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A Republican Senate, Really?

Posted on Thursday, September 28, 2023
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by Barry Casselman
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78 Comments
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AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

the US Senate building; Republican vs Democrat election

From the onset of this U.S. Senate election cycle, it was clear that Republicans held a significant numerical advantage, with 23 incumbent Democrats on the ballot and only 11 Republicans. This advantage is magnified by the nature of the races in question, and the general assessment that 8 or 9 incumbent Democrat seats are potentially vulnerable, and only one GOP seat is likely competitive.

But the 2022 U.S. Senate elections remind all of us that theoretical advantages are not always realized when voters actually go to the polls.

This cycle also includes a presidential election that is already one of the most controversial in memory, and which might remain so until Election Day.

If former President Donald Trump is nominated next year, the volatility surrounding his candidacy might have an even greater impact than usual, especially in light of his involvement in 2022 Senate campaigns.

Until very recently, the Republican Senate Campaign Committee (RSCC) had not been successful in recruiting strong challengers for several potentially competitive seats held by Democrats. GOP fundraising also trailed that of their opponents.

It was beginning to appear that 2024 would be a year when GOP advantages on paper might again, as in 2022, not be realized — and that Democrats might even keep control of the Senate.

But the NRSC efforts under its chairman, Montana Senator Steve Daines, have recently recruited impressive candidates in Pennsylvania (David McCormick), Nevada (Sam Burns), Montana (Tim Sheehey), and Michigan (Mike Rogers). GOP Governor Jim Justice is already a heavy favorite to pick up a Democratic seat in West Virginia. More than one Republican running in the Ohio senate primary would likely make a strong challenge to the Democrat incumbent in that state. (Conservative prospects in battleground senate races in Wisconsin and Arizona remain unsettled.)

Several recent events have also appeared to boost Republican ambitions to retake control of the Senate, including the mayor of Dallas, a Democrat, becoming a Republican, the most prominent of several recent party switches to the GOP; the retirements of incumbent Democrats in Delaware and Maryland; the retirement of Mitt Romney (a Republican who often broke with his own party) who will almost certainly replaced by someone more reliably conservative; and the indictment for bribery of Democrat Robert Menendez of New Jersey. The latter has caused several Democrat senators to call for Menendez to resign, which he refuses to do — thus providing an ongoing embarrassment for the liberal party until the case is resolved in court.

Several recent polls show Mr. Trump either ahead or tied with Mr. Biden in a 2024 match-up, as the incumbent president’s popularity reaches new lows.

Some 2024 third parties are now organizing, and polls indicate that, if on the ballot, they would take more votes from Democrats than Republicans in most cases, particularly if there are No Labels and Green Party candidates in states which have competitive races.

There are, however, difficulties which remain for GOP hopes in 2024. A failed effort in Texas to impeach its Republican attorney general has divided the state party and might put a cloud over the re-election of GOP Senator Ted Cruz, who faces a serious challenge. Although he continues to be a clear frontrunner, Donald Trump faces four criminal trials following his indictments — trials which likely will take place during the presidential campaign. No GOP challenger to Mr. Trump has so far taken off following the first debate, but a hotly contested Republican primary cycle could still emerge and have unpredictable effects on voter turnout patterns in individual states with Senate races.

Republican Party fundraising also continues to trail the more successful efforts of their opponents.

The momentum that was moving against the GOP in the 2024 Senate races has now mainly reversed, and is seemingly going in their favor. But the components of the whole effort to retake control, and particularly to do so with a few seats to spare, are many and tentative — and could reverse again more than once between now and Election Day.

Events to watch for include GOP recruitment in Wisconsin and Arizona, any further unexpected retirements of incumbents, a surge or lack of a surge in Republican fundraising, and the ability of Republican challengers to come up with defining issues that bring out voters to the polls (as the Democrats did with the abortion issue in 2022). The presidential race will have impact, too, but U.S. Senate races are usually decided mostly by issues in their states.

Republicans retaking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, albeit by less a margin than expected, has made a very big difference in the political environment in Washington, D.C. Retaking the U.S. Senate would more than amplify this — it would dramatically reverse the radical course now being pursued by Democrats.

