AMAC Exclusive – By Seamus Brennan
Although conservatives are rightly celebratory in the wake of Republicans’ new House majority, the GOP’s failure to recapture the Senate has made the weeks following Election Day unexpectedly bittersweet after lofty predictions of a “red wave.” But with a highly favorable Senate map in 2024, the right conditions could put Republicans in a position to pick up as many as 11 seats in the upper chamber.
Come November 2024, Democrats will be forced to defend a whopping 23 incumbent seats—nearly half of their Senate caucus—including a number of vulnerable Democrats in swing states and traditional Republican strongholds.
Most notably, the GOP will have the chance to knock out incumbent Democrats Jon Tester from Montana, Joe Manchin from West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown from Ohio – all states where other Republican statewide candidates have won handily in recent years. Donald Trump easily carried each state in 2020, beating Joe Biden by an eight percent margin in Ohio, 16.4 percent margin in Montana, and a staggering 38.9 percent margin in West Virginia.
Each endangered incumbent Democrat has also voted largely in lockstep with the historically unpopular Biden agenda—a pattern that is almost certain to become more noticeable to voters as 2024 draws closer. And in an environment in which Biden continues to face shockingly low approval ratings and the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of recession, conservatives have every reason to be confident in these impending red state showdowns.
But Republicans’ promising 2024 prospects extend well beyond these conservative enclaves. Also up for reelection next cycle is Arizona incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Tim Kaine of Virginia, and in more of a long-shot chance for a GOP Senate pickup, Maine’s Independent Senator Angus King (who caucuses with the Democratic Party and has not yet committed to seeking another term in office). Given that Republicans came within striking distance of picking up Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (and retained a competitive seat in Wisconsin), the competitive nature of this year’s New Mexico gubernatorial race, and Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory to win the Virginia governor’s mansion in 2021, the GOP should feel bullish on their chances in many of these races.
Furthermore, Utah’s Republican Senator Mitt Romney—who remains detested by much of the GOP voting base and routinely votes against the interests of his party and his voters—is up for reelection in 2024 and is almost certain to face a brutal primary challenge. In West Virginia, Republican Congressman Alex Mooney has already declared his candidacy against Manchin, and other West Virginia Republicans are sure to follow suit. After the Georgia Senate runoff and the onset of the new year, more and more candidates are expected to announce their candidacies, bringing the 2024 campaign season into full swing and putting a large number of incumbent Democrats on the defensive.
Though it of course remains unlikely that Republicans will win every single one of the 11 in-play Senate seats and achieve a filibuster-proof 60-seat Senate majority, the fact remains that 2024 presents Republicans with their greatest chance in years to win a decisive Senate majority that—along with a Republican House and reliably conservative president—could at long last allow the party to enact some of its key policy goals and affect lasting and decisive change on the federal level.
Needless to say, the party has its work cut out for it before GOP leaders and operatives can get too confident about their 2024 prospects. This year’s elections showed conservatives that, until they can get serious about finding ways to combat the left’s use of mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and ballot harvesting to rig elections in their favor, they will continue to struggle in key races.
But if Republicans play their cards right and use the next two years to ensure they are competing on a level playing field with the left – and are selecting strong candidates – November 5, 2024 could prove to be a decisive day for the American conservative movement.
Whether the GOP machine chooses to seize the moment and make the most of this key once-in-a-generation opportunity, however, remains to be seen.
Somehow the selection of a picture of Mitt Romney to go along with this article kind of signifies the type of candidates the Republican Party establishment really wants on the ballot for 2024. A bunch of Democrat-lite losers, who will march across the aisle at every opportunity to aid the Democrats in passing more and more of their regressive agenda into law. In other words RINOs, that will back Mitch McConnell as leader. I assume Mitch McConnell will be willing to spend some of his PAC money to get RINOs elected then. Just like he did with Murkowski in Alaska and other RINOs this year. All while saying “We’ll do better next time”, if you just keep re-electing the same type of losers over and over again.
