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Has Biden Inadvertently Pushed Russia into Invading Ukraine?

Posted on Monday, February 14, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

Russia

With Russian troops poised on the doorstep of Ukraine, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested on Friday that Russia plans to launch an invasion as early as next Wednesday. Der Spiegel, a German outlet, has also allegedly acquired detailed plans for a Russian attack, including proposed invasion routes. If Russia does indeed invade Ukraine, then there will be one clear reason: it will be because Joe Biden and his administration have fundamentally misunderstood Russia’s aims and worldview, and thus missed numerous opportunities to deescalate—leaving the Russians feeling (rightly or wrongly) that they have to do something to break the stalemate.

A few weeks ago, I outlined my skepticism that Vladimir Putin wished to either conquer Ukraine, or to escalate his long-term conflict with the West—and I stand by that analysis today. Russia’s behavior is a response to the passive aggression of U.S. policy since 2014–behavior that would force any Russian leader, no matter how pro- or anti-western, to take action to break an unsustainable status quo.

Oligarchies (and Russia is an oligarchic autocracy more than an individual autocracy as Saddam’s Iraq was) do not embark on wars lightly, especially when the physical and economic security of the entire elite and their families depend on the maintenance of the regime. The fates of the oligarchs and officials who grew up around the Yeltsin regime are ever-present in the memory of Russian officials today. The wealthy and powerful in Russia gain their status from their association with the political system and justify their status by the perceived “success” of that system. The failure of that system to properly serve Russia would delegitimize them. They would not lose reelection. They would lose their property, their positions, and if they did not flee fast enough, their lives.

If Russia is going to start a major international war, it is because the alternative is seen as holding a greater probability of failure than rolling the dice. Here is where the Biden administration has fundamentally and consistently failed to understand Russian interests, and therefore refused to seriously attempt to address them diplomatically. The Biden administration, whether honestly or because they wish for a conflict, has treated Russian complaints – about the loss of the Soviet Union, about promises broken regarding NATO expansion – as actual Russian demands, thereby painting them as delusional, impossible, and dishonest. This, in turn allows the Biden administration to create an impression that Russia is not negotiating in good faith but rather seeking pretexts for invasion in the rejection of their demands.

But these grievances are worth further examination. It is true Russia has brought up both Gorbachev’s abandonment of the Soviet Union and of the Russian position in Eastern Europe as mistakes. It is also true that they see NATO expansion as a betrayal. But despite airing these grievances, Russia has explicitly not demanded the annexation of any territory, nor has it demanded NATO reverse expansion, which has already taken place. It has not demanded Hungary and Poland leave NATO. In other words, these are complaints and observations, not demands they expect to be fulfilled.

What, then, does Russia actually want?

First and foremost, Russia is trapped in Ukraine. Since 2014, the lack of international recognition of Crimea has acted as a justification for sanctions on pretty much any Russian official or entity. This has had knock-on effects in Ukraine, where, egged on by Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has used the pretext that anyone who suggested an agreement with Russia over the Crimea was engaged in treason in order to get around Ukraine’s own laws and seize the assets of political opponents, effectively shutting down the opposition media and the most popular party in the country. In the West, “Crimea” and “sanctions” are weaponized by politicians against their political opponents, as seen by how Democrats used “Russiagate” to undermine Donald Trump, eventually trying to impeach him, and by the media campaign waged in Britain to suggest Brexit was a product of Russian meddling. Russian politicians have concluded that lack of recognition of Crimea is actually not just a threat, but a situation that serves Western politicians well, as it allows them to beat their opponents with it and keep control of Ukraine by purging anyone who dissents as “pro-Russian.”

In the meantime, the Donbass region, which is occupied by separatists, has not just been an economic drain, but a cancerous influence on Russian domestic politics. Russia’s efforts to reach a settlement at Minsk which would return Donbass to Ukraine in exchange for influence in Kiev is (in the Russian view) not only is of little interest to Western politicians and Ukrainian nationalist politicians–who would much rather use a continued Russian presence to strengthen their domestic position–, but it has also turned the separatists into a source of opposition in Russia. Discontented paramilitaries have taken to accusing the Kremlin of being sellouts, attacking Putin as a traitor, and engaging in crime and violence. As one prominent example, Igor Strelkov, who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea and fighting in the Donbass before being removed, has turned into a loud Putin critic.

