The Democrat Turnout Operation Is Going Broke

Many political prognosticators insist that the Democrats are very likely to retake one or both houses of Congress in the upcoming midterms. But a serious funding shortfall in their vaunted turnout operation this year calls into question those sweeping predictions.

The narrative that Democrats are on their way to large majorities is primarily based on public polls, despite their consistent history of underestimating Republican performance, and the historical trend of the president’s party performing poorly in the midterms.

But these factors could very well be neutralized if the Democrats can’t rely on their voter turnout machine to make the difference in close elections. And, according to a PBS News report, Democrat strategists are increasingly alarmed by anemic funding for their get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation: “They are worried that many grassroots groups will not be able to mount effective registration and get-out-the-vote efforts.”

It is important to remember that the Democrat ground game is not manned by altruistic volunteers. The “activists” involved in their voter turnout operations expect to be paid. Moreover, according to the report, major Democrat donors and philanthropic groups have dramatically decreased their contributions since their 2024 presidential disaster.

America Votes, which has long coordinated the registration and GOTV efforts of more than 400 left-leaning activist groups—including the NAACP, Planned Parenthood, and the League of Conservation Voters, as well as the AFL-CIO and SEIU labor unions—has confirmed that its funding has fallen well below its 2022 midterm baseline. It’s probable that the precipitous decline of the party’s brand, combined with a growing number of disgruntled donors, is the cause of the cash shortfall.

Whatever the reason, the following suggests very real panic:

“A July memo circulated among major Democratic fundraisers warned that ‘the organizations that registered and persuaded millions of voters to participate in the 2018 and 2022 midterms are drastically underfunded. They have raised nearly 40% less than they had at this point in those cycles.’”

The impact on the ground caused by these financial shortages will be profound. Field teams will be drastically reduced. Consequently, operations aimed at low-propensity voters—including younger and minority voters—will be fewer in number and more sparsely manned than in the last two midterms. Democrat strategists are right to fear that, without their usually strong field operations, their final turnout numbers will be depressed. This will prevent Democrats from fully capitalizing on their favorable position in generic congressional ballot polling.

The damage caused by the lack of funding won’t be limited to the Democrat ground game. The shortfall in cash will also have a seriously negative effect on their ability to mount successful advertising campaigns.

This will be particularly problematic for the Democrats in the high-profile Senate contests in large states with expensive ad markets. Texas is a perfect example. As The Independent reports, “Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats by more than 8-to-1 through Election Day.” Nationally, the GOP is also outpacing the Democrats:

“According to ad-tracking data from AdImpact, Republicans are scheduled to spend $682 million on advertising from Monday through Election Day across all House and Senate races nationwide. By contrast, Democrats have reserved $491 million, giving the GOP a clear financial advantage in key battlegrounds.”

In other words, the Republicans have already committed $191 million (39 percent) more to advertising in competitive congressional races than have the Democrats. Nor will the Washington-based Democrat Party committees be able to help make up the difference.

As AMAC Newsline reported early last month, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) was for all intents and purposes broke, while the Republican National Committee (RNC) had $128 million in cash on hand. Since then, the Republican cash advantage has increased.

As the New York Times reports, “The Republican National Committee entered this month with about $126 million on hand. The Democratic National Committee, which has faced internal chaos and struggled badly to raise money, was $750,000 in debt.”

This Republican advantage is augmented by $416 million in cash on hand in President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA, Inc. According to the Times, no Democrat super PAC has close to that much cash. Consequently, the GOP will outspend the Democrats in all but one of the competitive Senate races.

“[In] eight of the top nine Senate races, Republicans have an advantage over Democrats on advertising spending, according to AdImpact, with a gap as big as roughly $30 million in Ohio. That gap is expected to grow by tens of millions of dollars now that the crypto industry is spending for the Republican candidate there, too.”

NewsNation additionally reports, “In nine of the most competitive Senate races, the GOP has allocated $127 million more for ad spending than Democrats.” This much Republican spending combined with an underfunded Democrat voter turnout effort is raising hopes that the GOP can defy midterm history. Here’s what The Hill had to say:

“Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters said Wednesday he expects his party to hold on to its majorities in both chambers of Congress during November’s midterms, predicting the GOP will claim 220 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate.”

Democrats and their corporate media mouthpieces dismissed this as whistling past the graveyard, but Karl Rove asks in the Wall Street Journal, “What if much of what we think we know about the midterms is wrong?” He points out that, in addition to their huge cash advantage, “Republicans have juicy targets in opponents who are Democratic Socialists of America members or fellow travelers. The DSA platform is a collection of dangerous, obnoxious and crazy ideas.” He added that Republicans have a record of successes to campaign on.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are banking on a tsunami of Trump Derangement Syndrome to drown the Republicans. Recent polls have shown that the vast majority of Democrat-leaning voters are motivated by their animus toward President Trump.

But these people tend to be low-propensity voters. Many will not cast ballots in the absence of a serious Democrat ground game—and that costs a lot of money that Democrats don’t have because their big donors have shut off the money spigot. If the Republicans use their cash advantage on a robust GOTV operation in addition to their ads, they may well defy history—again.