I do notice the conspicuous lack of any mention of our new mass mail-in voting standard and the days or weeks delay in counting ballots until a Democrat miraculously wins as having any impact going forward. Yeah, keep ignoring that huge elephant in the room. That is really going to make it go away in 2024. Just like it did in 2022. So before the RNC and the GOP establishment machine in Congress starts revving up the “next big Red wave coming in 2024”, the Party’s leadership has to decide 1) Do they actually want to win? and 2) Is the GOP leadership going to be a bit honest with the public about the type of members it really wants in Congress? Meaning RINO types and NOT the constitutional conservatives they claim to desire.
2024 — LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You can’t fix the fraud of 2020 and 2022, it will have exponentially grown by 2024. GOP will NEVER control ANYTHING ever again, nor will there EVER be a Republican President ever again.
GOP better Unite:
Dump RINOs ALL
Get United
No DC Estd games
Fight fire with fire
Or Lose 2024
Just remember the 12 Republicans that vote in lockstep with McConnel and the democrats . Makes me sick to my stomach. These peoples need to vote with their voters which they do not.
And the 24 months of continuous and mostly inaccurate BS starts afresh.
If at first you don’t succeed try, try again. Except barring a miracle B*tch McConnell will be running the Senate and just look at how he screwed up the 2022 election I for one don’t hold out much hope for any better results in 2024, McConnell’s picks always side with the Demonrats, his picks always favor gun control, leftist Judges, if we keep the same team for 2024 election, they will screw it up. and we will have to wait another 2 years and we are running out of time to save America.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result!
I am losing faith in the Republicans, but I guess everyone else is happy. Are you?
The article starts off with a picture of one of the Biggest RINO’s of them all, a gift from Utah that wouldn’t even help Mike Lee, Romney get lost!
America is already lost. This last election shows the people want a communist America.
The Big Red Wave the repubs vowed was coming, actually, did under a different name. Its Communism.
Disappointed? More like furious. The blatant “in your face” fraud, ballot harvesting, etc. Committed by the corrupt politicians that was ‘protected’ by laws put in place by democrats has destroyed our faith in fair elections..
Conservatives, libertarians and many independents have been ill served by most of the Republicans who actually win elections. The problem is that the Republicans are afraid to campaign against the Democrats by declaring what they would do differently. This Republican fear is so ingrained that the best the Republican candidates can muster is how bad the Democrats are. What you won’t hear is any mention of what they would do if elected.
Psst! Hey Republicans, want to attract voters? If you do, give them a reason to show up at the polling places and vote for you
I am wary the Republican party can deliver in 2024. This past General Election was a test and the GOP didn’t deliver. Poor Candidate choices, too many rhinos in the party and a weak platforms.
Add former President Trump dividing the party (not him necessarily, but his supporters, I agreed with many of his ideas, but not his method).
One message, rid the party of the rhinos, back acceptable candidates
The GOP has a chance.
Ignore the media
I find it very distressing that all of the talking heads keep looking for and coming up with the same lame excuses for why the “Red Wave” fizzled, while completely ignoring the elephant in the room: Democrat voter registration and election fraud. The Democrat Party has been engaging in voter registration and election fraud since before the Civil War – yes that is correct and it is in the history books. They have honed it into a science and have become expert at doing so. After the enormous and multifaceted fraud that helped them steal the 2020 elections and get away with it, they have decided to not even try to hide what they are doing as the mainstream media lie and cover up for them. Multiple governorships, multiple Senatorial seats, and dozens of House seats were stolen on Election Day. Yet little to nothing is being done about any of it. If something is not done to correct this situation very soon, this nation is lost.
Our economy is not “teetering on the edge of recession”. By every definition (before this year) we are in a recession. For the writer to use that inaccurate phrase plays directly into the hands of the Orwellian left’s attempts to change definitions to suit their political ends.
I hae zero confidence in Mitch McConnell doing what is necessary to win anything. If it serves his self interests then he might support a candidate. If not he is likely to do what he did this past election and do everything he can to undermine candidates not of the UniParty.
Really upset with the Republican promises and party at this time. Where are the traditional values they espouse? 12 voted with the democrats for the erroneous named Respect for Marriage Act. And as far as that goes, every democrat and independent should be ashamed of themselves as well!
