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GOP Senate Majority Depends on These Three Races

Posted on Thursday, February 15, 2024
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by Alan Jamison
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56 Comments

AMAC Exclusive – By Alan Jamison

GOP senate seats; Casey, Brown, and Tester

If Republicans hope to retake control of the Senate this November for the first time since 2020, it will likely have to come through ousting at least one of the Democrat incumbents in Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), or Montana (Jon Tester).

Democrats currently have a slim 51-49 majority in the upper chamber, meaning that Republicans will have to hold all GOP seats and flip at least one Democrat seat to achieve a majority – although this scenario would require the Republican presidential nominee to win the White House, ensuring a GOP vice president could break a 50-50 tie.

To ensure an outright majority, Republicans will need to flip at least two Democrat seats this fall. And to ensure that a few rogue GOP senators – namely figures like Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – can’t single-handedly derail conservative legislation, Republicans should be aiming for a cushion of at least 52 or 53 seats.

By far the most likely state for a flip is West Virginia, where Democrat Joe Manchin has announced that he will not seek re-election. After the Mountain State went for Trump by nearly 40 points in 2020 and popular GOP Governor Jim Justice announced that he would be running for Senate, Republicans are heavily favored to pick up Manchin’s seat.

The next three states where Republicans appear to have the greatest chances of success are Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In all these states, voters are deeply unhappy with Joe Biden’s performance as president, and the incumbent Democrats running for re-election will be forced to defend their record of supporting this White House’s unpopular policies.

In 2021, for instance, Casey, Brown, and Tester all voted to pass Biden’s $1.9 trillion “America Rescue Plan” – the bill that touched off the inflationary crisis that the country is still embroiled in. Under the guise of COVID-19 relief, every Senate Democrat voted to pass this legislation, which sent hundreds of millions of dollars to fund various liberal pet projects throughout the country, as well as to illegal immigrants and violent felons in the form of stimulus checks.

A year later, these three vulnerable Democrats also voted to pass Biden’s egregiously misnamed “Inflation Reduction Act” – another trillion-dollar spending bill that exacerbated inflation by allocating hundreds of billions in subsidies in pursuit of Democrat fantasies of a “green revolution.”

Casey, Brown, and Tester also voted for the “For the People Act,” Democrats’ attempt to execute a federal takeover of the elections process and destroy election integrity. This bill would have outlawed Voter ID; mandated that states adopt universal mail-in voting and same-day voter registration; allowed states to accept ballots up to 10 days after Election Day; legalized widespread ballot harvesting; instituted public funding of elections; and transformed the Federal Elections Commission into a partisan body, among other egregious provisions.

Perhaps the most horrifying bill that all three senators voted for was the deceitfully named “Women’s Health Protection Act” in 2022. This bill would have repealed state laws that protect the unborn, prohibited any future state laws that would do the same, banned states from placing any limits on abortion, and forced doctors to perform abortions against their religious values.

Thanks to the Senate filibuster rule, that bill failed to pass the Senate. But Casey, Brown, and Tester all made abundantly clear that they stand with their party when it comes to supporting extreme late-term abortions and targeting pro-life Americans for their beliefs.

The three also voted to confirm Ketanji Brown-Jackson, Biden’s Supreme Court pick. Following Biden’s open admission that he only picked Jackson because she is a black woman and a disastrous confirmation hearing in which Jackson claimed she could not define the word “woman” because she is “not a biologist,” Casey, Brown, and Tester all voted to hand her a lifetime appointment to the nation’s highest court anyway.

Casey, Brown, and Tester have also remained glaringly silent on the deepening border crisis. While even some other Senate Democrats are now openly criticizing Biden for his failures on illegal immigration, these three vulnerable senators have said nothing despite the fact that every state is now facing the consequences of the crisis.

All of these positions are unlikely to sit well with voters. In Ohio and Montana in particular, which voted for Donald Trump by sizable margins in 2020, Brown and Tester should theoretically face an uphill battle to win over enough Republican voters to hang on to their seats. Joe Biden has just a 33 percent approval rating in Ohio and a dismal 25 percent approval rating in Montana. If the election is framed a referendum on the president and his policies, Brown and Tester will likely lose.

The race for Casey’s seat in Pennsylvania looks to be much more competitive. Biden officially won the state in 2020 by just over 80,000 votes (although there remain concerns about the integrity of the election process). Biden currently has just a 40 percent approval rating there, but Democrat John Fetterman did manage to flip the retiring Republican Pat Toomey’s seat in 2022.

The shape of these races will become clearer once Republicans select their nominees in the coming month. But what is already evident is that the GOP must prioritize winning in these three states to ensure a Republican Senate majority come January.

Alan Jamison is the pen name of a political writer with extensive experience writing for several notable politicians and news outlets.

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PaulE
PaulE
2 months ago

Actually, a GOP Senate majority also equally depends on whether Mitch McConnell pulls a repeat of his 2022 actions of withholding campaign contributions to ANY GOP candidates for the Senate that wouldn’t commit to him continuing to control the Senate. So, we face two fronts in any attempt to gain a Senate majority in 2024. One is obviously beating the Democrats running for those seats and their supporters in the MSM. The second challenge is from within our own ranks in the form of Mitch McConnell and his cadre of 14 or 15 fellow RINOs that routinely side with McConnell to aid the Democrats in getting their destructive, socialist legislation passed through the Senate and enacted into law.

