2027 Social Security COLA Tracker

Where the 2027 COLA Stands

The COLA compares the average CPI-W — the Bureau of Labor Statistics' inflation index for urban wage earners and clerical workers — for July, August and September 2026 with the same three months of 2025. July and August are published. September arrives with the October 14, 2026 CPI release.

If September's index simply matched August's, the COLA would round to 3.4%. A large enough rise in September pushes it higher — the next table shows how much. The Senior Citizens League's latest projection is 3.5%, and the AMAC Foundation's Gerry Hafer walks through the same range in 2027 COLA Watch.

CPI-W, not seasonally adjusted (BLS series CWUR0000SA0). SSA rounds the quarterly average to three decimals and the COLA to the nearest tenth of a percent.

What September Has to Show

Because July and August are fixed, each possible COLA corresponds to a minimum September index. Here is the September CPI-W needed for each outcome, compared with August's 328.481.

Computed with SSA’s formula from the published July and August 2026 values and the 2025 third-quarter average of 317.265.

What It Means for Your Check

A COLA raises your benefit by the same percentage whatever its size. Using SSA's July 2026 averages, here is the monthly increase at each likely COLA. For your own amount, multiply your current benefit — before Medicare is deducted — by the COLA. Ask Rusty explains which figure the increase is based on.

Averages from SSA’s Monthly Statistical Snapshot. Actual payments are rounded by SSA and are reduced by any Medicare premiums or withholding deducted from your check.

Medicare Part B Takes a Bite

If Medicare premiums come out of your Social Security, the increase you see in January is the COLA minus any rise in the Part B premium. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects about $209.50 for 2027 — roughly $6.60 more — but that is a projection; CMS announces the official 2027 premium later in the fall.

A rule known as "hold harmless" keeps most people’s net Social Security payment from going down when the Part B increase is larger than their COLA. It does not apply to everyone — for example, people who pay the higher income-related premium (IRMAA). See how the Part B premium relates to your benefit and what IRMAA is.

Choosing a Medicare plan for 2027? Open enrollment runs October 15 through December 7 — see the 2026 open enrollment checklist.

How the COLA Is Calculated

The Social Security Act sets the formula. SSA averages the CPI-W for July, August and September and compares it with the same quarter of the last year a COLA took effect. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, is the COLA. If prices didn't rise, there is no COLA — benefits are never cut by the formula. That happened for checks paid in 2010, 2011 and 2016.

For last year's adjustment, the 2025 third-quarter average of 317.265 was 2.8% above 2024's 308.729 — a 2.8% COLA, paid starting January 2026. That same 317.265 is the base the 2027 COLA is measured against.

The increase applies to December benefits, which are paid in January. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) generally rises by the same percentage starting with January payments. Want to know how COLAs figure into your own claiming plan? The full retirement age calculator is a good place to start, and the AMAC Foundation’s free Social Security advisors can answer questions about your record.

Recent COLAs

Since 2000 the COLA has averaged 2.6%. Recent adjustments have ranged from nothing to 8.7% — the largest in four decades, paid in 2023. Critics argue the CPI-W understates what older Americans spend on health care; read whether the COLA is guaranteed and why some people don't see a COLA.

SSA labels each COLA by the December it takes effect; it first shows up in the January check.