Republicans can not win unless they stick together and prove they are for the people. Too many rino’s and too many promises not completed. President Trump would do the republican party a favor if he threw his support behind DeSantos as he will never win the nomination. People are tired of his tirants and garbage.
The GOP has no idea as to who to choose as a candidate nor how to run a campaign. I told them what topics to absolutely avoid but these idiots made them their first topics. I told them to be prepared for absurd claims by the DNC to be released in the final two weeks up the were caught untruths. Be prepared by release the same absurd allegations BEFORE the DNC does. Cut Medicare, cut S.S. The GOP are simply morons.
Amazing that people still haven’t figured out, or refuse to accept, that harvest balloting and mail in voting is LEGAL in many States. Until this is rectified and the GOP begins by playing on this field they will continue to howl at the moon after every election defeat by claiming fraud and theft.
There are several issues facing the Republican Party, most of which can be put on a fast track to improve their situation by removing the old guard from positions of power. Two of these are Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy. Second they must take lessons from Newt Gingrich and develop their Contract with America and starting now, stop relying on criticizing Democrat policies without solutions.
Death to the rino party ????……..maga,maga,maga….Ross perrow all over again. I know we’ll lose to the democrats. But my conscience will be clean….
Let me give them a hint: They should have ALREADY started the 2024 campaign. Easy on release te SCARY flaws that the DNC is responsible for by telling each age, each nationality SPECIFICALLY how it will hurt them. It doesn’t matter whether the flaw is proved or not. What is released s based n TIME not context. The last ones are the most absurd. Do not give the DNC time to disprove it. Every day a NEW accusation. Have your candidates picked with the help of a trustworthy advertising firm. LEARN from Trump. This is how he did it. Get rid of the current criminals: Romney, McConnell, Thule, Blunt, Collins, etc. in the primaries.These people are tied up in hidden felonies but the DNC knows. START TODAY!
I disagree that Tester (MT) & Manchin (WV) have followed lockstep with Biden agenda. Appears to me that both fought against some of the agenda. What I cannot believe is how many in Democrat party support green agenda & war on fossil fuels. Biden helping Venezuela, instead of US producers is a black eye to this nation.
FOX news has a lot of gaffes this year: And here is another by Jesse Watters “Democrats did better than everyone thought because of the young/unmarried women & that they need to get control”. What a stupid slam against women voters & I doubt if you helped get any voters over to the side you support. Quit with dividing this nation & if you make women mad at you ….Adios Jesse & don’t let the door hit you…
This analysis was reasonable right up to this: ” This year’s elections showed conservatives that, until they can get serious about finding ways to combat the left’s use of mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and ballot harvesting to rig elections in their favor, they will continue to struggle in key races.”
Voting isn’t rigging.
There is an 800-pound toxic gorilla not mentioned in this otherwise interesting column.
Uh huh. Republicans will be LUCKY if they wind up with 52 seats.
This is delusional. GOP will gain 5 seats at best.
And I’d put it closer to 2-3 pickups. Being within “striking distance” in AZ, NV, PA, etc. means absolutely nothing. Polarization tends to keep things competitive.
I want real Republicans in Congress. There are 12 that sided with the demoncrats on the (Dis)respect for marriage act who should be run out of Washington. They have helped the demoncrat rulers to declare war on Christians.
This being said, I still know that God is in control and Jesus is still the King of kings. He will win but we must vote wisely.
If we dont come up with an answer to Democrat ballot harvesting – we will keep losing. They have figured out how to get 70% of their voters to vote but we are still stuck around 60%. Forget the media crap about single moms and Roe vs Wade – why on earth would you ever believe a word they say? Dem ballot harvesting is winning them elections and Republicans better figure it out.
