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Donald Trump’s Unusually Long Coattails

Posted on Friday, November 15, 2024
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by Andrew Shirley
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52 Comments
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Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore | Flickr

In politics, the “coattails effect” refers to the influence a popular candidate at the top of a ticket has on boosting the electoral success of other candidates from their party in down-ballot races. In 2024, Republican down-ballot candidates throughout the country enjoyed some unusually long coattails from President-elect Donald Trump.

Until the late 19th century, voting in the United States was conducted using ballots which allowed voters to mark off a party box at the top rather than making a selection for each individual race. This encouraged straight-ticket voting for one party or the other and meant that the incoming president usually enjoyed sizable majorities in the House and Senate.

With the advent of modern voting machines, presidential coattails became less frequent and had a smaller impact on governing majorities.

Since World War II, there have been arguably only five elections that classify as true “coattails” elections: Harry Truman in 1948, Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and Barack Obama in 2008. While pundits and historians continue to debate what exactly qualifies a presidential candidate as having “long coattails,” each of these contests was characterized by a popular presidential candidate who ran ahead of House and Senate candidates from his party and either flipped control of Congress or bolstered his party’s majorities.

In 1980, for instance, Republican Ronald Reagan won an overwhelming landslide victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College against Jimmy Carter. His popularity led the GOP to flip an astonishing 12 Democrat Senate seats and win control of the chamber for the first time since 1955.

On the other hand, in 1988, Republican George H.W. Bush won the White House, but Democrats expanded their majorities in the House and Senate. Bush’s coattails were nonexistent.

Donald Trump’s sweeping 2024 victory has a strong argument to be enshrined as the sixth true coattail election. Although results are still being tabulated, Trump appears very likely to have garnered more votes nationwide than Republican House and Senate candidates. GOP candidates who closely aligned themselves with Trump also tended to perform better, while those who tried to distance themselves from Trump tended to perform worse. In the four Senate seats that Republicans flipped, the GOP nominees all leaned heavily into Trump’s America First agenda.

Even Democrats attempted to cash in on Trump’s coattails. As Axios reported, in the waning days of the race, Democrat Senate candidates Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey (PA), Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH), and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) all ran ads touting their history of working with Trump to pass “America-First” legislation. But it was too little too late, and only Baldwin and Slotkin won their races.

One of the most remarkable things about Trump’s victory this year was how broad it was. It’s not just that Trump won an Electoral College landslide and became the first Republican nominee since 2004 to win the popular vote. Trump gained ground in red, purple, and blue states alike. He swept the seven swing states, but he also improved significantly on his 2020 and 2016 performances in states like New Jersey and California.

In fact, Kamala Harris failed to outperform Biden’s 2020 results in a single state this year. Moreover, Trump did better than he did four years ago in 90 percent of counties nationwide – an accomplishment that speaks to the depth of his appeal to voters.

As a result, Republicans kept control of the House and won control of the Senate, flipping four seats from Democrats in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The GOP also made gains in state legislative races, including winning back control of the Michigan House of Representatives after Democrats claimed a governing trifecta for the first time in 40 years in 2022.

Along with maintaining control of a majority of state legislatures, state-level Republicans also won supermajorities in Iowa and South Carolina, along with breaking up existing Democratic supermajorities in New York and Vermont. In Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott’s re-election means Democrats will no longer be able to override his veto pen without Republican support.

Even among the other coattails presidents, Trump’s victory stands apart. Of the five previous coattails elections, three were first-time presidents and two were elevated vice presidents serving in the aftermath of the assassination or death of a sitting president. Trump’s victory is the only second-term coattails election.

The scale of Trump’s victory is a stinging indictment of the establishment in both parties who have insisted for the better part of a decade that Trump would be nothing but a blip on the political radar. For the entirety of his first term and Joe Biden’s presidency, the left slandered and defamed Trump and even tried to throw him in prison – only to see his popularity increase and his political movement become even stronger.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.

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Reese
Reese
21 days ago

We’re still celebrating at our house and probably will right through the inauguration.

Roseann Carpenter
Roseann Carpenter
21 days ago

What coat tails! This newly elected and former president, has withstood insurmountable odds and has come victorious! What a legacy he will have. no other president in my history has been forced to fight, fight, fight for his leadership of our country.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
21 days ago

My Trump flags still flying at my house!

Rik!
Rik!
21 days ago

I greatly agree that if Republican candidates tied their campaigns to Donald Trump then they greatly benefited. But then again, one would have to be really stupid to back ANY Democrat especially with the high inflation the country experienced under Jackass Joe!

