Now that President Donald Trump has capped off a remarkably productive six months in office by signing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law, the White House and congressional Republicans are turning their attention to next year’s midterms. November of 2026 may seem a long way off, but retaining control of Congress will require an enormous amount of planning, work, and fundraising—all of which must begin immediately.
As a rule, the President’s party almost always loses congressional seats in the midterms, and it isn’t difficult to envision the kind of antics the Democrats will engage in if they retake either house of Congress. There are, however, various factors at play in the current political environment that suggest the Republicans may well defy history.
First, the GOP continues to expand its already wide fundraising lead. Second, countless polls indicate that congressional Democrats are enduring their worst approval ratings in decades. Third, the electorate is clearly in the midst of a widespread rightward shift. Fourth, the Republicans are making electoral gains among constituency groups that have traditionally voted Democrat. Fifth and finally, the GOP has strong leadership and a clear vision for the future, while the Democrats have neither.
All of these factors are reflected to some extent in the ability of the two parties to build war chests for the coming battle. The GOP continues to increase its cash reserves while the Democrat coffers remain all but empty. The Republican National Committee (RNC) had $80.7 million in cash on hand according to FEC reports released on July 21. The Democratic National Committee (DNC), meanwhile, had only $15.2 million in cash on hand in the same filing. The Republicans are raising more money than the Democrats ($96.4 million during the first half of the year compared to $69.2 million) and stashing more of it away.
Not only is the RNC building a formidable war chest while the DNC dithers, voters view congressional Republicans more favorably than their Democrat counterparts. A widely circulated Quinnipiac University Poll released two weeks ago found voter approval of congressional Democrats at its lowest point since March of 2009: “Fewer than 2 in 10 voters (19 percent) approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 72 percent disapprove and 10 percent did not offer an opinion.”
Moreover, as Columbia University’s Stuart Gottlieb writes in Newsweek, “Resistance 2.0” won’t solve the problem:
“Democrats are understandably tempted to solve their current predicament in traditional fashion—confront Trump with a new ‘resistance,’ tweak their policies and messaging, hope the 2026 midterms go their way. But these are no longer traditional times. Fundamental shifts are occurring in the body politic that have left Democrats on the wrong side of the popular vote, congressional races, and the country’s shifting demographics. It’s time for a total re-do.”
For a sense of just how profound this rightward shift in the body politic has been, a New York Times analysis of the 2024 election produced this startling statistic: “More than 89 percent of counties in the United States shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election.” In terms of congressional districts, the news is even worse for Democrats. An analysis by The Downballot indicates that, from 2020 to 2024, Trump improved his performance in 416 out of 435 districts. That comes to more than 95 percent. Any Democrat strategist who isn’t frightened by that number should find a new line of work.
Even worse for the Democrats, the ongoing rightward shift has been driven by voters who once made up the core of the party’s traditional coalition. It’s not merely that they have, for all intents and purposes, lost the working class. Using the recent presidential election as an example, Michael Baharaeen at The Liberal Patriot writes, “The rightward shift nationally was propelled almost entirely by non-white voters.” This was by no means a one-off. Amie Parnes, reporting in The Hill on a recent poll conducted by Unite the Country, writes that “the Democratic Party’s credibility with voters has plummeted even further since the 2024 election.”
“Democrats are still feeling dejected and rudderless in the early months of the Trump presidency. An AP-NORC poll out in May revealed that only 35 percent of surveyed Democrats are optimistic about the party’s future, compared with 57 percent in July 2024. And there is an overwhelming sense that the party lacks strong leaders, the same poll showed. Democratic donors and bundlers have refused to cut checks for Democratic candidates, citing the party’s lack of enthusiasm and vision.”
This brings us to the intangible factor underlying every situation discussed above. Without the energetic leadership of President Trump, it’s unlikely the Republicans would enjoy their current fundraising advantage. Nor is it plausible that they would have pulled off the six-month winning streak that has driven down Democrat polling numbers.
Without Trump’s positive vision of America’s future, the ongoing rightward shift of the electorate would not have materialized, and the inroads Republicans have made in the traditional Democrat coalition would be unimaginable. Trump’s leadership, combined with his vision, is what animates the GOP.
Is the “Trump factor” enough to propel the “Grand Old Party” across the finish line in 2026 with its narrow congressional majorities intact? History suggests not. But the past has never been prologue for President Trump. When he entered his first presidential race, history was not on his side. Yet he defeated Hillary Clinton. When he announced his intention to run again, after four tempestuous years in the wilderness, historians reminded him that only one former president had ever been elected to a second nonconsecutive term. Yet he won again anyway.
With Trump’s leadership in the current political environment, even the Republicans can defy history.
David Catron is a Senior Editor at the American Spectator. His writing has also appeared in PJ Media, the American Thinker, the Providence Journal, the Catholic Exchange and a variety of other publications.
