Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

Current Polling on 2022 Midterms: Could Republicans Take the House and Senate?

Republicans

In American politics these days, every election is the most important election of our lifetime, because the stakes continue to be raised on an increasing number of issues that impact the daily lives of Americans. While non-presidential elections get less fanfare in the media they are no less important. In fact, midterm elections have historically served as a check on the power of the Presidency and the party controlling Congress. This is a natural and necessary ebb and flow of power, designed to prevent any permanent majority from emerging. 

As we have previously quipped on these pages, over the last 40 years of midterm elections, the party that controls the U.S. House of Representatives typically loses, on average, 26 seats. Today, Democrats hold a three-vote majority, 221-209, with five vacancies (218 seats needed for a majority). A 26-seat victory this November would handily give Republicans control of the House. 

In the Senate, things are even closer with the current 50-50 split. This year, 35 Senate seats are up for election, with 15 Republican and 13 Democrat incumbents running, and seven open seats, six of which were held by Republicans. Fortunately for Republicans, even though they are defending more seats than Democrats and have to compete in open seats vacated by Republicans, some of which are in purple-ish states like North Carolina, they have the historical wind at their back. 

Recent polling of the generic congressional ballot over the cycle shows a Real Clear Politics average of 45.8% support for Republicans compared to 42.3% for Democrats. One would expect the Republican congressional ballot poll average to be higher, especially with a President in office with an abysmal 51.7% unfavorable RCP average but even that small advantage translates to enough seats to take the House. Liberal pundits are seeming to sense something big is coming. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd referred to the upcoming midterm elections as being “bad or catastrophic” for Democrats. With inflation hitting 8.5% over the last year as of March 31st, and continuing to rise, who can blame Americans for not being on board with the Democratic agenda? 

Two of the nation’s top political ratings forecasters, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, moved 8 and 11 competitive House races, respectively, all in favor of Republicans. Cook’s analysis summed up the mood most Americans are feeling today, stating “President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities.”

Given all of these factors, political observers are now saying that the question is not if Republicans will take back Congress, but the question is by how much?

Bob Carlstrom is President of AMAC Action


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Robin Boyd
4 days ago

We need more of a President Trump attitude in Congress regardless of which political party it comes from. President Trump is not a staunch conservative and he opposes D.C. Swamp dwellers from either party. Too many Socialist Democrats.

Becky
9 days ago

And this time….the Traitorous, useless, corrupt GOP had better get off their azzes and start FIXING things!
Or…. it’s time for an “all hands on deck” march ON Washington DC that will make Jan 6th pale in comparison……

Robin Boyd
4 days ago
Reply to  Becky

There are still too many D.C. Swamp dwellers in the Republican Party. Still, that does not make the Republican Party as overall bad as the Democrat Party which is completely controlled by Socialist minded Progressives who are merely doing the bidding of billionaire Socialists and Communist Chinese. I’ll vote for a moderate Democrat over a swamp dwelling Republican any day.

BAE
9 days ago

Oh God, I hope the republicans take the House and Senate. But when they do, I hope they do right by the American taxpayers. We have been let down so often!

BACKWOODS
10 days ago

stopthewho.com is a must before this hidden agenda gets passed. The Biden administration is trying to sneak this through, it is going to be devastating to this countries sovereignty. The Biden administration plans on selling us out to the WHO, giving them and the UN total control of our health.

Becky
9 days ago
Reply to  BACKWOODS

Yes they do. With Bill Gates leading the evil.

Garye
10 days ago

Certainly good news for America Mr. Carlstrom!
My concern is two-fold, will Republican voters become complacent between now and the election? Are the Republicans going to make significant changes benefitting Citizens or focus on politics over policies???
Historically, the Citizens and their priorities seem to become less important after the voting.
We need a positive America first agenda and the leaders to make it happen.
Thanks for the article,thought provoking and well written.

Robert Zuccaro
11 days ago

Even then I have my doubts based on the field of Republicans I see in Nevada that they will do anything FOR ME. The one good thing is that even if Republicans don’t do “FOR ME” unlike Democrats, they don’t do anything TO ME! Is it too much to just be left alone by this government? Ever since Biden got in office, it has been one thing after another that actually affects my everyday life!

PFARIZONA
11 days ago

Biden’s approval rating at 42%. I find it hard to believe it’s that high. And the suburban housewives who voted for him, how’s that working out for you? Republicans will save America. Democrats have put America on the road to destruction. We bette get off that road in November!

Panamajack
11 days ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Thanks for posting!!!

Mario Capparuccini
10 days ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Very good post. Afghanistan, inflation, soaring crime, Ukraine, and I wonder who the 42% are? They must be blind, or depraved, or on George Soros’ payroll!

Garye
10 days ago

Mario,
Isn’t it amazing that they claim 75 million voted for joebama but none of them admit it now????
The ones who did must be SO proud of this 100% failure ……laughable

Garye
10 days ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Yes, the direction of the marxist democrat party has been disastrous for Our Country!
Let’s go People, Our turn to take back America!

Barb
11 days ago

I would think the Republicans could take the House and Senate with all the “democrat storms” going on for the past 16+ months, but my grandma used to always say “don’t count your chickens before they hatch”. The Republicans should not let their guard down at all, as the democrats always have some sneaky crooked ways going in motion.