How can Russia escape? Well, this is where the analogies which Biden confuses for demands come in. The Minsk negotiations were a process by which Russia was going to give up the Donbass in favor of something. The problem is, it was obvious Ukraine, and the West were not willing to pay anything for it, as they concluded they gained more from the Russian occupation than they would from making concessions to end it. That still seems to be the position of the Biden administration. That leaves Russia the option of returning it unconditionally. Herein lies the analogy with Gorbachev.

In the view not just of Putin but many Russians, Gorbachev’s error was not in giving up the Warsaw Pact or any territory at all. Even in the eyes of the most extreme Russian nationalists, there were many components of the Soviet Empire which cost more than they were worth. Gorbachev’s error was in assuming that the Soviet Empire itself was the source of Western hostility, and that if he gave it up in exchange for goodwill, he would receive reciprocal benefits in return. Gorbachev abandoned East Germany, Poland, Hungary, and the Balkans. Not only were oral promises (such as the promise of a delayed, slow compromise process on German reunification, and talks over NATO membership) ignored, but the new governments in their former satellite states showed no gratitude. Rather than being “grateful” for Russian forces leaving, Poland and Ukraine became militantly anti-Russian.

When Putin and other Russian officials discuss the end of the Soviet Union and Western betrayal, they make two points. First, the lesson that unilateral withdrawal earns not goodwill but greater hostility. Every region from which Russia has willingly withdrawn has turned hostile. As such, there is no reason to believe that if Russia withdrew from the Donbass, Ukraine would respond by being friendlier to Russia. Rather, the conclusion is that it would vindicate anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalists who would then push for an even more aggressive policy in the expectation the same strategy would work in Crimea. Second, Russian leaders are convinced, not without reason, that U.S. promises are worthless.

Putin or any Russian leader, therefore, cannot withdraw from the Donbass in exchange for nothing, much less in a way that is perceived as vindicating U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian anti-Russian defiance. That is what they have been saying. Nor can they accept abstract statements of goodwill. That is what the references to the 1990s reflect.

What then can they do? There are two politically acceptable options. The first, ironically, is for the Biden administration to take a very hard line. While the Russians cannot withdraw unilaterally, there is a long tradition in Russian history of withdrawing in the face of overwhelming force. If the Russian elite can portray the U.S./NATO forces present as overwhelming, they can justify concessions. These would, of course be painted as temporary, but it would resolve the current conflict without war, and, if it eliminated the problems of the Donbass, might pave the way for improved relations.

Biden has already rejected this option. By ruling out the use of American force, he has advertised weakness. He has not even bluffed. By making clear the U.S. will not fight for Ukraine, he makes it impossible for Putin or anyone else to justify concessions on the basis that Russia cannot win militarily and had no choice but to stand down. The United States has undercut that argument.

That leaves the second and final option. This is one in which any settlement must involve a demonstration to Ukraine that the West recognizes the futility of a hardline anti-Russian policy. This means that the West must be made to abandon Ukraine, thereby proving to the Ukrainians that any settlement must be made with Russia. Ideally, this would be accomplished by bluff. If the West were to recognize the Crimea as Russian and drop sanctions, it would represent an abandonment of Ukrainian claims and tell the Ukrainians that NATO is not a route to recover the Crimea. Putin in fact hinted last week that Russian concerns about Ukrainian NATO membership are related to continued Ukrainian claims to the Crimea, suggesting that if Ukraine joined NATO, it could force a war between the U.S. and Russia by trying to take back the Crimea. Such a settlement would also probably involve a recognition that accepting Russia’s influence in Ukraine is not treason, the justification used to repress pro-Russian politicians and media and prevent Russia from achieving influence legally.

Russia would likely prefer to resolve these issues peacefully. But the Biden administration is not even acknowledging the existence of these issues, much less considering concessions which will involve domestic costs. If the West and U.S. will not force Ukraine to recognize the Russian presence in the Crimea and will not provide cover for a Russian stand down through a hardline approach, then Russia (in the minds of its leadership, if not in fact) has no choice but to use force and compel Ukraine to accept that “reality” at gunpoint.

