MIDTERM ROUNDUP: Where Key Races Stand Six Days Out

The country is now less than a week away from the midterm elections, with massive stakes for both parties. Polls strongly suggest that Democrats will flip the House – although as AMAC Newsline recently reported, there is serious reason to doubt polling accuracy heading into Election Day. The Senate appears much more up for grabs, with Democrats clinging to small leads in most swing-state polling.

Here’s where the key races stand and what to watch for in the final week.

Senate

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, meaning that Democrats need to net at least four seats to reclaim the majority. (In the event of a 50-50 tie, Vice President JD Vance would provide the tie-breaking vote for Republicans.)

Earlier this year, the Senate appeared out of reach for Democrats, but the polling suggests that is no longer the case, with races in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio suddenly becoming competitive. At the same time, Democrats have been forced on defense in Minnesota and Michigan, two states where they have performed well in federal races in recent cycles.

Polling suggests that Republicans are set to suffer a major blow in North Carolina, where popular former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican candidate Michael Whatley by double digits in the RealClearPolitics average. That seat, currently held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, would be one flip for Democrats.

Assuming Whatley doesn’t pull off what would be one of the more shocking political upsets in recent memory, Democrats need to flip at least three more states from the above list of nine.

Democrats’ most likely pickup opportunities appear to be in Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. While Talarico has held an edge over Paxton in Texas for virtually the entire race, early vote totals strongly indicate that Paxton is in a strong position heading into Election Day.

On the Republican side, all eyes will be on Michigan and Minnesota. In Michigan, far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed is under fire for his ties to radical Islamic groups and far-left streamer Hasan Piker. Minnesota has been perhaps the biggest surprise of election season, with voter backlash to major public fraud scandals suddenly making the race competitive.

If Republicans can flip one or both of those states, the path to a Democrat majority becomes much narrower, perhaps prohibitively so.

Republicans are still well-positioned to retain control of the Senate, but it seems likely that their majority will be smaller.

House

While the betting markets make Democrats the overwhelming favorite to retake the House – more than 90 percent odds on Kalshi – how big their majority will be remains an open question. House Republican leaders insist that there is still a path to retaining the gavel, but it would require an overwhelming majority of toss-up races to tilt toward the GOP on Election Day.

Still, mid-decade redistricting and uneven polling in U.S. House races mean that there are a lot of unknowns six days out. Here’s how Cook Political Report sees the map.

Either party needs at least 218 seats to form a majority. Currently, the seats rated as solid, likely, or lean Democrat total 220, so Republicans will need to peel off at least a few of those – while winning almost all of the toss-up and lean Republican seats – to retain control.

Even if Democrats win back power, however, the size of their majority will matter. As Republicans learned this Congress, a majority of just a few seats means even a small faction can derail legislation. If Democrats have a large majority, however, their speaker – almost certainly Hakeem Jeffries – will have much more leeway to pursue whatever priorities he wants.

Once again, it appears that the country is heading for a photo finish on Election Day. AMAC Newsline will be here the rest of the way to keep you informed on all the latest developments and break down the results once they are finalized.