From the moment President Donald Trump took office last January, Americans were told that a recession was inevitable. Wall Street economists, cable news pundits, and other forecasters predicted that Trump’s tariffs, trade posture, and economic nationalism would tip the U.S. into a downward spiral. Some put the odds of a recession last year as high as 60 or even 90 percent.
But with 2025 now squarely in the rearview mirror, it’s safe to say that the “experts” were wrong. Again. The economy expanded. Prices stabilized. Jobs didn’t disappear. Consumers kept spending. Investor confidence surged. Markets climbed. The long‑predicted tariff shock failed to materialize.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP expanded at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2025, beating earlier forecasts. That surge followed 3.8 percent growth in Q2. Economists had predicted barely half that pace.
Much of this growth was fueled by a domestic energy sector that broke production records in 2025 thanks to deregulation and domestic production boosts. U.S. crude oil output hit an all-time high of 13.6 million barrels per day in July. Natural gas production and LNG exports also surged. By Christmastime, gas prices hit a four-year low, dipping below $3 per gallon.
Meanwhile, inflation, which many claimed would spike under Trump’s tariff policies, stayed in check and beat predictions. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline CPI rose just 2.7 percent year over year in November, a sharp contrast to the 9.1 percent peak in 2022. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items like food and energy, cooled to 2.6 percent. Last August, even CBS News was forced to admit that “the prices of goods and services across the U.S. have defied many economists’ expectations and remained relatively stable.”
At the same time, the labor market stayed tight, with unemployment at 4.6 percent — up slightly but still near historical lows — while job creation remained steady. BLS reported 64,000 new jobs in November, even after cuts to the federal workforce. Consumer spending held up as well, with retail sales up 3.5 percent year over year and holiday shopping seasonally strong.
The stock market, an important metric for Americans who are retired or close to retirement, posted double-digit gains across all three major indexes. The S&P 500 rose 16.4 percent, the Nasdaq 20 percent, and the Dow Jones approximately 13 percent. Investor confidence has surged under Trump’s second term.
To be sure, economic concerns and anxieties remain. The country is still dealing with the hangover effects of 20 percent cumulative inflation under the Biden administration and runaway spending. Affordability is a real concern for millions of families.
But by the end of 2025, the recession warnings had largely disappeared, quietly walked back by the same experts who had sounded them. Economists like Paul Krugman who said Trump’s tariffs would cause inflation to skyrocket were forced to admit they were wrong. JPMorgan analysts, who put the odds of a recession at 60 percent in April, admitted in July that they “no longer” saw a recession coming. Goldman Sachs, who put recession odds at 65 percent, also equivocated, dropping its forecast to 30 percent.
But these models didn’t just miss the mark. They reacted to events badly and late. As Forbes’ George Calhoun put it, these were “postdictions” not predictions.
Calhoun specifically lambasted the Federal Reserve’s recession predictor, which hit 70 percent for a recession that never came. “This was the highest level in more than 40 years, twice as high as the pandemic spike in recession probability in 2020, and 75 percent higher than the 2008 peak associated with the Great Recession,” Calhoun writes. “A year ago the model predicted with 55 percent probability that the U.S. would be in a recession right now (July 2025). Yet that recession, predicted so emphatically, has not occurred.”
“What is particularly alarming about the inaccuracy in this case,” Calhoun warns, “is that the output of this model is ostensibly an input to the formation of monetary policy. A bad gauge on the Fed’s dashboard doesn’t help the driver, even if he has learned to try and ignore it.”
If forecasting failures were just about flawed models, they’d be easier to fix. But there’s a deeper problem: political bias.
Economists consistently underestimate Trump’s policies not only because of poor math, but also because they don’t want him to succeed. That bias distorts the way data is interpreted and how predictions are made. Democrats and the corporate media weaponize bad-faith “predictions” of economic doom to frustrate and undermine Trump policies that have been proven to work.
“These weren’t random errors,” economist Stephen Moore wrote. “These were ‘hate Trump’ errors.”
Forecasting is hard. But after two Trump terms and years of blown predictions, it’s fair to ask whether the “expert” analyses are still worth listening to at all. Trump’s economic playbook — tax cuts, deregulation, energy expansion, and trade pressure — has produced steady growth and falling inflation, just as those same policies have time and again throughout history.
In 2026, we should all resolve to not listen to the naysayers peddling an impending economic apocalypse. Instead, we should trust our own common sense and intuition on what’s most likely to give our families the best opportunity to thrive.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
For stock owners, stock prices have risen substantially during the past three years and the price of gasoline dropping as well.
I still would like to see some relief at the grocery store (even Walmart’s prices are steadily increasing) and all of my insurance costs are through the roof.