None of this should be taken to mean that I am arguing Russia is in the right, Ukraine in the wrong, or that the U.S. should concede. Rather, this is simply the fact of what is happening. Nations pursue their own interests, and the international system often works best when they are honest about that. Russia has interests that any Russian leader, not just Putin, would recognize. The U.S. has interests as well. The U.S. has to make choices and judgments about how to pursue them. If the U.S. is not willing to use overwhelming force to compel Russia to back down, and yet is also unwilling to discuss accommodating Russian interests peacefully, it leaves Russian leaders feeling they have few options; namely, the choice between pursuing the “discredited” strategy of Gorbachev, or gambling on their own strength. After Afghanistan, Biden has all but invited the Russians to do the latter.

Biden needs to offer a way out, be prepared to fight, or accept the consequences.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.  

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Richard Hennessy
Richard Hennessy
2 years ago

Biden hasn’t “pushed” Russia to invade; he has enticed Russia by displaying his weakness, but that’s not a surprise for a fraudulent president.

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

Weakness and stupidity almost always invites aggression and Biden has oozed both in spades since Day One. Just like Obama did when he was POTUS, as well as Jimmy Carter during his disastrous term in office. One bad policy choice after another, cumulating in multiple foreign and domestic failures. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the adversaries of the United States would take this golden opportunity to see what they can get during a time where the United States is suffering from several, self-inflicted wounds caused by extremely bad policy choices of this administration. By the way, the same can be said for much of the EU as they pursued policies that make them more dependent on Russian natural gas after choosing to stupidly pursue “green energy” alternatives that cost significantly more and don’t work as their leaders had blindly hoped. As the author states, nations pursue their own interests and Russia is currently pursuing theirs in the face of what Putin sees as weakness across the table.

I’m sure Biden and his administration will continue to allow Russia to set the terms of engagement. That’s what weak and stupid administrations do. They negotiate from a position of weakness and accept whatever the other side wants. If the Biden administration were somewhat intelligent, they would have already instituted a broad array of economic sanctions to make the prospect of invading Ukraine economically too costly to be worth pursuing from Putin’s perspective. Putin’s economy is a one trick pony (oil and natural gas) and he can’t afford to lose or reduce his primary revenue stream. Not if he expects to continue modernizing his military and maintain a firm grip on power. Yet the Biden administration is only saying they will consider economic sanctions AFTER Russia has taken what it wants. Again, weakness and stupidity with a low probability that the Biden administration will even enact the proper economic sanctions.

The EU has already signaled they are deeply fractured and incapable of mounting a serious response, either diplomatically or militarily, to Putin, so they pose no credible threat to deter Putin at this point. So the only real question is how much of Ukraine does Russia want to take control of this time around. Meanwhile while all this is going on, President Xi of China is studying the response of the west to Russia to assess when he can make his move on Taiwan. All while both Iran and North Korea have recently introduced a new set of long range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

To “cover” his deals But I doubt pushed Russia into Ukraine

Harry Guzaliak
Harry Guzaliak
2 years ago

Remember what President Trump said, Don’t mess with Putin, He was right.

mhj
mhj
2 years ago

What makes you think all the provocatiobns have been “inadvertent”? A lot of people held in high regard by the “establishment” have been spoiling for a fight and egging teh ADministration on to confront Russia, and the Admin has been studiously ignoring all Putin’s signals that he wants to negotiate.

Peter Joseph
Peter Joseph
2 years ago

Ouch! Playing chicken with Biden in Ukraine by threatening force merely to give Putin a way out is dangerous. Putin would never back down to Biden. Russia wouldn’t be having these problems with their neighbors if they would just stop threatening and conquering them. Let Europe settle their own problems.

J. Farley
J. Farley
2 years ago

This Moron (Lying Biden) will get us all killed, if he is not impeached, if he were President Trump, the Democrats would have impeached him a dozen times by now, and the New Media would have impeached him every day.
Here in the west, we say grab hold Cowboys and Cowgrils we are in for a Hell’ve Ride.

