Bolsonaro Upset Sets Up High-Stakes Brazil Runoff

This past Sunday, Brazilians went to the polls for the first round of voting in what could be their most consequential presidential election since World War II.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a senator, received 47.03 percent of the vote. His opponent, President Inácio Lula da Silva, secured 45.16 percent. The result sent the race to an October 25 runoff to decide the winner. That result amounted to a mild but unmistakable upset and another encouraging sign for conservative parties that have been gaining ground throughout Latin America.

Heading into Election Day, the major surveys generally showed Lula leading the first round. Even in late September, polling suggested Lula was widening his advantage, while surveys immediately before the vote continued to put him narrowly ahead. Instead, Bolsonaro finished first, two points ahead of the incumbent.

Bolsonaro now enters the runoff with momentum, but his supporters should not celebrate too early. The race remains highly competitive, and analysts have noted that Bolsonaro may have already consolidated much of the anti-Lula vote, potentially leaving him less room to expand his coalition in the second round.

Still, it is clear that Brazilians who were widely expected to give Lula the advantage instead delivered a rejection of the left-wing incumbent and his liberal policies.

Bolsonaro has spent the campaign presenting himself as a younger alternative to the 80-year-old Lula. Earlier this year, he told the Financial Times that “Brazil urgently needs change” and called for a “younger, more modern, and more energetic government.”

Conservatives Score Big in Congress

The presidential contest was not the only good news for Brazil’s conservatives.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (which represents the conservative side of the political aisle in Brazil) emerged as the biggest winner in the congressional elections, increasing its Senate representation from 15 seats to 28 and becoming the largest party in the chamber. The party is also projected to win 121 seats in the lower house, up from 98. Along with allied conservative and center-right parties, Bolsonaro’s camp could hold close to 250 seats in the lower house.

Those gains matter regardless of what happens on October 25. If Bolsonaro wins, he would enter office with a far stronger legislative position from which to advance his agenda. If Lula survives, he would face a more powerful opposition capable of frustrating his priorities and making a fourth Lula presidency considerably more difficult.

The market reaction offered another indication of just how significant Bolsonaro’s showing was. Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa stock index jumped more than eight percent on Monday, while the Brazilian currency strengthened more than four percent against the dollar as investors increased their expectations of a more market-friendly government.

Why Lula Is Vulnerable

Lula’s difficulties cannot be explained simply by Brazil’s headline economic statistics.

Unemployment has improved under his government, but voters entered the election deeply concerned about the cost of living, corruption, and crime. Public debt has climbed above 82 percent of GDP, while persistent inflation and high borrowing costs have put pressure on Brazilian households.

“Lula’s unchecked spending triggered soaring costs,” said Professor Jurgen Förster, who added that raising the minimum wage and expanding social programs was a mistake. “He wrongly did it across the board.”

To slow inflation, the central bank raised interest rates twice, nearly making previous wage and payment increases useless as the cost of credit, mortgages, car loans, and consumer financing skyrocketed.

That helps explain the contradiction at the heart of Lula’s political troubles. His government can point to favorable statistics in some areas, yet many Brazilians still feel squeezed by the price of everyday necessities and are increasingly concerned about government spending.

Corruption has also remained a vulnerability. Lula’s son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, came under scrutiny this year in investigations involving alleged influence peddling and improper payments connected to a pension fraud investigation. A Brazilian Supreme Court justice authorized a federal police investigation into the president’s son in July.

None of those problems guaranteed a Bolsonaro victory. But taken together, they gave the challenger fertile ground to argue that Brazil needs a change in direction – and specifically, a return to the direction seen under Bolsonaro’s father.

Part of a Larger Political Shift

Brazil’s results also fit into a broader political trend toward conservatives in Latin and South America.

In December 2025, conservative José Antonio Kast won Chile’s presidency with 58 percent of the runoff vote, producing what Reuters called the country’s sharpest rightward shift since the end of military rule in 1990. Ecuador also reelected center-right President Daniel Noboa in 2025 by more than one million votes.

This year, conservative Keiko Fujimori won Peru’s presidency, while Abelardo De La Espriella narrowly prevailed in Colombia. De La Espriella’s victory in particular was viewed as another major setback for the region’s left.

The trend has coincided with President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and a more assertive U.S. approach toward the Western Hemisphere. But economic frustration, crime and the broader failure of left-wing policies have also been powerful forces driving the shift.

A Bolsonaro victory later this month would put another major Latin American power in conservative hands and give Trump a potentially important ideological ally in South America.

The China Question

One less-discussed issue could also have consequences extending far beyond Brazil.

China has become Brazil’s largest trading partner and now absorbs more than 30 percent of Brazilian exports. The United States takes about 12 percent. China’s share has risen dramatically from only about three percent in the early 1990s.

That economic relationship has given Beijing enormous importance in Brazil. Lula has encouraged closer ties with China and has made Brazil an increasingly prominent partner in Beijing’s effort to expand its economic and diplomatic influence throughout the developing world.

The relationship has also taken on an openly geopolitical dimension. During a June meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China and Brazil should work together to “jointly fend off external challenges.”

Bolsonaro has taken a sharply different tone. He has criticized Lula for allowing Brazil to become too dependent on China and has presented himself as far more naturally aligned with the United States and Trump. Earlier this year, he accused Lula of opening Brazil to Beijing “as if it were a Chinese colony.”

A Latin American commentator I spoke with called Lula “a Trojan horse for the Chinese Communist Party.” A Chinese dissident also said Beijing often finds common ground with Brazil, viewing Lula and his coalition as trusted “comrades” in a shared vision. One former Politburo adviser I spoke with told me openly that the CCP views Lula’s government “as a tool for global revolution.”

China could continue to be an underrated factor in understanding what is ultimately at stake and determining the final outcome of the race.

With the United States and China competing for influence throughout South America, the next president will help determine whether the region’s largest economy continues moving closer to China or begins shifting back toward the United States.

For now, Bolsonaro has momentum, a stronger-than-expected first-round showing and an increasingly powerful conservative bloc in Congress. But he does not yet have the presidency.

On October 25, Brazilians will decide whether Sunday’s surprise was merely a warning to Lula or another major step in Latin America’s continuing shift to the right.