ARNOLD DEANDA
ARNOLD DEANDA
21 days ago

Changing the subject a little, the overwhelmed victory of the people to select the candidates of our choice, further proves that the 2020 presidential election was rigged. Pres. Trump is now our leader, and we must stand behind him straighten the mess that we the people have put in.

Marie Saqueton
Marie Saqueton
21 days ago

With all the money and full support of the biased mainstream media, we the people defeated them when we trashed their candidate Kamala and we showed them that Pres. Donald Trump, (whom they crucified) is our choice for President. We hope the legacy media has earned the lesson that their lies,& deceptions cannot control our minds and our values. MAGA FOREVER.

Joe
Joe
21 days ago

Democrats slandered, defamed, prosecuted….don’t forget that they also tried to assassinate him. I still pray that Almighty God continues to protect Donald Trump, his family, and his staff and appointees, because the evil demon-crats will continue their destroy-Trump agenda.

Larry
Larry
21 days ago

What is important to remember about this phenomena is the fact that with some of Trump’s cabinet picks, some Repubs are saying they won’t support some picks like Gaetz. They need to remember how they got there…..

Thinking
Thinking
21 days ago

Bidens presidency will be viewed as a campaign to eliminate the Republican Party for always. They are power hungry dictators to make America a communist country. And even now with a huge defeat they still keep plotting to overthrow Trump. If that doesn’t work they will start uprisings on college campuses which will spread to the inner cities. They have 20 million invaders at the ready to support them in that effort. All the statistics in the world is not going to deter O and P and S from taking Trump down. Their hatred for Trump and America is so great they are blinded with what Trump is trying to do. They have done everything they blame Trump for having done. They don’t get it. Their rage is greater than they care about America. Power at all cost. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead. Trump is giving the country back to the people like our founding fathers intended.

dan
dan
21 days ago

Joe Biden could make a lot of friends if he pardons Trump of the BS New York conviction.

anna hubert
anna hubert
21 days ago

Democrats have not one person with brains and vision and humility enough to lead them out of the mess they’ve created who would acknowledge their loss and Trump’s victory with grace.They will insist on finding the culprit when all they have to do is to look in the mirror People had enough and voted with their heads .Thank God for Trump, his vision and hisgrit. .

GenEarly
GenEarly
21 days ago

Baldwin Stole the Wisconsin Senate race !!!

Greasemaker~~
Greasemaker~~
21 days ago

It’s very nice to have Our country back!!

Myrna
Myrna
21 days ago

I think the only reason Harris was substituted for Biden was a hope that the forecast that Biden was the only candidate Trump could beat was true. False

KEN KING
KEN KING
21 days ago

GOD BLESS YOU ALL ???? AND KEEP THE FAITH IN YOUR PRAYERS FOR THE (3) MEN OF WHOM I THINK WILL FIX THIS DISTASTEFUL LEADERSHIP THAT HAS BEEN DESTROYING AMERICA . DONALD TRUMP , J.D.VANCE , AND ELON . WILL BE THE ANSWER TO THE SAVEING OF AMERICA ???????? ????

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
21 days ago

Rerun Reagen X2

PapaYEC
PapaYEC
21 days ago

Yeah, Slotkin didn’t win. Democrats steal elections; they don’t win them.
IMO

Fran
Fran
21 days ago

FINALLY….Comman Sense is winning……….YES !!!!

stella
stella
19 days ago

I haven’t stopped grinning since TRUMP won . Each cabinet pick brings more joy . The Dem’s will not go quietly tho , old Joe is trying to escalate the wars , so Trump can’t fix . They are trying to sabotage all the cabinet picks also . When they squeal , you know they have something to fear . GO , GO , GO .. Free Jan. 6 prisoners of war . ALL Patriots in my book . Last but not least cut the head off the snake & get NANCY PELOSI for all the EVIL warfare she has evoked .

Emily Watson
Emily Watson
21 days ago

312-226 Electoral College votes is not a landslide.

President Joe Biden, son Hunter Biden and sister Valerie Biden walk across the South Lawn of The White House on July 28, 2024 in Washington, DC. President Biden is returning from a weekend trip to Camp David. (Photo by Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images)
President-elect Donald Trump shakes hands with Dana White during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on November 16, 2024 in New York City.
Textured red flannel shirts hanging on clothes rack in thrift shop

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