 

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Rik
Rik
9 months ago

As a Republican I am NOT IMPRESSED with our Party’s current bunch of Senators! Why? Because they’re NOT FIGHTERS, they are ALL TALK and NO ACTION! And I certainly wasn’t impressed with those Republican Presidential wannabes last night! Trump had a very successful 1st term and DESERVES to SERVE AGAIN! They’re all hoping that Trump drops out but they are only kidding themselves because he’s proven that he’s a fighter! I especially disliked Christie who if became our candidate that I would NOT VOTE for him and would write in Trump’s name instead. Senate Republicans are ALL LOSERS and I fear for our country!

PaulE
PaulE
9 months ago

One aspect not mentioned in the above article is the fact that even if the Senate were to swing back to a Republican majority, there is still the matter of Mitch McConnell and his merry band of 17 or 18 RINOs that consistently support Democrat legislation. Thus, crippling any effort to restrain runaway Democrat spending and any attempt to stifle the socialist agenda. Just some of the recent examples being the Chips Act, the Infrastructure Bill and the intentionally misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. All of which did little to nothing pertaining to their names but did create new laws, taxes, fees and regulations promoting the climate change hoax and drive both inflation and the national deficit to new record highs. All while lowering the standard of living for the average American.

It’s NOT about how many people in the Senate have an (R) after their name, but rather how they vote if we somehow end up with a majority in the Senate again. We’ve all seen how Mitch McConnell and his merry band of sell-outs can undermine the best efforts of the Republicans to either hold the line against bad Democrat bills or actually block good Republican legislation to correct some of the damage inflicted on the country by past Democrat legislation. The first order to business has to be removing this obstacle from within the Senate and putting people in place that will actually serve the people that sent them to the Senate. Otherwise, it means little if we technically have a Republican majority in the Senate. Yes I know, that is a heavy lift, but we are well past easy and painless solutions at this point. What we need are people on our side in Congress actually willing to fight for the people they supposedly represent, but that is a matter for discussion on another day.

If the Democrats retake the House in 2024, which is possible given what the New York State courts are doing with the voting district maps to flip back 5 House seats to the Democrats, and they retain the Senate and the White via the same game plan they’ve already run successfully, then what we’ll see coming out of Congress post-election will make the last 2 years of Democrat rule look like a cake walk in terms of the socialist agenda just being rammed through at lightning speed.

Likeitis
Likeitis
9 months ago

You have missed the point of this particular election – it is not”business as usual”(or election as usual in this case) – this election will decide the state of the union = either a freedom liberty & justice Constitution stands or a communist coup completed. There is no in between and treating it as such is a great disservice to all who are fighting for the first one; our American Republic to stand. We should all be voting as one to accomplish it; UNITED WE STAND, or divided we fall.

Donald K Dalton
Donald K Dalton
9 months ago

Two words. TERM LIMITS! Two terms and out.

Sal
Sal
9 months ago

And Trump’s winning will do away with all RINOs of both Houses, including McConnell who’d be out to pasture sooner than later. I never trusted McConnell, period

A Voter
A Voter
9 months ago

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups. This applies to both Republicans and Democrats. The only difference between the two is that Democrats shoot everyone in the foot with their stupidity. Republicans shoot only themselves in the foot believing they are “doing the right thing”. The end result is the same because when Republicans shoot themselves Democrats win by default. Even when Republicans win they still act like they lost and NOTHING CHANGES!!!!!!

Barbara Sandberg
Barbara Sandberg
9 months ago

I think we are underestimating the power of the army of young, activist socialist voters the public schools have pumped out the past several years. We have to make sure every conservative we know gets off their duffs to vote and try to talk to our kids, grandkids, young neighbors and store clerks to help them see what we and our parents worked for and why. It is very difficult for me to give to the RNC when they continue to support Murkowski, Romney and Collins.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
9 months ago

…and when they obtain a majority, then what? More “hand sitting”, “…my esteemed colleagues”, and inactivity. Let’s see how these inquiries go: you have Chinese money wired to Joe Biden’s Delaware address. Do they need “for bribe” written in the memo section as well?