Stabe
Stabe
2 years ago

The military industrial complex has puppeted him. Think about it. No war. No profits. Also there’s a parallel purpose. The so predictable tactic of taking everyone’s focus off of domestic issues and goad everyone into, ahem, unifying. Best guy to take the handoff from this demented jerk is Trump. The sooner the better, despite what left wingo whackos say about Trump.

Mike B.
Mike B.
2 years ago

This is a catastrophe. This corrupt administration has blundered everything it touches. All thought President Trump was a war monger . Our nation is in dire straits because of the incompetence of this president, and whoever is running this nation. Their carelessness can possibly start a major war. All was peaceful when President Trump had the reign . God help us .

Myrna Wade
Myrna Wade
2 years ago

Nancy Pelosi has already revealed that when Russia stands down, Biden’s brilliance in causing full-stop to invasion will be obvious. Russia probably never intended to do anything but show strength.
Since Biden has shown no protection of the US border, why is whatever he is saying about Ukraine’s border of any importance? This is all show. I hope enough Americans understand so that he cannot retrieve any appearance of strength.

Philip Hammersley
Philip Hammersley
2 years ago

A good question to ask: Why does the Senile administration create more agitation about war than the Ukrainian administration? Does Senile Joe WANT a Russian invasion as a diversion from his TOTAL FAILURE thus far? Or does he know that Putin is saber-rattling and when Putin doesn’t invade that Biden can take credit?

Skeet
Skeet
2 years ago

Keyword being “inadvertently “. Haha what a laugh! Replace that word with “purposely”, and it would be more correct! Biden, and his behind-the-scenes handlers, will do anything for distraction from the real troubles he causes in America.

George Rivera Jr
George Rivera Jr
2 years ago

Not unintended at all. The Biden crime syndicate needs the invasion to cover their crimes. Also, international banking interests need distractions to slide in their “reset”. No more, no less.

Maurice Brandt
Maurice Brandt
2 years ago

This is what we get for allowing someone who is losing his mental capability be the President of the United States. WAKE UP AMERICA!

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
2 years ago

That or tacit permission because Putin knows the only military resistance will be Ukraine and no one else.

Boz
Boz
2 years ago

Inadvertently???

Tootles
Tootles
2 years ago

The Biden administration is looking for any way to look like heroes what or whoever it destroys. A failed president.

Bob L.
Bob L.
2 years ago

“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt

So true in the 1930s and still true today.

Carlyle Smith
Carlyle Smith
2 years ago

Putin, XI, and Biden are all into this together!! World domination.

Wayne Peterkin
Wayne Peterkin
2 years ago

Biden has been such a disaster at everything he has touched, he is desperately looking at means of deflecting attention from his failures and looking strong, especially before the midterms. Toward that end, the fool may well trigger WW3. I suspect that were he to assure Putin that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO the invasion threat might be resolved without major bloodshed.

George Washington's Admirer
George Washington's Admirer
2 years ago

Back to the chessboard. There is mysterious activity in the center of the board. On the edges are the now forgotten Canadian Truckers. Even the Russian propagandists do not mention the ‘Freedom Truckers’ in their ‘news’ anymore. All the big players want the diversionary tactic of a ‘senile’ democratic ‘leader’; as they don’t want insurrection played out in their country. Back to the FEAR STORY BOARD. The Story Board has a slight hitch as it makes the transition from FACE MASKS to the FEAR of World War with Russia. Always lurking in the background is the defunding of the police. The Democrats/Communists deny any involvement in demonizing or defunding police. The crime rate increases by 800% as we are distracted by a bungled senile leader. It is almost as if the democratic party wants to commit suicide. Is this the democratic party? It has taken me forever, to detect the real democratic party? The democrats have always been the same; they are just coming out of the closet as communists. Meanwhile back at the Kremlin; Biden & Company is a source of amusement and entertainment. Oh, yea, Biden is going to make ‘decisive’ decisions. Is anybody going to sleep well in the country anymore? God Preserve Our Beautiful Country!

Michael Peterson
Michael Peterson
2 years ago

For anyone to believe that Dementia Joe is calling the shots in all this for the United States of America is laughable!

