Don’t Blame Trump’s Immigration Crackdown for Republican Midterm Losses

Elected Democrats and their corporate media allies are enthusiastically spreading the narrative that last Tuesday’s election results were a repudiation of the Trump administration’s border and immigration policies and an endorsement of the progressive mass amnesty agenda. But the data simply does not support that conclusion. Reversing course now on mass deportations would not only represent a betrayal of the Republican base that will demoralize GOP voters ahead of 2028, but also be bad policy that undermines the rule of law and only encourages more border mayhem in the future.

President Trump ignited a five-alarm fire among the “America First” faithful over the weekend when he appeared to express interest in an immigration “deal” that would include mass amnesty during an interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes.” On Monday, however, conservatives breathed a collective sigh of relief when the president stated clearly that there would be “no amnesty” and that his policy “hasn’t changed.”

However, the temporary crisis was enough to spark an internal debate among some Republicans about whether mass amnesty should be on the table as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Democrats. The answer should be a resounding “No.”

Exit polling clearly shows that the economy – not immigration – was top of mind for the overwhelming majority of voters. According to data compiled by the social science research firm SSRS, just 27 percent of Democrat U.S. House voters called immigration “crucial” to their vote. Meanwhile, 63 percent said “government corruption” was crucial, while 58 percent and 45 percent said the same of the cost of living and the Iran war, respectively. Even “AI and data centers” (29 percent) beat out immigration enforcement as a crucial factor for Democrat voters.

When asked what their single top issue was, 37 percent of Democrat voters said the economy, while 47 percent said “democracy” and 10 percent said healthcare. Immigration came in tied for fourth with foreign policy at just 3 percent.

CBS News likewise found that 47 percent of Democrat voters named “the state of democracy” as the most important issue to them, followed by 37 percent who chose the economy. Just two percent said immigration was their top concern. The Associated Press reported similar results across all voters, with 4 in 10 voters saying the economy was their top concern, while 3 in 10 pointed to “the state of democracy” and just 1 in 10 said immigration or healthcare.

The idea that immigration enforcement cost Republicans big with Hispanic voters – who made up a crucial element of Trump’s coalition in 2024 – also doesn’t hold up. According to AP, just 15 percent of Hispanics named immigration as their top issue – the same percent as whites. 45 percent of Hispanics pointed to the economy, followed by “the state of democracy” at 26 percent.

Trump won Hispanics in 2024 on an open and unapologetic promise of mass deportations and no mass amnesty. It’s true that Hispanic voters abandoned Republicans this year, but immigration enforcement is not the primary reason they defected.

To be sure, there is a sizable chunk of voters who are upset about Trump’s immigration actions. About 6 in 10 respondents in one AP poll said the Trump administration had gone too far in immigration enforcement. But the claim that immigration enforcement contributed in a major way to the disastrous midterm outcome for the GOP is suspect at best.

One can safely assume that most of the voters who are angry about the Trump administration’s border and deportation policies would prefer a return to Biden’s open borders disaster. Others have undoubtedly been hoodwinked by the appalling corporate media sob stories rebranding illegal alien criminals and deadbeats as upstanding residents.

Moreover, the simple fact is that immigration enforcement remains one of if not the single most important issue for Republican voters. Even with the border secure and mass deportations underway, 47 percent of Republican U.S. House voters this year said immigration enforcement was crucial to their vote – the most of any issue. That was followed by government corruption at 45 percent and the cost of living at 36 percent.

When asked about their single top issue, immigration came in second among Republican voters at 28 percent, following only the economy at 41 percent.

If Republicans abandon secure borders and mass deportations now, it will depress conservative voter turnout and set the stage for another electoral disaster in 2028.

Even if an overwhelming majority of the public supported mass amnesty, that would not be sufficient justification for Trump or any other Republican politician to entertain such a policy. When the Biden administration threw open the border and refused to enforce the nation’s immigration laws, it was waging war on American sovereignty and the rule of law itself.

The United States can be a nation governed by laws, or it can be a nation governed by the emotions of whoever happens to be in power at the time. Simply allowing millions of people to get away with breaking American laws because some people feel bad about enforcing them is a recipe for social upheaval and cultural destruction.

Yes, it is unfortunate when otherwise peaceful and productive people, many of whom work hard and are involved in their communities, are deported for being in the country illegally. Ultimately, however, that is the consequence of breaking the law and violating American sovereignty. That is the price of living in a country governed by a written Constitution and blind justice. The law must be upheld and enforced, even when the outcome is unpleasant. The alternative is anarchy and chaos.

There’s also the fact that illegal immigration (and even some technically “legal” immigration) has catastrophic consequences for the country regardless of whether the new arrivals are violent criminals. At a time when artificial intelligence is laying waste to vast swaths of jobs, the last thing American citizens need is the entire world competing with them for wages and homes. Just because an illegal alien isn’t a rapist or a murderer doesn’t mean that he has not done measurable harm to the American people through his unlawful entry.

The Trump border and immigration agenda has been a historic and unequivocal success, perhaps the most thorough and rapid fulfillment of a major campaign promise in American history. The president should not hesitate now, particularly when Democrats are already telegraphing that they intend to restart the Biden open borders machine the moment they retake the White House. If anything, he should double down.