Michigan Meltdown: Democrat Establishment Suffers Crushing Blow in Primary Contests

The Democrat establishment isn’t dead, but after Tuesday night it may be on life support. Insurgent progressive candidates appear on track to win a trio of primary races in Michigan, adding to a growing pile of losses for party leadership that could come back to haunt them in November.

The marquee race on August 4 was the Michigan Democrat Senate primary, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed was taking on establishment favorite Haley Stevens. Despite nearly $60 million in outside support for Stevens, El-Sayed held a narrow lead as of Wednesday morning and appeared in strong position to win the race as this story went to print.

El-Sayed could well be called “the Mamdani of Michigan.” The day before Election Day, he was spotted at a pool party with far-left streamer Hasan Piker and progressive House candidates Melat Kiros and Chris Rabb, both members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). El-Sayed held several campaign events with Piker, who has said that America “deserved 9/11” and called on his followers to kill Republican members of Congress and murder their landlords “in the streets.”

El-Sayed himself has his own history of sordid and disturbing comments, including stressing the importance of having empathy for terrorists and expressing sadness at the death of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

If the current results hold, an El-Sayed primary victory could be a devastating blow for Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Senate. As things stand today, Democrats are leading in the latest RealClearPolitics average in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Maine, and Alaska, with a tied race in Iowa. They need to flip at least four of those Republican-held seats to retake the majority.

That appeared to be an impossible task just a few months ago, but the polling says it is now within reach – if they can hang on to Michigan. With El-Sayed at the top of the ticket, however, Republican Mike Rogers will likely be favored to flip the state and dash Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority.

The Democrat establishment was dealt another blow in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, where Will Lawrence, a Bernie Sanders-backed progressive, also defeated the establishment favorite to take on GOP Rep. Tom Barrett. Trump won the district in 2024, but Democrats hoped that the right candidate could flip it this year. Lawrence’s victory seriously undermines that prospect.

Lawrence co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a radical left-wing activist group that pushed the Green New Deal and has called for abolishing ICE and police. Lawrence also has a history of comments that could hurt him with even his own voters, including one podcast appearance in which he criticized black liberals as a “pillar” of the “capitalist, imperialist” American establishment whose backing for Democratic leadership “defangs the white left.”

Meanwhile, in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District, a safe blue seat encompassing much of Detroit, incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar is on the ropes against challenger Donovan McKinney. Thanedar is himself a progressive, but McKinney is challenging him on the grounds that the seat in this majority-black district should be held by a black person. While that result is not an ideological victory for the progressive left, it is nonetheless a political triumph and further evidence that the establishment can no longer protect its members from serious primary threats.

What these results prove collectively is that the rise of far-left progressives – figures who make even “Squad” members like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez look somewhat moderate by comparison – is no longer a phenomenon confined to big blue cities or coastal areas. Establishment picks are in danger everywhere, and the Democrat civil war has exploded into new fronts all over the country.

If someone like El-Sayed can win a statewide primary in Michigan against a well-known candidate like Stevens who has tens of millions of dollars in financial backing, there really is no telling where the establishment’s freefall ends. We are in uncharted territory.

What’s worse for Democrats is that it might not be over yet in the Upper Midwest. There are still a few states left to go with late primaries, including Wisconsin on August 11. In the gubernatorial primary there, progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong has a commanding lead over the field. Hong has notably faced scrutiny over past social media posts in which she called to end Thanksgiving, criticized Valentine’s Day, Halloween, and Christmas, and described an experience at a Culver’s that made her uncomfortable because of “many old white people who didn't think we spoke English.”

Republicans cannot afford to take any of these races for granted. They still have to campaign aggressively, define their opponents, and earn every vote. But Democrats have gone badly over their skis, allowing the most radical elements of their coalition to dominate the nomination process and elevate candidates who are not merely wrong on policy, but often personally repellent and morally bankrupt.

For years, party leaders treated the far left as a useful faction to be indulged, protected, and welcomed inside the “big tent.” Now those same forces are taking over the party from within. The chickens are coming home to roost – and that big tent may soon become much smaller.