Stop calling Democrats Progressive, the correct definition is Communist. They have shown their true colors of who they are. Wake up, America, and open your eyes to what your party has become.
The “PROGRESSIVES” aren’t just extremely liberal they’re EXTREMELY MARXIST and should be openly addressed as such!!
Can we win Seats in the House and Senate in 2026? Or will the billionaires again buy an election like in 2020. Are the lies by the democrats strong enough to lure the voters back? Russiagate or Obama Gate as I like to call it, convincingly enough to the electorate that the democrats are a communist power grabbing destructive party? Will they use the courts to obstruct Trump till after the election. I wouldn’t put it passed them. Communism is rearing its ugly head in the DNC. Are the people seeing it for what it is? If a late night talk show host is allowed to disrespect our president those supporting this person better realize how free this country is. There is not one country in the world where you could do that and get away with it. Democrats think they are the rulers of this country and any opposition has to be snuffed out.
When Obama was elected I was afraid of just what he turned out to be. A destructive president that wanted to destroy this country and he almost succeeded.
While everyone is focusing on the midterms (rightfully so), too many are ignoring an even more important election; the PRIMARIES! We need to vet the candidates carefully BEFORE the primaries so we don’t end up with more McConnel’s (RINO) candidates that pollute our party. We need TRUE Conservative candidates that we can support, not just another suit with a R by their name.
The Democrats would have NO approval at all if people who STILL watch the MSM knew about all the bald-faced LYING the dems are doing. They usually lie about whatever they are doing to make people think that the conservatives are actually doing stuff, but the amount of democrats that now look straight into the camera and flat out lie is simply astonishing!!! The Republican party needs to start running ads with that money they are raising pointing out the lies so that more people get absolutely fed up with the liberals and switch parties NOW. The Republicans have historically been WAY TOO NICE and then they are surprised they lose. The TRUTH needs to be told to people right NOW. Allowing all of those seniors to spend an entire summer worrying about cuts to social security when that was NEVER part of any legislation was unforgiveable! AARP should be very ashamed for not correcting their lies. They could have done it but chose not to.
Every Republican needs to be working on winning Congressional seats, gubernatorial seats and mayoral seats in ALL cities….especially the blue ones. If the RNC doesn’t fight for their candidates, we will lose not only our power to keep cleaning up after the Biden regime, but allow blue states to keep getting “bluer”.
There is one major difference between President Trump and other politicians. Trump gets things done. This is one point I believe can not be stressed enough. The voters are not impressed by speeches. We want action. We want legislators with plans that they prove by working those plans. The voters want concrete results.
I sure hope you guys are right …sadly, the Republicans have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
There’s also the lovely fact that because conservatives are fleeing blue states, red states are able to redistrict the political map based on the new population counts. That means that congressional seats are being taken away from California, eg, and being given to Texas and Florida. Some pundits are saying that the Republicans have automatically gained 12 new seats in the House of Representatives because a solid red district like my District 17 in Minnesota is very unlikely to vote in a Democrat.
With the most successful and incredible America-First six months in history, the only people that will still vote Democrat are the truly ignorantly arrogant, the freebe-loving lazy, and the mentally ill/Trump Derangement Syndrome socialist idiots.
Today’s Democrat party’s platform is simple. Their plans and goals for America and her people, communities, streets and neighborhoods are and will continue to be Supporting and defending the following:
Criminals; Drug dealers; Open borders; High crime; High taxes; Homelessness; the molestation, the chemical castration and mutilation of children; Human trafficking; Dangerous filthy needle-strewn streets with piles and streams of human waste; Drug-infested streets and neighborhoods; And sick and demented perverts playing in female sports.
And that is only a fraction of the sick, twisted and insane ideology and plans the Left-wing radically progressive, America-hating, Socialist/Commie Democrat party of today wants to inflict on We the People if these degenerates ever get back in power.
This is extremely optimistic. I hope the writer’s optimism is well-placed.
Mid-term bumper sticker: Vote Democrat; Sign your own death warrant…
Missing from this article is a description of the “messaging” intended to “target” that unimpressed “one hundred milliion” potential voters who refused to participate in the last election (accordng to some wag now forgotten). If true, that demographic should be identified and focused upon to encourage them to return to the polls in the upcoming contests.
The “…first…” consideration is always about fund-raising. More importantly, intelligent consideration of ongoing circumstances and constructive messaging should be of primary interest to campaigners and their staffs.
With the investigative work (and ensuing disclosures) that Tulsi Gabbard as DNI has uncovered and released–and with the prosecutions of many of the deep-state puppets coming up, the Communist (aka Democrat) party may suffer even more humiliation and setbacks. The wheels of justice may turn slow sometimes, but they keep grinding.