Bill
Bill
2 years ago

Biden is intentionally, through his incompetence, pressuring Putin to respond in such a way that Biden can be the hero “commander in chief” which he thinks will raise his polling above the cesspool level. Hopefully Putin will respond with a cool head as our military, under current leadership, is no longer capable of mounting a concerted response.

David
David
2 years ago

Lesson # 1 Don’t let a person who has dementia negotiate a peace treaty for a nation.

GKP
GKP
2 years ago

When is the USA liberal loonies and the USA media going to realize this idiot needs to be in the Nursing HOME today// If they let Jill out of her cage then Assisted Living might work out//Either way Hillary would be glad to assist them<but she is so crooked that her help is worthless and John Durham believes she has committed TREASON and belongs in Jail// Maye the Trumpster will get a wish this tim around//America needs a new President now and the Conservatives will win big in the house and Senate to set up TRUMP for another 4 years// THANK GOD FOR A CHANGE ASAP///

Magali
Magali
2 years ago

Consider: How useful would it be to distract Americans from the trainwreck at home? Esp in midterm/ election year…

Deplorable in GA
Deplorable in GA
2 years ago

let’s go brandon!

Gary
Gary
2 years ago

The situation with Ukraine and Russia seems a little off to me. Russia pulls up to your back door and appears to threaten to enter . And , the US with guests in Ukraine tells Americans to get out . It almost seems as though the US is saying to Russia that OK , our people are leaving soon . And soon the way will be clear . Is it possible that Russia is doing Biden a big favor ? Putin knows that the Bidens have been doing business with Ukraine. And therefore, there may be records and witnesses to Biden’s business . And Russian was recently given the OK regarding their Nordstream pipe line . Is this whole think a big set-up ? AND, where the hell is the UN on all these goings on . Isn’t this exactly what the UN exists for ? I haven’t heard even one peep out of media or the government about any UN consideration .

Art
Art
2 years ago

THIS IS A FXXXED UP GAME. LONG TERM HE CAN NOT WIN. SHORT TERM THERE WOULD BE MAJOR LOSSES IN A DIRECT CONFRONTATION. MY OPINION IS THAT IF PUTIN “ATTACKS” AND IS SUCCESSFUL HE WILL BE SURROUNDED BY MORE NATO MILITARY ON THE BORDERS THAN HE MAY IMAGINE. THAT DEFEATS HIS GOAL OF REPULSING NATO. UKRAINE HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE RUSSIAN SEPARATISTS FOR SEVERAL YEARS IN THE EAST OF THE COUNTRY’S TWO AREAS THAT ABUT THE CRIMEAN ANNEXATION BY RUSSIA. STOP THE CRAP. FIGHT OR GO HOME. AS AN ADDENDUM, HOW LONG HAVE WE/US HAVE BEEN WAITING TO GET OUR CIVILIAN/FEDERAL AFGHANISTAN ANYONE????????

Splish_Splash
Splish_Splash
2 years ago

NOT INADVERTANTLY AT ALL!

ajk
ajk
2 years ago

Biden knows not what he is doing…He should be put out to pasture! God have mercy!

Stephen Greenwe;;
Stephen Greenwe;;
2 years ago

The former “soviet socialist republics” did not become hostile to Russia after being released form the “union”. They did not want to be part of the Russian empire under the tsars and they did not want to join the communist empire later. I doubt that Ukrainians forget the kulak famines under Lenin and Stalin.
The former Warsaw Pact countries did not become hostile to Russia in “gratitude” for being released from the pact either. Half of Poland was partitioned first into the tsarist empire and later into the soviet empire, against its will. Neither the Magyars nor the western Slavs wanted to trade in Austrian emperors for communist emperors either.
I do think that expanding NATO after the Soviet Union imploded was what Talleyrand would have called “a mistake”. The US should have taken the opportunity to develop a non-interventionist, America-first foreign policy that kept us out of open-ended, no-purpose, no-win wars. The intelligentsia of the State Department blew it.
Now is the time to cut losses, can the CFR types in the State Dept., and develop a non-interventionist foreign policy.