After these past two elections I will only be voting for true Conservatives in the primaries. If they don’t move on to the general election, then I will either vote 3rd party or not at all. Enough of trying to reward the Uniparty. We may be stuck with dems, but at least I will vote with my conscious. And after 40 years of giving money to Republicans, no more. Let them prove their worth before they get any of mine.
as long as rinos like mittens romney, marble mouth mitch, etc the “republican party” is done! they may win bits and pieces here and there, they may be “allowed” to have a presidential win for a rino who is in bed with the communist party(some people will do anything for power and money-principles have no place in politics). but republicans will NEVER represent “the people” who actually believe in conservative principles. You know, like the ones our founders listed in the CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES! instead of taking over the country for their own personal gain all, lenin, stalin, mao, castro, chaves(now madero) xi, etc.
Today worrying yourself sick about liberals and conservatives is just as stupid as worrying yourself sick over the Whig Party in 1853.
Politics will be an entirely different thing as Whites come to REALIZE that they are a threatened minority. That is what is happening now.
Diversity is a code word for White Genocide.
If Biden’s approval numbers are “shockingly low” then what were Trump’s? Considering they were (and are) lower.
If Manchin, Tester and Brown run, they win.
An actual map in this article would have been great!
I think the author is being too optimistic. I could see 2-3 GOP pick up, but that’s it.
When you live in a echo chamber, its a wonder you cant believe you lost, get out a little visit the city, see that Americans don’t all think alike, if the GOP wants to win elections learn to be more tolerant and respectful of different races, sexual preferances, lifestyles. People don’t need morality police we need good public policy, and most definitely not authoritarianism, extremism, because Repugs are still in denial they want to blame their failings on non-existent fraud. The Silent majority spoke in 2022 and will continue to speak to yall get the message. Please nominate Donald Trump again so the silent majority can dash his hopes again!!
No worries, Democrats- Mitch McConnel will help you all he can.
The Republican Party does not use their power and are not united. The Republicans enjoy being the minority party. The Republicans when they controlled the legislature did not make changes to Obama-care. They chose not to take a leadership role to amend and change the health care system but instead squabbled among themselves. The Democrats vote in unison and by doing so are very powerful. I did not believe these mid-term elections would result in a red wave and I was proven correct. Mitch McConnell does not like the limelight. Mitt Romney votes like he is from the moon. I do not believe Mitt Romney would have been a successful President if he had defeated Obama. The Democrats easily control things since the media is solidly with them. Frankly, we need two new political parties which govern effectively.
Based on this last election, I see the Repubs losing seats in the House and Senate in 2024.
If the Repubs could not wipe the floor in Nov this year with the hand of four aces they held
they will never win. Biden handed the Repubs a gift and they dropped it.
Republicans are lazy , unimaginative campaigners with no plan .
United and until Republicans call out and correct Democrat electoral fraud, they will continue to come up just short every time.
If they do not engage and succeed in electoral cheating on a level matching or above the democrat party they wont win much of anything moving forward.
America, you have lost your country.
“Furthermore, Utah’s Republican Senator Mitt Romney—who remains detested by much of the GOP voting base and routinely votes against the interests of his party and his voters” Romney has an excellent record of supporting Republican policies. What he doesn’t support is some unqualified reality show, failed businessman, ex-President who doesn’t support Republican values is making a mockery of the GOP.
Paul Ogden is a communist dem, troll. MAGA….
Seems to me that our chances improve noticeably if we leave Trump behind but I guess time will tell whether that’s an accurate assessment of our current situation
You finally hit it in the third to last paragraph. We have to overcome the 3am emergency Democrat voters. But we must also overcome the RINO effect, which is running rampant in our party. Ferret Face McConnell needs to go. So does RINO McCarthy.
We shall see, it’s just such a huge swamp of worthless politicians and it includes a lot of Republicans , term limits would help somewhat…
We have to Take Back America to preserve its values and principles. Mitt Romney disappointed me and betrayed his values, in my opinion. He is not a strategic or dynamic leader and his judgement has been clouded by his petty envy and jealousy of Donald Trump. I voted for Mitt and he let me down. I hope he can repent and see the light. God did not tell him to vote for impeachment his vanity did and he needs to learn to listen the Holy Ghost not the other guy. I only care about the USA fulfilling its destiny to be a light into the world and to be a force for good. I am not someone who will follow any leader blindly. But I do know who can win the battle and selection of the right “generals” is critical for us to save America. I like this article because it is strategic and the right direction.