The real reason why so many has left the Demoncrat party is the unending LIES and deceptions spit out by their elected officials that blatantly insults the intelligence of all of us. Add to that the disgusting lies of their complicit media, you now have a party leading to its extinction like the WHIG party of the past. The awakening of the voters to the truth is our ability to research the internet for unbiased news. AMAC is a great source for the truth. May God continue blessing us with wisdom. Amen.
The dems focus is 100% on getting the payroll and 0% on doing their jobs. Their strategy for cinching the interview is to kill all the other applicants in the waiting room.
Having read American History, books on Free Enterprise, and on the history of failed Marxist countries from age 12 to age 85, I can see one of the highest priorities for America to return to the land of liberty, integrity, and virtue. That is – a VAST change in the school curriculums of public and private schools and universities. I was schooled in the 1950s when American History contained zero political propaganda. And I had an excellent teacher to go with it. Today in 2025, I look at my 2025 high school curriculum and I cannot find History listed as a primary subject. Instead I had to dig down to find it listed under “Social Studies”!!! American History and the History of Western Civilization should be presented to the (K-12) students several times over their 12 years of study. Also receive rigorous instruction on the principles of Free Enterprise and how it differs from failed Marxist economies. It must be detailed and rigorous enough to produce graduating high schoolers as discerning voters able to distinguish politicians speaking truth vs those speaking falsehoods. With a thorough knowledge of Marxist beliefs and principles vs those of our Constitutional Republic, voters will be far less likely to fall for the dogma of Marxist idealogues. Today, political campaigns are all about money!@#$!
Let us pull back federal authority to its authority limits and vote on the basis of preserving our liberty for our grandchildren.
Attention must be paid to the fact that most people don’t vote in the midterms. The pattern of losing the majority in the midterm is because we skip them. We need every Republican voter to vote! Precinct delegates need to get the word out to their public on the candidates stressing how important it is to continue the President’s abilities to implement the changes we voted him in to do.
I like AMAC and many of the contributing authors, BUT I would really like for everyone on the right to stop identifying the problems of the Democrats and suggesting things they can do to improve. Democrats need to continue to do what they are doing, double down, and go even further to the left.
I appreciate the opportunity to totally support the RNC with my votes and prayers. I will turn 80 in September and am on a fixed income trying to make my monthly income catch up with the monthly bills. I am a Viet Nam vet, X-police officer, a Christian and conservative and I say so with every opportunity I can vote. I vote Republican whether I like the individual or not and expect them to vote with the Republican constituency on every vote. However, the only polls I have seen are from WinRed and most of thee once’s I have received are RUDE and DEMEANING!! I don’t have the money to put with the millions of dollars that it takes to run the massive campaigns but I VOTE and the polls from WinRed would turn to away from the Republican Party if I were not a diehard Republican. Please do something to allow those like to be heard, Please!! PS: I am already a member of AMAC and I appreciate your support for conservative values!!!
If every voter had to wear a message on their clothing informing others of their voting choice I doubt the dems/commies would get many votes.At least from folks who have a grain of sense in their skulls.I
can you stop them from cheating? then you could win it also would help to grow a pair
We;ve won the midterms now since Dems unorganized etc day 1 since he won Term 2
I don’t think that the RNC or the DNC is a big factor here. It’s the TRUMP factor. He brought everyone together. That’s what counts.
We absolutely can not let the Democrats back in. It would not be good for America at all. We need to back our President the best we can. MAGA !
Seems like there has been a marked shift in the way people get their news and how they interact. So the old tendency to change parties at the midterm may also be old data. There is no evidence that anyone would actually change their vote based on what is happening now. Can the Dem popularity get any lower? All of the good news is coming from Republicans and the Dems seem to be falling apart and alienating more people every day with their extreme rhetoric and ridiculous far left positions. We should not take Dems possible cheating or pulling dirty tricks off the radar but neither to we have to keep repeating midterm shifts as inevitable- this is a different time. We need to work hard to emphasize Trump’s successes and not let people say lies. Also be patient. It’s only been 6 months and legal battles require careful preparation to be successful.
Love this and AMAC!
you’re definitely making a difference , for good, in many areas. These emails are targeted and strategic – keep ‘em coming, please!
Republicans can easily keep both the house and senate IF people go vote. It’s very sad that midterm elections have pathetic voter turnout. People can’t be bothered to take 10 minutes out of their day to stop by a polling place and cast their very important vote. It’s not like back when there was only one day to vote and you had to stand in line. Now that polls are open two to three weeks for early voting there should be absolutely no excuse not to vote. We MUST retain and hopefully gain seats in both the house and the senate.
