U.S. Politics Takes a Turn

The summer months and early autumn of the year before a national midterm election usually provide relatively few notable news items. Not all incumbents have decided or announced their intentions to run again or retire, and not all challengers have declared their candidacies. Behind the scenes, of course, there is much activity, as private polls are taken, funds are being raised, and strategies are being devised.

This political environment appeared to recur this year, as the new term of President Donald Trump was completing its first nine months. Notable over the summer had been the President’s relatively high approval rating after an historic number of executive orders and other actions by the Republican-controlled Congress in the winter and spring — which had astonishingly erased most of what the preceding Biden administration had put in place, as well as a number of reforms of many long-standing policies.

At the same time, Democrats seemed mired in their trauma from losing the 2024 election, and the party became increasingly divided between its liberal base and its urban activist radicals. These developments seemed to be fueling a political trend toward Republicans, as evidenced by recent large net GOP registration gains, a large fundraising advantage for the national Republican Party apparatus, and the movement of many traditional Democrats, including blacks, Hispanics, and union members, to the Republican side.

This seemingly relentless but quiet drift was continuing, but it was always going to face a key test in November 2026. The midterm elections would either confirm the trend or instead reverse it as a response to President Trump and the record of his administration.

All of this we thought we knew. But then the tragic murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk suddenly upended the quiet calm of the summer and perhaps also increased the velocity of the GOP’s momentum.

There is perhaps no exact measure of when a political trend becomes a full-throated political realignment. Only more time will reveal whether or not the Kirk murder was the catalyst of a realignment, but there can be little doubt of the impact of this event on politics even now.

I had previously written that the first midterm of a new administration had historically favored the opposition party because the voters of the party in power usually were no longer so highly motivated to vote as they had been in the previous presidential election, while opposition voters were usually more motivated.

But I also had written that the 2026 cycle might be different because of the emergence of radical neo-socialist mayoral candidates in at least two important off-year elections this November in New York City and Minneapolis. If one or both of them are elected this year, it could motivate more conservative and moderate voters to show up at the polls next year and thus work against the historical trend.

Prior to the tragic shooting in Utah, many liberals and even many older conservatives were largely unaware of Charlie Kirk. Young persons, especially young conservative men, however, had become very aware of him through his organization, Turning Point USA, which conducts conservative outreach to high school and college students.

Thanks to Turning Point’s successful use of social media and campus events, GOP political candidates, strategists, and activists had become aware of Kirk’s and Turning Point’s political impact as well. His effect on the 2024 election was very significant, as President Trump, Vice President Vance, and virtually all the leading figures in the Trump administration have proclaimed, both before his death and at his very public funeral held in Arizona. It is no doubt in large part thanks to Kirk that President Trump gained 10 points with young voters from 2020 to 2024.

If the figure of 16,000 requests for new Turning Point chapters is accurate, the short term social and political response to his murder is astonishing and enormous. The replacement of Charlie Kirk with his wife as CEO also promises a certain continuity and possible increased appeal to young women as well.

The question is whether or not the emotions and passion of the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s death can endure into next year and beyond. If it does, the 2026 midterm elections could rather profoundly reverse the historical pattern.

A “Win This One For Charlie” sentiment next year could be very powerful. Or, as sometimes happens, public memory might fade, and without Charlie Kirk in charge, Turning Point could fail to make as much difference as it previously did. It will be up to those activists charged with carrying on his legacy to determine which outcome ultimately comes to pass.

A very important part of Charlie Kirk, Turning Point, and its future is not just political, but religious and social as well. That key aspect, so clearly evident in the elaborate funeral in Arizona, does seem likely to continue to grow as a form of revival, but that aspect can also be seen as something distinct from the purely political.

In any case, however, an extraordinary confluence of events the past few weeks and months seems to have caused the recent political trends to take a sharper turn toward a new voter realignment.

Next November, we will learn if this is what has actually happened.

Barry Casselman is an AMAC Newsline contributor.