Forbes executive was right all these predictions was hate Trump at all cost. Tampon Timmy is justifying ICE protest as Trump wants discord in this country. Where did he get that information. From his demented brain to clear his Somali fraud happening under his nose and he benefited from? Of course. Anything Trump achieves they don’t like. They want gloom and doom. They are waging war against Americans to protect illegal criminals that have killed and maimed and will do it again if they stay in this country. He eliminated Maduro to save the people in Venezuela. He stooped the executions of innocent Iranians by threatening to come in and help the people. President Trump is a man of peace. He has a vision for the world. Only the world don’t want to see it. Trump wants to prevent a third world war. That is why he is going after Greenland. Only NATO doesn’t see it. They forgot what America did for them 85 years ago. Ungrateful leaders of Europe. As long as we pay and send weapons and our soldiers to save their sorry asses. Otherwise they want us to stay out of their way. President Trump has put America back on a thriving economy. Strengthened our military all over the world. What is left is fighting the insurgency that has gripped the democrats in this country. If these paid anti ICE demonstrators stayed home we wouldn’t have no incidents of shooting or ramming ICE agents to kill them. They attack the agents from all sides and not one is arrested. They are attacking American citizens not a foreign force. Time for mass arrests of these demonstrators. And for the courts to follow the law and not rewrite the law to benefit the left. These people are anti America and want to destroy the opposition at all cost.
The author is right. I never believe those Trump haters. They are such ridiculous fools. Go 47!
Time for a new hat: Trust in Trump! Has Jim Cramer admitted it yet? Have ANY of the doomsayers admitted just how WRONG they were? If SCOTUS upholds tariffs America will continue to SHINE!
Most economists are idiots. My dog is a better predictor of the economy.
Blue states trying to keep prices high. We know why…
Glad it’s booming somewhere I’m not seeing it in Kentucky prices on everything is still up here so I’m not spending what little I have
They’re all just Democrat liberal socialist marxists that want to see the country fail and see Donald Trump fail. Ignore experts they have no idea what they’re talking about just like the climate experts can’t even predict the weather next week but they tell us they can predict it in 50 years oh I know I know that’s different that’s different give me some more money and I’ll keep giving you the answer you want
If only we could put a muzzle on the radical liberal media outlets, people would actually know that President Trump is making our country better with his America First policies. So many out there have no idea what great things Trump has done because they refuse to learn the TRUTH! They are living in a la la land of haters who are interfering with the good that Trump is trying to do.
Stay Alert Trump!! Thank you for all you’ve done for the greatest country on Earth! AMERICA!!!
These Trump haters are going find themselves out of job keep on predicting things are going to get bad all the time
Seems to me the reason for even having economists is to predict the future economy, If these PhD economists can not factor out their own bias, then they should get jobs catching dogs and cats which would be more fun than reading the tea leaves.
Tim Walz might be the Governor of Minnesota but he is a criminal and allowed all this fraud in the BILLIONS. Jacob Fry the Mayor of Minneapolis along wit Tim Walz are encouraging people to go after federal officers. Both Walz and Fry must be arrested and charged with treason. There is no law and order with these two buffoons and never will be. The good people of Minneapolis must take a stand and get the scum out.
The so-called “experts” are all deep-staters based in DC, NYC, or CA. They have ZERO experience with REAL people as they circulate among other “experts” who must know more than we deplorables. That economic expert from NY who in 2016 said Trump would start a depression is still quoted favorably. Then think of Dr. “Falsie” who said the stab would keep you from getting COVID or transmitting it to others! Going back many years, Pauline Kael, media “expert” from the NY Times said she didn’t know ANYBODY who voted for Nixon after his nearly unanimous sweep! So much for “experts.”
Soothsayers rarely get things right. That’s all modern economists have become. Same with weather forecasters. If you work at any government institution, you can be wrong 100% of the time, get paid, keep your job, and maybe even get a bonus. I’m not sure what these people are using for data, but I’m pretty sure it’s tea leaves, goat entrails, tarot cards or some other highly useful form of prediction.
I voted for this and everything else he is doing! Best President ever!!!
I wish people would realize what I did. Never under estimate Donald J. Trump. He can because he thinks he can. We could all learn a lesson from him. The democrats hate him because he has the Midas touch. And yes, everything he touches turns to gold.
“Experts” Wrong Again – Trump Economy Booming as Recession Predictions Go Bust
I must disagree with the use of the word “wrong.” I submit that the so-called “experts,” most of whom are Leftists, are fully invested in doing everything possible to ensure the Trump agenda fails, even if that is bad for the country and our citzens, and so are just plain lying. And that tells us all we need to know about the “experts,” doesn’t it?
Many of the so-called “economists” and “economic experts” are infected with TDS and instictively biased, so their “predictions” are dead wrong. President Trump is a successful businessman and understands the complexities of the Economy better than these ivory tower pundits.who have never held a “real” job.
Someone mentioned Somali fraud, and I want to chime in on that subject. There is no way that those Minnesota politicians are not getting large monetary kickbacks-backs from all that fraud. They wrote those programs into law IN ORDER TO create this fraud, in order to line their own pockets. It was intentional embezzlement, and that aspect of this fraud needs to be investigated.
