Trump’s Border Victory Is an Affordability Victory

This week, the Trump administration announced 15 straight months of zero releases at the U.S.-Mexico border, continuing the dramatic turnaround from the years of chaos and unchecked mass illegal immigration under the Biden administration. But that success is not just a victory for national security and the rule of law – it is an affordability victory for the American people as well.

For years, the economic consequences of illegal immigration were treated as secondary to the humanitarian and national security crises unfolding at the border. But when millions of additional people enter the country in a matter of years, they also compete with Americans for housing, jobs, schools, medical care, and public services. Trump’s border enforcement and deportation efforts are easing that pressure.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in America’s housing market.

The full scale of the Biden border crisis may never be known. Border encounter totals include repeat crossers and migrants who were ultimately removed, while those who entered without ever being detected are, by definition, impossible to count.

Customs and Border Protection recorded more than 11 million nationwide encounters beginning in fiscal year 2021, along with approximately 2.2 million known “gotaways” who escaped apprehension, according to official data.

Even the more conservative estimates describe an extraordinary population shock. A recent Dallas Fed paper cited a Congressional Budget Office estimate that net illegal immigration added roughly seven million people to the U.S. population from 2021 through 2024 – nearly twice the level of legal immigration during the same period.

A separate Pew estimate found that the illegal alien population reached a record 14 million in 2023, up 3.5 million in just two years. Illegal aliens accounted for 27 percent of all immigrants and 4.1 percent of the total U.S. population. But even that estimate may be too conservative. The alarming truth is that Americans cannot be sure about just how many tens of millions of people are in the country illegally.

Whatever the exact number, every new arrival needed somewhere to live. They entered a country already facing a severe housing shortage and competed directly with American citizens and lawful immigrants for apartments, starter homes, and subsidized housing.

The Fed study which examined the illegal immigration boom from March 2021 to March 2024 found that this influx raised both home prices and rents without producing any significant increase in housing supply. In other words, it created what the researchers called a “housing demand shock.”

For the average metropolitan area, the study estimated that illegal alien worker inflows increased home prices by 6.6 percent and rents by 4.3 percent. That means the immigration surge accounted for approximately 30 percent of all home-price growth and 20 percent of rent growth during the period.

The effect was felt throughout the housing market. An increase in illegal alien workers equal to one percent of a local area’s initial employment raised home prices by an estimated 2.2 percent and rents by 1.4 percent. Rental pressure was slightly greater in the multifamily market, where recent migrants are more likely to live.

President Trump has reversed that dynamic. His administration declared a national emergency at the southern border, ended catch-and-release, restored immigration enforcement, and virtually eliminated illegal border crossings. The Dallas Fed estimates that net illegal immigration turned negative in February 2025 and remained negative throughout the rest of the year.

The broader migration numbers reflect that turnaround. The Census Bureau found that net international migration – which includes both legal and illegal migration – fell from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, a 53.8 percent decline. If current trends hold, the bureau projects that figure will fall to about 321,000 in 2026.

As the population shock has subsided, renters are finally getting some relief. According to the White House, national rents have fallen 4.4 percent from their Biden-era peak, with even larger declines in several metropolitan areas that absorbed significant numbers of migrants. Rents were down 21.5 percent in Austin, 13.8 percent in Phoenix, 13.5 percent in San Antonio, and 9.5 percent in Dallas.

Of course, immigration is not the only factor affecting housing costs. Interest rates, construction expenses, zoning restrictions, and the recent expansion of multifamily housing supply all matter. Border enforcement alone cannot solve every defect in America’s housing market.

But it is equally dishonest to pretend that rapidly adding millions of people had no effect on demand – or that abruptly reducing that flow cannot help relieve the pressure. Even a historic building boom would struggle to keep pace with population growth on the scale experienced during the Biden years.

The Trump administration has also moved to ensure that scarce taxpayer-supported housing resources go to people who are legally eligible for them. The Department of Housing and Urban Development tightened FHA rules by eliminating the “non-permanent residents” category for government-insured mortgages.

HUD also ordered housing authorities to verify the citizenship or eligible immigration status of tenants receiving federal assistance. A subsequent HUD audit identified nearly 6,000 ineligible non-American tenants and almost 200,000 tenants requiring further eligibility verification.

The department has since proposed closing the “mixed-status household” loophole by requiring every resident of federally funded housing to demonstrate citizenship or eligible status.

“Under President Trump’s leadership, the days of illegal aliens, ineligibles, and fraudsters gaming the system and riding the coattails of American taxpayers are over,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said while announcing the proposed rule.

The data clearly shows the positive effects of Trump’s immigration crackdown. A government that allows millions of people to enter unlawfully and remain in the country is not merely weakening the border, but forcing working families to pay more for homes, rent, and public services.

Trump’s immigration agenda is therefore more than an enforcement program. It is a central part of his affordability agenda – and another step toward putting the American Dream back within reach of citizens and those who come here lawfully.