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Labor Day Update: Crunch Time for 3 Campaigns

Posted on Monday, September 6, 2021
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by AMAC Newsline
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labor day update campaign crunch time

AMAC Exclusive – by Pat Conroy

While most Americans enjoy some well-deserved time off on Labor Day, for political candidates the holiday is the first day of the crucial home stretch of the fall campaign season. In the coming weeks, three states will hold gubernatorial elections: Virginia, New Jersey, and the recall election in California. All will be widely watched for signs that may portend a Democrat collapse in the midterm elections next year.

While we’ll have to wait until November for results in Virginia and New Jersey, the California recall vote will offer results on September 14. Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom is fighting for his political life thanks to California’s unconventional recall process. In one of the bluest states in the country, Republicans find themselves with a real chance to take over the Governor’s mansion 8 days from now.

All 22 million registered voters in California have received a ballot in the mail with two questions. First, the central question, “Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?” Second, voters are to select a candidate to succeed Gavin Newsom as Governor if he is recalled. On the recall question, “no, do not remove” is leading slightly by 5% in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Out of the candidates vying to replace Newsom, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, is running far ahead of the field by more than 15% on the RCP average.

Newsom’s campaign team is sounding the alarm about the recall threat. Democrats are attempting to frame the completely constitutional recall effort as a “Republican power-grab.” The Newsom campaign has massively outspent Republican challengers and in their latest television ad, they recruited Senator Bernie Sanders to implore voters to save Newsom. “The September 14 recall of Governor Newsom is a bald-faced Republican power grab,” Sanders said. “Don’t let it happen.” If the socialist from Vermont’s plea proves unsuccessful, Republicans will have won their first California governor’s race since 2006, when former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected after first being elected in a similar 2003 recall.

If history is any guide, Republicans also have a fighting chance in the two traditional elections this fall in Virginia and New Jersey. During the first off-year election in each of the last three presidencies, the party controlling the White House has lost both the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. In 2001, Democrat Mark Warner defeated Republican Mark Earley in Virginia and Democrat nominee Jim McGreevey defeated Republican Bret Schundler in New Jersey. In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Craig Deeds in Virginia and Republican Chris Christie defeated Democrat incumbent John Corzine in New Jersey. And most recently in 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy defeated Republican Kim Guadagno in New Jersey.

In each of those elections, the party that did not control the White House held a significant turnout advantage that helped propel their candidates to victory. Without former President Donald Trump on the ballot to stoke Democrat turnout, combined with President Biden’s sinking poll numbers, Republicans have at least some reason for cautious optimism in both states.

In the Garden State, Republicans likely face their toughest challenge of the three elections. Democrat Governor Phil Murphy is comfortably leading the Republican challenger, former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, with less than two months to go until election day. In every head-to-head poll conducted up until this point, Murphy has led Ciattarelli by more than 15 points. To make Ciattarelli’s challenge even more difficult, New Jersey has more than one million registered Democrats than Republicans.

However, there is one potential saving grace for the Ciattarelli campaign – recent history. Despite the state’s deep blue political make up, Republicans have managed to control the Governor’s office for 24 of the last 40 years. In fact, the last time New Jersey re-elected a Democrat governor was in 1977, when Brendan Byrne defeated Republican challenger Raymond Bateman. Whether that trend continues or is merely a fluke is yet to be determined. What impact the recent precipitous collapse in Joe Biden’s approval ratings will have on the race also remains to be seen.

Republicans’ best chance this fall undoubtedly lies in the Old Dominion, where former Democrat Governor Terry McAuliffe and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin are facing off. Many political pundits have suggested that, after more than a decade of mostly Democrats victories, Virginia is now solidly a blue state. But according to polling released last week by Trafalgar Group, 46.6% of likely Virginia voters support McAuliffe while 46.3% support Youngkin – a statistical tie. If this holds true, the roughly 5% of Virginians who said they are still undecided in the Trafalgar poll will determine Virginia’s next Governor.

