place to start, because it shows where the 2024 coalition that ushered President Donald Trump back to the White House fell apart. Here are a few major takeaways and how the GOP might work to win back these voters over the next two years.

Disaffected Young Voters Swung Hard Toward Democrats

Every exit poll told the same story: young voters shifted hard toward Democrats. New York Times data showed an astonishing 32-point swing from 2024 to 2026 among voters aged 18-29, with Democrats winning that cohort by an eye-popping 41 points. The Associated Press measured an even larger 36-point swing.

Most of that shift appears to have been driven by young men, a group that looked to be trending toward Republicans in recent cycles. Times data showed a 38-point shift among men aged 18-29.

The shift was also especially pronounced among white voters. After Trump won white voters under 30 by 10 points two years ago, they backed Democrats 61 percent to 36 percent on Tuesday, according to Tufts University’s CIRCLE

What isn’t clear from the data is what actually drove this shift. The conventional narrative is that many young people, and young men especially, flipped their vote from Republican to Democrat. But it’s also possible that the young Republican voters from 2024 simply stayed home – perhaps they are disaffected conservatives, not necessarily converted liberals.

But what is obvious is that young people feel like they did not receive what they were promised in 2024, whether that be because housing is still unaffordable, gas prices are still too high, or they simply oppose an unpopular foreign war. Regardless, winning in 2028 means bringing these voters back into the fold.

One interesting note is that men aged 18 to 44 with kids voted to the right of young men without kids by about 40 points, while women in that same age cohort with kids voted about 35 points more Republican than women without kids, according to CNN exit poll data. This suggests that people with children – people who have the most stake in the future of the country – are much more sympathetic to the Republican platform.

Hispanics Are a Key Part of the GOP Coalition

Just as they were in 2024, white voters made up a commanding majority of the electorate – even though that majority has shrunken dramatically in recent years.

But the second-largest racial demographic in the country is Hispanics – and they swung the hardest toward Democrats this year. According to exit poll data from the Times, Hispanics voted 29 points more Democrat than they did in 2024, compared to 18 points more Democrat for Asians, 12 points more Democrat for whites, and 10 points more Democrat for blacks.

The corporate media narrative will likely be that Hispanics were turned off by the Trump administration’s immigration policies. But Trump was remarkably hawkish on immigration during his 2024 campaign – it was no secret what he planned to do once elected. There is a strong case to be made that Trump did so well with Hispanics in 2024 precisely because of his stance on border security and illegal immigration. Illegal aliens undercut jobs and wages for legal immigrants just like they do for native-born Americans.

A more compelling explanation may be that Hispanic voters, who are poorer on average than white voters, have simply been harder hit by elevated fuel costs since the start of the Iran war earlier this year. Trump’s 2024 platform of lower prices, safe streets, and a secure southern border could bring them back into the fold for Republicans in 2028.

Older Voters Remain Republicans’ Bread and Butter

Every single exit poll that this author reviewed showed Republicans losing ground with every demographic – a bleak result, to be sure. But by far the least disastrous results for the GOP came with older voters.

According to exit poll data from the Times, Democrats only gained six points with voters aged 65+ compared to 2024, compared to 13 points with voters aged 45-64, 24 points with voters aged 30-44, and 33 points with voters aged 18-29. Among white voters aged 65+, Democrats gained five points, and just eight points among nonwhite voters in that same cohort.

These results are particularly noteworthy given that a major part of Democrats’ messaging was fearmongering about issues of supreme importance to seniors – primarily the accusation that Republicans are “cutting” Medicare and Medicaid and ridiculous assertions that Republicans are threatening Social Security. Despite the fact that these dishonest campaign tactics were aimed squarely at seniors, it seems that older Americans were more resistant to the “blue wave” that swept the rest of the electorate.

Republicans should keep this in mind looking ahead to 2028. Rebuilding the GOP coalition starts with shoring it up where it is already strong, and that means older voters. Senior-specific issues should be top of mind for the GOP in its messaging.

Were there any results from Tuesday that surprised you? Leave a comment below.