Israel’s Chaotic Election and What It Means for America

While all attention was focused on the lead-up to the U.S. midterm elections, Israel also held a major election on October 27 with potentially significant ramifications for the ongoing conflict in Iran and the broader stability of the Middle East region. The result has been chaos as it remains unclear who will lead the country. Here’s what that means for the United States.

In that election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament. The main opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, won 48. Two Arab-led groups took the other 19. Netanyahu came out ahead, but his bloc was eight seats short of a majority.

For American observers, it may seem odd that Israel can finish counting votes and still have to figure out who will run the country. But in Israel’s parliamentary democracy, voters choose from a party list, and the results determine how many seats each party gets. Israel’s president, in this case Isaac Herzog, then asks a lawmaker to try to form a government that can win parliament’s approval.

The usual route is to get parties with at least 61 seats between them to agree to govern together. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister.

Netanyahu, widely known as Bibi, leads the conservative Likud party and counts far-right and Orthodox parties among his allies. Eisenkot, a former commander of Israel’s military, leads the centrist Yashar party. His opposition bloc stretches from left to right. Its members want to replace Netanyahu, but they disagree on whose votes they’re willing to rely on to do it.

Trump backed Netanyahu before the election and took credit for his better-than-expected showing. “I heard my endorsement made a big difference for Bibi,” he told Axios the day after the vote. Netanyahu’s bloc still fell short, and this week Eisenkot pulled ahead in the contest to get the first chance to form a government.

Herzog wrapped up consultations Thursday and said he would announce his choice Sunday. Parties holding 67 seats recommended Eisenkot, including both Arab-led groups, the Joint List and Ra’am. Parties holding 46 seats recommended Netanyahu. The seven lawmakers from United Torah Judaism, part of Netanyahu’s election bloc, withheld their recommendation.

Eisenkot’s allies have already agreed to start drafting a governing program. But recommending someone to lead the talks is easier than agreeing to keep him in power.

Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List says that his group is willing to back a government that replaces Netanyahu from outside the cabinet. Avigdor Liberman, whose party holds seven of the opposition’s 48 seats, has ruled out relying on Arab parties.

Eisenkot also campaigned on drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the Israeli military (currently they are exempt from mandatory military service), rejecting cooperation with Islamists, and refusing to govern with Netanyahu. But the closer he gets to forming a government, the harder it will be to keep all three promises.

Herzog has urged party leaders to “stop climbing trees and face the reality” of the results. A pre-election Maariv poll found that 60 percent favored a unity government and 23 percent wanted another election. Unity would still mean agreeing on who leads and what the government does.

Former U.S. Middle East envoy Dennis Ross sees three issues as central to a deal, including military service for all Israelis, an age limit for public office, and an inquiry into the October 7 attack.

For the United States, the most urgent question is who will be making Israel’s case for another round of strikes on Iran. Netanyahu reportedly pressed Trump to renew strikes in a call last weekend. Trump is weighing that decision after a midterm election in which about six in ten U.S. voters told the Associated Press that taking military action against Iran had been the wrong decision.

If Eisenkot takes over, Trump would be dealing with a former general who backed the earlier U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. But to get there, Eisenkot may need votes from the Joint List, an alliance of Arab-led parties that has offered to help oust Netanyahu while staying outside the cabinet. Its leader, Ahmad Tibi, has warned that Netanyahu could pursue another round of fighting while still in office. The two sides agree on replacing Netanyahu. The harder question is whether the Joint List would keep backing Eisenkot if he decided to strike Iran again.

A unity government could keep Netanyahu at the table, especially if the premiership rotates, while giving his rivals a say in whether and when Israel strikes again. A fresh election would leave Netanyahu in place as caretaker for longer. And even if Herzog gives Eisenkot the first shot on Sunday, assembling a government could take weeks. Trump says he’ll decide soon whether to resume major combat operations. He may make that decision while Netanyahu is still the man on the other end of the phone.