It also appears that McAuliffe’s recent campaigning with President Biden may not have been the greatest strategy after all. Biden’s recent poll numbers slipping to record lows have mirrored the tightening race for Governor in Virginia. Momentum is clearly on Glenn Youngkin’s side, and his campaign is attempting to capitalize on it. In an effort to win those crucial undecided voters, Youngkin recently released a full policy platform as his “Day One Game Plan.”

“We have a lot we need to get done here in Virginia, and we need to start strong. It is time for bold leadership, and the Day One Game Plan takes on the challenges facing Virginians and puts us on a path toward having the best jobs, the best schools, and the safest communities in America,” said Glenn Youngkin in his rollout announcement. “Terry McAuliffe and his liberal Richmond allies are failing Virginia, and it’s going to take a new kind of leader—not a failed politician looking for a second chance—to create a Commonwealth where businesses can prosper, students can thrive, and communities are safe.”

The three issue areas where Youngkin expects to make gains among independent voters are the economy, education, and public safety – all of which are in decline under the current Northam administration. Youngkin says his economic plan of significant tax reform, commonsense deregulation, and small business incentives would create 400,000 new jobs in Virginia. He drives home the need for substantial change by highlighting on his campaign website that “Virginia currently ranks 44th in job recovery during the pandemic and was recently ranked as the 49th best state to start a business.”

Meanwhile, on education, Youngkin recognizes that Virginians are fed up with the prevalence of Critical Race Theory and other anti-American ideologies in public school classrooms. His website details “ridding political agendas from the classroom by banning Critical Race Theory.”

Recent actions taken by the McAuliffe campaign suggest they also know CRT is a losing issue and unpopular with Virginians. According to new reporting from the Washington Free Beacon, Terry McAuliffe “removed his pledge to “eliminate racial disparities” from the top of his campaign’s K-12 education page…the Democrat also nixed the term “equitable” from the top of four issue pages on his campaign site.”

Finally, Youngkin seeks to address the 20-year high murder rate currently ravaging Virginia communities. He’s proposing “fully funding law enforcement and protecting qualified immunity for our law enforcement heroes.” Once again, the Youngkin campaign recognizes a massive vulnerability for the Democrats and McAuliffe campaign, which dates back to their party’s ill-advised embrace of the “Defund the Police” movement in the lead up to the 2020 presidential election. For proof, look no further than the McAuliffe campaign releasing an ad touting the former Governor’s law enforcement endorsements, shortly after Youngkin savaged McAuliffe for the Virginia crime rate.

Between the elections unfolding in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, it’s clear that political pendulum has swung back toward Republicans and Democrats are back on their heels. The only question remains, can Republicans close the deal this fall?

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Michael
Michael
2 years ago

I read all the comments and replies to comments. Most agree that Democrats are getting fed carefully strategized propaganda that keeps even brilliant individuals fooled AND Republicans need to wake up and do something! Does anyone really know an effective strategy for “Average John/Jane” to do to make a difference? Does anyone have a list of leaders and groups that are, in fact, making a positive difference?

Andrew P
Andrew P
2 years ago

I am hopeful that we can win VA and CA, but I am afraid that the abortion issue may allow the Democrats to pull victory out of the jaws of defeat.

Skep41
Skep41
2 years ago

Here in California our crooked-as-a-pigs-tail electoral system will pretty much ensure Newsome’s victory, no matter what the actual voters say. The Democrats spent $24 billion on a Bullet Train that never got built but you can be sure there’s a Bullet Train full of bogus ballots ready to be ‘harvested’ for Newsome, should he fall short in the actual vote. The big takeaway here is who is abandoning the Democrats to vote for Elder. While the wealthy white coastal elite retains it’s simple faith in the Progressive doxology the poverty-stricken and mainly minority inhabitants away from the coast are deserting The Party That Cares in droves. A true revolution. The result should be interesting.