Robert Zuccaro
11 days ago
Reply to  Barb

I’m predicting another COVID “variant” that states invoke more “emergency measures” to voting laws like in 2020…

Dave
11 days ago
Reply to  Robert Zuccaro

You catch on slow…

Martin Plecki
12 days ago

I say don’t any Republican get complacent. We thought we had the presidencies sewed up in 2020 and Democrats came up with a way to cheat their way to getting their guy in the White House. Volunteer to watch polls. And, talk to your Democratic acquaintances:-)

Panamajack
11 days ago
Reply to  Martin Plecki

My thoughts exactly!

Mike
11 days ago
Reply to  Martin Plecki

Trump implemented some good policies, but he has a very abrasive personality. He says some really stupid and divisive things. If he could just keep his mouth shut and stay off social media, he would be less of a target, and we would undoubtedly win hands down in November. Yet he won’t so he will lose again. He is our biggest liability. I am not a Republican. I am a conservative independent. We need someone who can bring America together. Trump has shown that he is either incapable or unwilling to do so.

Honey
10 days ago
Reply to  Mike

Do not be silly.
DeSantis is perfect. We all know that. But do you think the left media won’t demonize him even worse than they did Trump?
It has nothing to do with Trump’s behavior. The left demonized Romney and McCain. Nice well behaved, moderate sweet accommodating people. That’s all they have, lying projection, destruction and demonizing. The left has nothing good to offer. Whatever they touch they ruin.

If Trump runs, vote for him and say nothing to any liberal about his faults. That is their game,. It is not ours.
I hate “yes, but” when it comes to our side.

Garye
10 days ago
Reply to  Mike

I’ll take a bit of sarcasm, direct speak to the swamp,over this pathetic joebama and marxist democrats failure!
President Trump was for America and Citizens!
Greatest President of my lifetime!!

Sockgal
9 days ago
Reply to  Mike

You are totally correct. My feelings exactly.

Stephen Russell
12 days ago

See NO real Vision or Plans & NO strong leadership visible Yet save Cruz, Jordan, Cotton, Cawthorn, Scott,

Patriot Bill
12 days ago

Two parties
One hates America and wants to destroy it
The other wants to promote life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
But we have lost justice, law and common sense. If the election isn’t rigged the Republicans should lead for the next 100 years. Ultra MAGA ;)

Dave
11 days ago
Reply to  Patriot Bill

The other wants to promote life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Wow…have you been sold a bill of goods…!

Panamajack
11 days ago
Reply to  Dave

Compared to this…. $5 a gal gasoline, Genocide in Ukraine, and a Pres w/ a Crack Head for a son… :^) — this is a bill of goods

Dave
11 days ago
Reply to  Panamajack

Hate to tell you, but they’ve spiked your punch…

Robert Zuccaro
11 days ago
Reply to  Dave

Your punch apparently needs to be taken intravenously, comrade…

Bill on the Hill
10 days ago
Reply to  Patriot Bill

Great comment Patriot Bill…
Bill… :~)

Hdrydr
12 days ago

At this point, it doesn’t matter. Too many God damned RINO’s in the bag of political feces.

Robert Zuccaro
11 days ago
Reply to  Hdrydr

I look up everyone on the internet. Found one that posted on FB lauding Planned Parenthood and one supporting Lyndon LaRouche. What they post is sometimes more revealing then what they say!

Amacer
12 days ago

I have serious doubts the Republicans will take any significant seats in the House and Senate. Why? Because the 2020 presidential election was stolen without any accountability or punishment. Does anyone think the Democrats won’t cheat to the max in all future elections?

Mimi
11 days ago
Reply to  Amacer

I agree. As far as I can see no one has done anything to prevent cheating in future elections.

anna hubert
12 days ago

winner takes it all providing there is no extra ace in the sleeve and pack is fresh

Marc Ziegler
12 days ago

Yes, and the White House!!! Period!!!

ops
12 days ago

Written by Josiah Gilbert Holland and read before the Senate by Chaplain Peter Marshall
“God, give us men! A time like this demands
Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands;
Men whom the lust of office does not kill;
Men whom the spoil of office cannot buy;
Men who possess opinions and a will;
Men who have honor; men who will not lie;
Men who can stand alone before a demagogue and damn
His Treacherous flatteries without winking!
Tall men, sun – crowned, who live above the fog
In public duty and in private thinking.”

Old Papa
11 days ago
Reply to  ops

Agreed. Sadly only about 12 to 15 could match this reading. That includes the House and the Senate.

Sandi
12 days ago

God willing

Barbi
12 days ago

… best spokesman for President Trump is, President Biden. The more Biden insults him, the higher Trump goes in the polls! Shhh. Don’t tell anyone –

Dwayne
13 days ago

Please Remember “DO NOT PUT THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE” We Still have a long way to go and it won’t matter at all if The RINOS Take Congress. They are just as bad as the Democrats at least Democrats Tell you They Want to Destroy America. So Please America First People Only. At Least That’s My Opinion.

Gary
12 days ago
Reply to  Dwayne

I have not seen Republicans fighting for the American people, they seem to be sitting back as Dems programs fail. Republicans need to be out front with what their plans are if taking Congress. Seems as though being elected is more important than representing the American people.

Walt
11 days ago
Reply to  Gary

Amen guys…..not a dime’s worth of difference between democrat and Republican

mark
12 days ago
Reply to  Dwayne

Amen Dwayne, and I would bet if you were to follow the dark money the Republican RINOS are just as culpable as the Communist party – there is no more Dems, people just don’t want to call it as it really is. President Sanders got his wish

Hdrydr
12 days ago
Reply to  mark

president O!bozo got his wish. There, fixed it for ya. Sanders is a far left puppet and was only taken seriously by about 10% of the democrap communists. Hardly a shaker or mover…

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