Obamacare Enrollment Is Down Because Trump Is Attacking Fraud

In response to the recent news that Obamacare enrollment dropped by nearly three million from February 2025 to February 2026, elected Democrats and the liberal media are hysterically claiming that the Trump administration is ripping people off their insurance, blaming the expiration of COVID-era expanded subsidies. But the real reason Obamacare enrollment is down is far simpler: President Trump’s aggressive crackdown on fraud.

Approximately 2.6 million fewer people are enrolled in Obamacare exchange plans this year when compared to last year, according to official government data out late last month. The data compares how many people actually paid their first premium, in contrast to signing up for a plan, according to the Associated Press.

Many expected a drop due to the decrease in Obamacare subsidies, which expired at the end of 2025.

The Biden administration boosted the subsidies beginning in 2021, which were so generous as to allow even single individuals making $180,000 or families making half a million dollars a year to qualify, as AMAC Newsline previously reported. In many cases, people were able to buy plans without any out-of-pocket premiums.

As would be expected, health insurance profits boomed, with a majority of health insurer’s revenue coming from taxpayer subsidies. The number of people enrolled in Obamacare also skyrocketed, from 10 million at the beginning of Biden’s term to a peak of 22 million in 2024, according to Fox News. 

Democrats, liberal elites, and many corporate media pundits are now blaming the expiration of these subsidies as the reason for declining enrollment, portraying Republicans as cold, heartless ghouls.

“Emerging State Data Paint a Bleak Picture of 2026 Marketplace Enrollment,” the Commonwealth Fund wrote in its June analysis of the situation.

“The ACA subsidies that expired this year were at the center of a bitter fight in Congress last fall, with Democrats and some Republicans calling for their renewal,” the AP reported.

But such reporting downplays or even completely ignores the biggest reason for the drop in enrollment – Trump’s efforts to root out the waste, fraud, and abuse of taxpayer-funded programs.

Earlier this year, Trump appointed Vice President JD Vance and Federal Trade Commission Chair Andrew Ferguson to oversee an anti-fraud task force. Among its targets so far have been Medicare and Medicaid fraud, as well as Obamacare enrollment.

An eye-opening report released at the end of June identified an “unprecedented enrollment growth from 2021 to 2024, nearly half of which was suspected to be improper, phantom, or fraudulent.” The enrollment increase, of course, tracks exactly with the increase in subsidies. With the expanded subsidies – which were only ever supposed to be a temporary COVID-era measure – came an increased incentive to commit fraud.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says it has blocked “about 1.5 million enrollees from receiving subsidies they did not qualify for and ended or blocked another 1.4 million through February 2026, for a total of 2.9 million people who had previously been improperly receiving subsidies they did not qualify for.”

In other words, there are fewer Obamacare enrollees because the Trump administration has prevented people who never should’ve been eligible for taxpayer-subsidized healthcare in the first place from receiving it.

During the Biden years, unscrupulous insurance brokers took advantage of the enhanced subsidies, which created zero-premium plans to unwittingly enroll people. Because people never saw an actual bill, they had no way of finding out they were enrolled. Meanwhile, brokers “earn $5-$30 per-member-per-month” on these plans, according to the HHS report.

The Biden administration allowed the fraud to proliferate by gutting basic safeguards, such as income verification. The Trump administration has worked to restore these safeguards, and so far has identified at least one million people who are enrolled without a corresponding Social Security number, which is again a strong indication of fraud.

Additionally, a previous audit found that one in three Obamacare enrollees never made a claim, suggesting either they did not know they were enrolled in the plan or were unusually healthy.

Other analysts have persuasively made the case that the fraud crackdown is likely the main reason enrollment is down. Writing for National Review, Skyler Safriet points out that “more than 80 percent of cancellations over the last year came from enrollees who were assisted by a broker or an agent, which would suggest that crackdowns on the main avenue for fraudulent enrollment are effective.”

Health policy professor Aparna Soni says both fraud and the expiration of subsidies played a role in the decrease in enrollment. “Both factors probably contributed to the decline,” Soni wrote at the left-leaning Conversation. “The federal government removed some improper enrollments, but the price increase appears to have played a major role.”

Zero-premium or incredibly low-cost plans entice people to sign up who may not have otherwise. With the expiration of subsidies, it is expected a certain number of people will stop signing up for something they are not using. The ideal enrollee for an insurance company is someone who always pays the premiums but never makes a claim.

Left-wing advocacy groups and massive health insurance corporations work hand-in-hand to push a narrative that the expiration of subsidies is kicking people off of health insurance. But the truth is something far less dramatic – once Trump began shining a light on the fraud, the grifters and hucksters went running for the hills, saving taxpayers a boatload of money.

Matt Lamb is an AMAC Newsline contributor and associate editor for The College Fix. He previously worked for Students for Life of America, Students for Life Action, and Turning Point USA. He previously interned for Open the Books. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Examiner, The Federalist, LifeSiteNews, Human Life Review, Headline USA, and other outlets. The opinions expressed are his own. Follow him @mattlamb22 on X.