Larkenson
Larkenson
2 years ago

Anti-White liberals and respectable conservatives that support massive third-world immigration and FORCED assimilation for EVERY White country and ONLY White countries say that they are anti-racist, but their policies will lead to a world with no White people i.e White Genocide.
Anti-racist is a code word for anti-White.

R.S. Helms
R.S. Helms
2 years ago

Let’s hope … let’s pray that the Democrats & RINO (all Luciferians) lose for the next several elections so the Conservatives can rid the nation of the cumbersome Luciferian Bureaucracy and slim down the waist-line of the Federal government. And undo the social healthcare, put insurance back where it should be, redo the CDC and the Health system … and while taking care of these, force the Federal Government to pay back all the Social Security Money they have stolen.

Karen
Karen
2 years ago

I’m in New Jersey and although I like Phil as a person, I certainly don’t approve of his Democratic policies. Gonna go for Jack anyway even tho’ NJ is a Dem/Socialistic state.
Good luck Larry Elder and Jack C.

Eddie Van Halen
Eddie Van Halen
2 years ago

Gavin Nuisance political “life ?” He should consider CIA approved cyanide capsules.
As ALL ( D ) communists should do as well. Would’nt that be great ?

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

I see once again my comments have been censored by AMAC. What’s wrong AMAC? Are you afraid of the additional context I supplied regarding the New Jersey race, because it doesn’t fit neatly into your suggested narrative? The readers deserve the full context of each race being discussed in the article.

Joe
Joe
2 years ago

If California is using computers for the voter count, Newsom wins big.

Myrna
Myrna
2 years ago

If cheating can win Newsom continuance, California is stuck.

Guest
Guest
2 years ago

Stop Bernie Sanders, who cares what he thinks. Become a constitutional defender.

Russ Hart
Russ Hart
2 years ago

Vote ????

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

Even as a non-Californian but solid American believer in Constitutional Democracy, I hope California can shake off the Newsom era advance towards Communism.

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

First off, they can take all these poll numbers & shove them where the sun don’t shine…!
CA needs to be watched closely, they will LIE, CHEAT & STEAL to keep Newsom in office…Check out those ” Mail-In Ballots ” in CA folks. There is a rectangular ” hole ” on the backside of the envelope that allows anyone to look inside & clearly see the ” RECALL, YES/NO ” box…
It shouldn’t take a genius to figure out why a hole is put into mail in ballot & strategically placed I might add. The Democrats are the masters of cheating because quite frankly, it is the only way they can get elected & stay elected…Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders may be a blessing in disguise for the conservative voters of CA btw…He is a arrogant loud mouth blowhard as his days are over…
Bill on the Hill… :~)

Pete from St Pete
Pete from St Pete
2 years ago

When I hear that 43 per cent of Democrats still approve of Joe Biden’s performance as President, I can only shake my head and wonder what kind of cement they have in their heads.

Bonnie
Bonnie
2 years ago

I think the poll numbers are wrong. I don’t think it’s as close as they say. In order to even get as far on the recall as they have, there had to be more than just Republicans leading the way. I think people, no matter what side of the aisle they stand, understand that Newsom’s done a horrible job managing the state and needs to go. There were plenty of Democrats and Independents involved in the recall, not just Republicans.

Gunny Joe
Gunny Joe
2 years ago

When will the American people wake up? It is not the party we are voting for, it is the state you live in, and most important America! All and I can’t can’t state this strong enough, the election process has to be watched. Should have been corrected before this election. How many noncitizen will vote? How many dead people will vote? How many harvest votes will be influenced? How many people will send in the mail in ballot then vote in person? Till the above and other cheating is corrected by the American people, the only outcome will be the party that cheated the best.