Maybe it’s about time for all of these Trump haters to get a taste of their own medicine. Throughout the Biden administration people were getting canceled all of the time for reporting the truth. It’s time for the liars and Trump haters to get a serious dose of their own medicine and get canceled for good. There are way too many evil people in this world today.
You can tout his victories all you want. It is not getting through to most people. I am a Trump supporter but everyone I talk to says they are not feeling any benefits, except in gas prices. Businesses are telling people that Trump’s tariffs are the cause of price increases. The Liberal messaging machine is on full blast. The Conservative messaging only preaches to the choir. I don’t see more jobs in my area. Until the message gets to the entire populace and they see great economic improvement, any Trump gains will not be noticed and he will have a fight to retain supporters.
Why am I suddenly unable to click my support on the comments below? Will I be able to because I am doing a comment of my own first? I buy a lot of protein rich foods, eggs are down and beef is not. I spend more per ounce buying Angus beef burgers but two of them give me almost as much protein as three regular burgers so I eat less and therefore buy less (I’m talking boxes of already formed burgers) so I still come out ahead. No matter what it pays to be savvy!
Regarding ALL the naysayers, doom and gloom economists, slimy speculators, Paulie CRUDman,Forbe’s George CalGOON, and all the other TDS-SUFFERING morons, the only word you can trust that they’ll utter is “NOTHING”.
No such things as Experts. No even more than ever. Todays “Experts” have a political agenda in their……expertise jibber-jabber on any given talk show they appear on.
I get Investopedia updates daily and the site constantly cites “expert predictions” about doom-and-gloom economic forecasts, while bashing President Trump because of his tariffs. The only reason why I allow the emails is because they do have some good articles and suggestions.
Have been wrong since this term began
Not counting gasoline and groceries, under Brandon our monthly bills went up $2K, financial (insurance and fees) plus natural gas the leader. Those need to come down. Had a bit of moderation on the natural gas.
TDS won’t allow them to admit Trumps success. They choose to work against him rather than help our country and citizens. JMO
Voted for ‘The Man’ 3 times, and go along with what he has to say, for the most part. But he obviously shops at different grocery stores, as WalMart and Kroger are still higher than a cats back. We buy what we can from Dollar General and Dollar Tree, but those are NOT really grocery stores, are they?
The moment I learned that Biden turned off the oil spigot, I said we will have terrible inflation. He even hurt Canada by shutting down the Keystone XL Pipeline. Energy is the number 2 cause of inflation, after wages. Trump reversed that and look at what little inflation we now have. But, thanks to Biden, or maybe I should write “his cabal”, we have a huge increase in prices which will probably never go down.
What a great article from Sarah Sisk at Heritage Foundation! I’m going to share this when every social media platform to which I subscribe with the hope that left leaning friends see more of the truth than their media present.
I’m not seeing anything but raising prices in everything and I mean everything. But part of that is the fact that my Communist controlled state keeps implementing new taxes and raising current taxes. And they are committed to make certain their control over the state is perennial.
Economist Paul Krugman is as socialist liberal left as they come. He seems to live in an unrealistic alt universe. In January 2013, Krugman advocated for minting a trillion-dollar platinum coin to avoid debt ceiling crisis.
Great article Sarah, thank you, President Trump can be a little overbearing at times, with all of his bravado, but, the TRUTH should never be overbearing, and should always be listened to. I trust him, He has God given wisdom in economics, and we are being blessed by GOD to have him as President. THE BIBLE SAYS SO.
A Booming economy … in my opinion is a bit of a stretch. With debt in the two digit trillions, grocery prices still high, housing prices out of reach for many, and the dollar worth less each year … calling our economy booming … is a bald face lie.
That said. Even an NBC reporter said that since January of 2025 .. our debt has been reduced by 90 Billion dollars …(of course not going as far as suggesting a Republican President might have had with Doge and tariffs .. anything to do with that reduced debt.)
The stock market has done well … but short of an actual depression, it seems to climb higher no matter who is in charge. Any one investing in gold and silver … is kind of making a killing right now. Gold is up over 40% and silver is up almost 200% in the last year.
But to get there … our country is still strongly divided, we applauded Israel’s skirmish … we are still funding Ukraine, we have invaded Venezuela, and we are contemplating an invasion of Iran, and Greenland. So all is not well in America … heightened economy or what.
Dollar has had its biggest decline in 50 years… the stock market is up, but your money is worth much less
Inflation is still too high! Folks on fixed incomes are still struggling and costs of groceries is still more than the last year of Biden’s term. Tariffs are effecting American consumers and the debt is still too high! Trump’s first term had better economic results! Voters aren’t buying the Biden’s inflation causing economic woes when inflation is down.
You are delusional. No jobs; no drop in prices except gasoline; volatile stock market; tariffs costing us $1700 a person. You Trumpers just tell yourself whatever you have to in order to get through the day but the economy is tanking.