After all of the satanic corruption by the democrat regime 12 years out of the last 16 years, especially the corruption of our tax dollars to the illegals and foreigners and perversion and kickbacks for democrat campaigns and their pockets, why would anyone be “STUPID” enough to vote for the treasonic traitor criminals. Oh, and allowing millions of illegal criminals to overwhlem our country and let them draw our social security and free phones, loaded E T cards, free housing, etc…. on top of everything else
God First.
HELP MAKE AMERICA A PISSHOLE VOTE DEMORAT
We need to vote out “ALL” democrats even on the local level in the midterm and every election. Get rid of as many as we can. Hopely all of them That would be a blessing and a miracle.
I disagree that Dems lack enthusiasm and vision. They have envisioned dividing and destroying America as we know it and are enthusiastic enough to lie, cheat, and burn it to the ground to get what they want. That’s why they’re a failed political party.
Why is AMAC printing something to HELP the Communists? This and other similar articles that tell them WHAT THEY need to change or cover up to win seems to be giving aid to the enemy.
How do you appeal to the vast number of voters who do not employ logic or rationality to their voting choices? That is the mess we have to work through. Example, AOC and Mamdani have hugh followings, but simply put they are all hollow voters–no substance behind the choice. Sure, AOC is “cute” but her positions are deadly to the republic. Mamdani is worse. and every dem is a copy of them. We are going to have to put on our thinking caps–the old way of campaigning and the old approach is going to be disasterous.
The last “Progressives” we read about are our Founding Fathers. They gave us a new nation having entirely new ideas on government. They were true progressives. Instead of deriving our individual rights from a king or Parliament, American government starts with our Judeo-Christian God creating life including “natural rights” of Life, Liberty, and Property. So our rights are not delegated to us by government. Instead we possess these rights before we even set up a government. Subsequently, we delegated limited powers to the government in order to protect all our “natural rights”. Thus the Constitution does not grant us rights. The 2nd Amendment does not give me a right to Keep & Bear Arms because I already have that right given by my Creator God. Amen!
Just remember….this is the GOP. There are still enough RINOs to keep their motto of We snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
My senator, Tuberville, is running for governor and please pray for another great senator to replace him. I am in the beautiful state of Alabama.
I’m new. I hope this site doesn’t become just a request for money. I joined to mix with others who are like minded.
The author used the term “ONE-OFF”.(IN THE 9th PARAGRAPH) That started out as “ONE-OF” I attributed the substituting OFF for OF to the ignorant news media who started that many years ago. Most of the NEWS readers are pretty stupid. Every time you hear or read “ONE-OFF substitute “ONE-OF” and see if it doesn’t make MORE SENSE.
We need to take a page from the Democrat playbook. Weaponizing intelligence community and the department of Justice. We can take them out just like they did to Trump or tried to. Make no mistake they will get away with it
The way to win is to have candidates that will do the job to keep America great and safe. The ones that will do what they say they will do. Not put men or boys in women’s or girls sport or restrooms. Not to make you ashamed of what ever race you are. We are all part of the human race and that is all that matters.
I wondering if any Democrats even recognize their party anymore. Is it the same as it used to be even 30 years ago? I heard some say that their granddaddy was a Dem and their daddy was a Dem, so their a Dem. I believe that the Democrat party has been hijacked and that they are not the same. As for me, I vote what is best for America and her people. I’m wondering, is your allegiance to a party that has been overtaken, or to your Country, your children, your great-grandchildren, and your future generations? Can’t you see it?
Pelosi Schumer Maxi Waters Hobbs Galvin nuisance along with many more Democrats have destroyed the Democrat Party
Sorry, I think you are dreaming. Trump is suppose to get us out of war not continue wars in the middle east, and Ukraine. We need to see some people brought to justice. We are getting the same old tired Republican RINOs running for Congress. People running for Congress need to embrace medical freedom MAHA), food freedom, political freedom, and freedom of speech. The Epstein files debacle will not bring out young voters who aren’t necessarily Republicans and we need them to win.
DJT has defied the history so Republican party under Trump can do the same. American golden years are arriving by the second half of 2025 and they will thrive in the next 3 years so I predict we will keep the house in 2026, no doubt about the supper chamber and almost for sure presidency in 2028. These achievements will be Trump’s legacy in many years to come.
Great analysis!
I’d love to forward an article to some friends whom I’ve been trying to get to switch away from AAA to AMAC. But you won’t allow me to without them subscribing. Too bad..
If Republicans want to sweep next years midterms, they better pass legislation that helps folks cope with prices still being high, especially at the grocery store! Tariffs are still affecting prices on products we import. Either prices need to come down or incomes need to increase! Open up more of the economy! Can’t do this with the status quo!
This Marxist Democrat party complains all the time but they never come up with a plan to make this country better.They want to spend are money like water thru a sieve,on things we would never spend on.Is it funny that the socialist Democrats go into politics with average income and are millionaires whall in congress. There are more millionaires in Democratic party then Republicans.