Deploreable Sam
Deploreable Sam
2 years ago

Just a thought here but has anyone considered asking President Putin if he would like to JOIN NATO?
I can think of SEVERAL common adversaries we share with Russia.
Just sayin’.
Also, remember what bo said, something to the tune of, “never underestimate how much fiden can phuque up”.
Fjb
Let’s Go Brandon
Buck fiden

And have a wonderful day.

Barb
Barb
2 years ago

And don’t forget, this is “the Big Guy” who knows all about “foreign policy”. For about four decades. He knows so much, he has his past compadres stepping in to cover his behind and try to fix what he has really screwed up. Do you know anyone else who has done so much damage to America in so little time?

Nina Rae
Nina Rae
2 years ago

This was inevitable from the moment a Democrat was elected President. Their game plan revolves around getting the USA involved in a ‘Conflict’ or all out War somewhere in the world. I’ve seen it happen repeatedly. This way they can cover their fraudulent deeds under war expenses.

Adonis
Adonis
2 years ago

Speaking of dumb woke corrupt illegitimate regime? Here it is.

Russell Badolato
Russell Badolato
2 years ago

Here’s the way I see Biden gets us into a war Russia and China then surrenders and we are all forced to live under Communist rule while Biden and the Democrat elite continue to live the good life. Wait a minute did this already happen???

Richard
Richard
2 years ago

Always remember, a “magician” will ALWAYS distract your vision away from what he’s actually doing… Hmmm… Reminds me of someone named Joe and his buddy, Xi, and his buddy Putin…

MICHAEL D BROWN
MICHAEL D BROWN
2 years ago

Maybe this is how Biden is giving Ukraine to Russia, and will give Taiwan to China in like manner.

MICHAEL D BROWN
MICHAEL D BROWN
2 years ago

They are soon to become experienced dolts.

Kenneth Wiezer
Kenneth Wiezer
2 years ago

Joseph Biden distances himself from American 1st with distain efforts. He must step down.

DJ Jowers
DJ Jowers
2 years ago

This is possibly the most succinct, thorough, well thought out presentation of the region that I have read. Thanks.

BAE
BAE
2 years ago

Joe Biden and his out of tough administration are going to cost American lives. More blood and treasure ………… what fools. SCARY!!!

Burmgal
Burmgal
2 years ago

Well, Globalists push wars to cut the population of the planet, which is one of their goals. I am sure our present administration knows what they are doing.

BwaHa
BwaHa
2 years ago

Heck, biden “inadvertently” became POTUS! The fool has no idea what he’s doing. May our good Lord save us from biden’s idiocy! IMHO…

MAGA2024! TRUMP2024!
FJB! LET’S GO BRANDON!

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

The Biden administration is a collection of bumbling fools, not so different from his former boss’s administration…
Putin is fully aware of this & I too stand by my original assessment on Russia invading the Ukraine, it won’t happen despite the fact that Biden needs his little war to distract peoples attention away from his absolutely terrible job leading this nation. I don’t need to list his 1st year of catastrophes as potus, all of us are experiencing it first hand…Every American citizen, even those not born yet will be impacted by the installation of a faux democrat administration & many elements of all ( 3 ) branches of US govt. not only allowing a rigged election to stand but actively involved in making it happen…The Executive, Legislative & Judicial, i.e. courts, allowed it all to come to fruition…
Daniel Roman, ( pen name ) has done a credible job writing up his opinion in this article…
Meanwhile back at home: End the MANDATES, end the vaccine PASSPORTS, get the MASKS off of our children, end CRT, end The 1619 project & on & on it goes…
God Bless America…
Bill… :~)

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

Well stated Patriot Will…
Bill… :~)

Bill T
Bill T
2 years ago

Guess they all forgot what they were accusing TRUMP of during his presidency, poor diplomatic policies and he was going to start the next world war? We’ll the hypocrites are once again doing exactly what they constantly accuse everyone else of! WW3 is as real as ever with this imposter of a president we now are unfortunately stuck with.

Karen
Karen
2 years ago

It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he did. What a moron!!!!!!!!

Bruce s.
Bruce s.
2 years ago

Thank you Mr.Roman for a most informative education on this matter. Both sides of the aisle could benefit from this common sense outlook. I believe that The mostly Russian speaking Eastern Ukrainian would like to go back to Russia.

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