J. FARLEY
J. FARLEY
9 months ago

My first thought when I read the article was what good will it do, if the new ones coming in, along with the current ones will be the worst Republican controlled Senate we have ever had, why because this bunch is the most spineless bunch, with RINO’s, and people who speak out of both sides of their mouths and the amazing thing is they can do it at the same time. In reality there are about 75 leftists and 25 simi-conservative.
McConnell and the rest of the Republicans need to get some backbone and weary more about serving the American citizens than, they do about get re-elected, if you do a good job serving the citizens you will get re-elected. But of course, you won’t stuff as much money in your pockets.
God Bless America, Long live Freedom!

Thinking
Thinking
9 months ago

Until Americans wake up to the fact that there is a concerted effort to bring America down nothing will change.
Here they are talking about personalities again. Not about the DNC platform for America against the RNC platform. Stop talking personalities. That is all we hear. Compare the governing of the dems programs against the reps.
If America cannot see where the dems are taking America we are lost forever. We will be leaving this country and the migrants will take over.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
9 months ago

How, look at how they run the House?
No plans, visions etc
Nothing
Damn Uniparty

LiamL
LiamL
9 months ago

A Republican Senate only matters if we’re talking NON Rino America first candidates. More importantly, if we can’t beat the cheat nothing matters, big bully hater govt wins, we the people lose.

FJB
FJB
9 months ago

How are Republicans supposed to win if the dimocrats cheat again? This piece is an example of Republicans debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, while the dimocrats are salivating to use their massive cheating machine again.

Steven
Steven
9 months ago

The Republicans talk a good game but their actions never seem to follow. The Republican Party needs to evolve into a more conservative, common sense Party that can be relied on to fight for the good of the country. The Democrats are good at creating emotional issues such as abortion rights as they cannot present a common sense agenda to the American people. The Republicans need to concentrate on the issues that are affecting the quality of life for the American people such as energy independence, reopening the pipeline, oil exploration to drive down the cost of energy, removing critical race theory and gender indoctrination from our public school systems and get back to teaching a classic education. They need to emphasize complete border security, use our military to take out the cartels that are poisoning our country with drugs, criminals and terrorists. We are seeing terrorists on our Terrorist Watch swarming into the country due to Biden’s open door policies. The Republicans need to expose the radical lies of the Climate Change extremists and end the war on the oil companies. The country should not be subsidizing electric cars or busses. By the way, Biden’s electric bus company just filed for bankruptcy but not before his Democrat friends such as George Soros sold their stock and made tons of money. This is make it or break it for the Republican Party. They can’t raise funds because they don’t deliver the promises they make.

Fred Noel
Fred Noel
9 months ago

The Senate would of had a Republican majority. However the Democrats stole at least five (probably more) Senate seats in the 2020 and 2022 election cycles. They were able to accomplish his through ballot and voter fraud. Mainly with mail-in balloting harvesting and stuffing unsecured ballot drop boxes. That along with many other balloting “irregularities” they were successful. They will continue until mail-in balloting is stopped.

GI RETIRED
GI RETIRED
9 months ago

I am also not impressed with many of these Republicans. The Dummies : Wise up. there are no I’s in a TEAM

jocko
jocko
9 months ago

ALL libs = CANCER

jocko
jocko
9 months ago

DEPORT ALL liberals, illegals AND THE ONCE HONORABLES, fbi, cia, doj AND OF MOST RECENT, THE secret service TO THE NEW AUSCHWITZ FOR ROAS……. TO MAGA

Sal
Sal
9 months ago

If Trump can be less of a loud mouth and braggart he is now, winning in 2024 will be a landslide against anyone, Rep or Dem.

Malinois
Malinois
9 months ago

Vote straight ticket Republican. Keep your sick woke socialist reps out of government. Ppl like you are part of the destruction of this country.

AntiRinoism
AntiRinoism
9 months ago

I’m very disgusted with establishment Mitt/Bush/McCain//McConnell,& their donors that can be found on the Epstein client list! It’s a fact! Why else would they be voting for sending your great great grandchildren’s money to #1 money laundering, #1 baby surrogacy (black market babies,sextrafficking & organ harvesting) think about it UK is not a member of NATO zelensky is a Tyrant shutting down churches shutting down their elections, and killing Russian speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine! Say what you want about Russia you have to acknowledge they did help US end WW2 kick some Nazi ass!