Stan
Stan
2 months ago

Nothing matters if worthless corrupt deep state RINO McConnell remains in leadership.

A Voter
A Voter
2 months ago

You forgot to mention Mitch McConnell. That sway back RINO can derail conservative legislation quicker than Joe Biden can fall off a bicycle.

Stuart I. Anderson
Stuart I. Anderson
2 months ago

Come on Alan Jamison, for conservatives you missed the big story out of West Virginia. While Mitch McConnell’s favorite, centrist Jim Justice is running for the Senate, he is being opposed in the Republican primary by conservative stalwart Rep. ALEX MOONEY (Heritage-93%). West Virginia already has one squish Republican senator, now it’s time for that state to have a conservative Republican senator like Alex.

Morbious
Morbious
2 months ago

Brown has the proverbial nine lives. I dont think hes ever been defeated. He campaigns as a dear friend of the working class only to vote in lockstep with the globalists. For him to lose will require folks in NE ohio to come out of their trance. Tester is living proof of the ease with which people can be fooled. Apparently a crewcut is enough. We’ll see.

Thinking
Thinking
2 months ago

The only way we can win seats is to have strong candidates. The debacle in New York is testimony to that. The democrats are spending money like it is going out of style. 14 million dollar for a house seat. The American voter is still asleep. Plus we need to eliminate the RINOs now. The RNC is too divided. McConnell comes to mind. Graham is another. They sabotage the GOP in many ways. We are not United. The dems are. An investigative report comes out that ole Joe is frail and demented to the point he can’t be prosecuted and what say the dems. This was a partisan report ole Joe is as sharp as a tack. Even those thinking there is something to this still support him. And what do the reps do in the House fighting over the speaker. The dems had P and look what she did. In the times we live we cannot be divided because the dems don’t want to serve the country nor the people they are there for themselves. And together they have sold their soul to the devil to keep the power and become rich. Look at the border crisis that says it all. Not one democrat voted for impeaching Mayorkas but 3 reps said no. They don’t see the problem in America and the world. They all have blinders on. Or they have either been bought by Soros. We are going under people only our leaders haven’t seen it, don’t want to see it or have been bought.

Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
2 months ago

well lets hope people are not so stupid they continue voting to the sick democrat party

GM Auletta
GM Auletta
2 months ago

Getting rid of Sharrod Brown would call for a celebration; he has money from somewhere contributing to him..

Stephen
Stephen
2 months ago

So when 22 republican senators decide to send more billions of borrowed dollars to the kleptocrats in Ukraine while doing NOTHING to secure our southern border against the wishes of the vast majority of their republican voters, that’s not a good reason to think a “republican” senate is going to make a whit of difference.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 months ago

Since KB-J admitted she isn’t qualified to know what a woman is, does that mean she will recuse herself 50% of the time? But I’m perplexed: if she doesn’t know, how does she know what pronoun to refer to one as? Is she one? Is she a she or is she a ze or is ze a they she ze wannabe? Ouch. My head just exploded…

MBares
MBares
2 months ago

Does it make a difference when you have 22 rhinos in the senate? McConnell is on top of the list not to mention Mitt. It’s not going to change. DC needs to be flushed down the drain. These so called Republicans don’t stick together like the Democrats and they never will. They campaign as Republicans, but deep down inside they’re Democrats. I’m sick of getting lied to. It’s all about money and power . . . not about WE THE PEOPLE .

paul
paul
2 months ago

What is it about these Republican Senators whom always betray their voters by voting with Schumer. I personally will not vote for our one Senator whom is controlled by Mitch nor the next one if he is controlled by Mitch. We are sick and tired of being backstabbed.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 months ago

Can we oust all 3?? Ideally

Nancy
Nancy
2 months ago

The Biden Team is doing what they want – the border is open – not because the house or senate did anything but because the president wrote the mandate. At this point the house & senate are useless. We have a new leader in the house and nothing changed –

CharlieC
CharlieC
2 months ago

Republicans will have an impossible time winning Congress. Too many years of legacy media setting the agenda and convincing people that conservatives and republicans are bad people. Most folks don’t vote for policy, they vote for personality.

carl
carl
2 months ago

mike rogers will win in michigan

American Believer
American Believer
2 months ago

Could you send this article to the RNC please?

Gil
Gil
1 month ago

None of this matters if we don’t correct the corrupt election process. I have no doubt that the democratic party has plans in place to cheat again and that would include the seats they will need in congress as well as the President.

johnh
johnh
2 months ago

THE WOMEN’S PROTECTION ACT was mentioned in article. I do not believe the GOP realizes the magnitude of this issue & American voters. Democrats have been very astute at dragging comments out of Republicans on this issue. A few states are forcing women & Doctors to move to other states with new state laws.

BillBoy Baggins
BillBoy Baggins
2 months ago

Sen. JD Vance is proving himself to be a moving force. His endorsement of the Rep. candidate will go far.

William Hodge
William Hodge
2 months ago

So which seat will the GOP lose, the seat they will giveaway and the seat too close to call? The GOP has been consistently fine as being losers.

LibertarianJim
LibertarianJim
2 months ago

Do-nothing Casey will be reelected in PA, without question. In PA the Casey name is political gold. Besides, he’s none nothing in his Senate years to offend anyone (except vote lock-step with the Dems), so count him back for six more.

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