David Spade
David Spade
2 years ago

Bernie is running for top spot for the idiot of the month in the Marxist Democrat party. He appears to be running neck and neck with McAuliffe in the leftist state of Virginia. It is so sad that these hapless individuals can’t even figure out what is best for America over there demented, Marxist personal agendas.

Art
Art
2 years ago

So the pendulum has “swung”? Far enough to even get a sniff of victory? Hope that they are real “Rs” not RINOS. Youngkin “plans to address a 20 year murder rate UPTICK”. HOW? NOW? Gruesome Newsom has the full throated support of Liz Warren and even Princess Spread Eagle(Kamala Harris Imhoff for those of you in Rio Linda,CA). The action to save the ship just gets more entertaining every day. Nazi Pelosi’s/Delansandro’s nephew is in danger. He will be OK. How many ballots have been sent out???? 2 million??? YOU GO LARRY ELDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Murphy you also protected. Love your taxes and other foul programs.

Rik
Rik
2 years ago

Get real People, the Progressively Communist wannabe Democrats CAN’T have Comrade Newsom LOSE! Hundreds of thousands of phony mail-in ballots will GUARANTEE that HE DOESN’T! Wanna bet?

Jim Carlyle
Jim Carlyle
2 years ago

Sen. Sanders is so creative–declaring the Newsom recall as a “Republican Power Grab”–all this in a single party state where the Unions are the real “power grabbers”.

J. Farley
J. Farley
2 years ago

Recall, Governor (Nuisance) Newsom and elect a real leader, Larry Elder, make California,
Great Again—–GO LARRY !!!!
Throw out the Demonrats in New Jersey and Virginia, in November, and make those two Sates great again.

Michael l Javick
Michael l Javick
2 years ago

President Trump needs to hold a few rallies in California !

Loves Dogs
Loves Dogs
2 years ago

Do you think they will steal the election like the did the Presidential and Senate in GA? If RealClearPolitics is saying that Newson NOT being recalled is in the lead by 5% then that tells me they are either Fake News or not asking a big enough sample size. To recall Newson is definitely in the lead in CA. If it does not succeed then that means the Democrats stole another election and they will keep stealing them as long as the Dominion machines are in use.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Signed petition & voted for CA recall effort already

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

Your article quotes the following regarding the New Jersey race:

“In the Garden State, Republicans likely face their toughest challenge of the three elections. Democrat Governor Phil Murphy is comfortably leading the Republican challenger, former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, with less than two months to go until election day. In every head-to-head poll conducted up until this point, Murphy has led Ciattarelli by more than 15 points. To make Ciattarelli’s challenge even more difficult, New Jersey hasmore than one million registered Democrats than Republicans.”

While what little you have written concerning the New Jersey race is accurate, it is important to understand why the Republican challenger is lagging so much aside from the numerically larger Democrat voter base in my state. One important distinction is that unlike either Youngkin or Elder, Ciattarelli has gone to great pains to distance himself from either the MAGA agenda or from President Trump. Unfortunately for most Republican voters in NJ that desperately want the kind of bold change that Trump offered the country in the state to turn things around, what Ciattarelli is doing is running as an old line, establishment “moderate” Republican in the mold of Christine Todd Whitman. Think Democrat-lite. A strategy the Republican party in this state has stuck to for years with again unfortunately predictable results. Like New York, New Jersey’s Republican party is pretty much run by the same old guard types, so fresh blood and new ideas are not exactly what is offered up.

Yes, Republican voters in this state will vote for Ciattarelli on the basis that he is the lesser of two evils, rather than being a stark alternative to the destructive policies of Murphy and the Democrats. Unfortunately, I think he will run into trouble peeling off enough disaffected Independent and Democrat voters if he continues to stay on his present course. It always comes back to the same question: Why would a disaffected Independent or Democrat voter vote for a Republican candidate, if the Republican candidate was running as essentially Democrat-lite? With no stark alternative ideals to offer, what’s the compelling rationale to vote for a watered down version of what you already have?

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