BACKWOODS
BACKWOODS
9 months ago

America is in decline and her people are more worried about their next vacation, upcoming football or baseball game ,and so on. I don’t think they will have a clue until it knocks them on their A$$. It is a shame!

Harry
Harry
9 months ago

The present representation and the votes they have cast so far, have people PO’D.Constantly casting votes by seasoned Senators to spend trillions are not doing anybody any good. People said they are not contributing to anybody financed by McConnell! The Senators who are on any of the list put out for their votes to help the left, better watch out !

Belinda
Belinda
9 months ago

I’ve tried 8 times to post this entire comment: If all conservatives will research candidates AND VOTE, we could win even as the left cheats (they will). I am convinced that in 2016, so many got out

Steve
Steve
9 months ago

It doesn’t matter who is so called vulnerable in the Senate this coming election cycle because who ever is re-elected or is a new Senator the Republican Party like the democrat party is corrupt and has been broken for several years. I do not know what it will take or if it can be done but our entire U.S. Government has to be reformed and 2/3rd’s of all US Government agencies closed for good. Power needs to be returned to each individual American State. Plus a third political party must be created…

Ruben Cordova
Ruben Cordova
9 months ago

There is no Republican and Democratic parties it’s just the Uniparty and Patriots. Oath Keepers or Socialist

AntiRinoism
AntiRinoism
9 months ago

Good Grief I’ve repeatedly seen representatives $ Senator to vote with Democrats in order to pass spending bill’s which should tell people that lobbyists are

Willis
Willis
9 months ago

We just experienced two and a half years in a Weimar Republic and are now in the final days of the Roman Empire.

David
David
9 months ago

With 3 of the Senate seats the Democrats have to defend being in states that voted for Trump, 2 of which by double digits, in 2020 there is little chance of them holding the Senate. WV will go red. That makes it 50/50. Unless they win in Texas or Montana along with the others they have to defend, they lose the Senate.

JOHN
JOHN
9 months ago

It is very obvious that the end game of the evil Democratics and the evil Rhinos is the destruction of America as it was founded by the most intelligent and honerable MEN in history and became the strongest and most free country in human exsistance. The total disregard for our sacred Constitution by the dishonorable in the House and Senate is the root of the problem with our government. Did they place their hand on the Bible and swear the oath to up hold it with the fingers crossed on the other hand behind their spinless back?
Folks there is only one way this will be solved. Call me radical but it will have to be ended with a civil war. If taken to the streets the Dems will loose. There are around 880 million guns owned by a very high percentage of conservitive citizens and the Dems have a very small % of them.
Just a thought: How many Counties in the world are at peace right now? Are they at peace because the people are civilized or are their governments ?

Grandpaw5000
Grandpaw5000
9 months ago

This race has become a battle of good vs. evil. If Conservatives don’t take control, America as we know her is finished. Bidenomics will destroy America. It is up to “We the People” to take control of our country back from those who seek to annihilate her!

Allan E Brem
Allan E Brem
9 months ago

I will believe the quid pro quo will end when I see it ended. Otherwise, the games continue.

Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
9 months ago

lets hope so. the democrats have screwed up everything.

phoenix
phoenix
9 months ago

Should already be so. Because the INDEPENDENTS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO CAUCUS WITH ANYONE but themselves since they are a different party
Thereby lowering the dem count to 48.
But that would be honest, so we can’t have that in DC. Oh no there are only two parties folks. ONLY two so they can keep power, keep the ball rolling in a direction they want, just vary the speed.

jocko
jocko
9 months ago

MOST REPUBS ARE A BUNCH OF PIMPS AND ARE ACTUALLY, libs

johnh
johnh
9 months ago

I think Trump really stepped over into Twilight Zone this week when he suggested the Top General in the USA should face execution. It is scary to me that Trump holds so many grudges against other people & that he is willing to thrown anyone under the bus when temper flares.

Secret Service agents rush Donald Trump off the stage.(AP: Evan Vucci)
President Joe Biden greets President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, California.(Official White House Photo by Carlos Fyfe)
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone with Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to discuss his approval of a FEMA disaster declaration in response to the impacts of Hurricane Beryl, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

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