Democrat Meltdown

When intransigence, demagoguery, threats, and word breaking are indulged – they roar back.  As they say, “what goes around comes around.”  Democrats are learning.  If you punt on due process, comity, compromise, respect for law, solvency, and public will, things change.

After two slap-dash impeachments, scalding rhetoric, uncontrolled border, riots in 200 cities, defunding police, and a calamity in Afghanistan – Democrats are collecting an early harvest.

Public perceptions of Democrat respect for due process, judicial rulings, state legislation, and Supreme Court are record low.  The southern border is overrun by Haitians, Central Americans, other nationalities seeking illegal entry.  Drug trafficking is out of control, 96,000 kids dead. Police recruiting, retention, and morale are down, homicide rates skyrocketing.

Domestic and international respect for US leadership is abysmal, foreign press savaging the Biden Administration. Now – as if no one cared – Democrats try to jam $3.5 and $1.2 trillion-dollar bills through both chambers, demanding moderate Senate Democrats trust House radicals (self-styled progressives), and House radicals trust moderate House Democrats.

No dice.  Trust among trust-breakers is thin, no honor among thieves. What we are watching is the operational definition of political comeuppance.  Put differently, this is what happens when those driven by power, sure they can strongarm others, meet and go over the brink together.

I am reminded of the famous scene in “Rebel Without a Cause,” where James Dean takes a “chicken run” with teen peer Buzz.  Neither expects to go over the edge, but Buzz does.

On facts, picking up mid-plot, here is where we are.  Speaker Pelosi, having tried several political tricks to force passage of a $3.5 trillion socialist (power centralizing) spending bill – which would transform state prerogatives to federal, drive national debt over $30 trillion, push up inflation, make bond markets stutter – decided to push the “bipartisan” $1.2 trillion spending bill with “progressive” support, promising their $3.5 trillion bill would follow.

They said, no way.  They do not trust her.  They do not trust moderate House or Senate Democrats to press the $3.5 trillion “go socialism” bill.  Meantime, Senate moderates – like Senators Manchin and Sinema – are apoplectic, as they wanted the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, and will not “go big” for $3.5 trillion a “human infrastructure” gambit.

Playing God, Pelosi assured the press she would engineer a double vote last week, only to find members of her own caucus do not trust her. Thus, the vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan bill got put off, “as the far-left wing of the Democratic caucus refused to back the bill, unless there was an agreement on a separate $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package” – that is, the $3.5 trillion – “packed with left-wing spending priorities and tax increases.” See, Sinema slams Dem leadership over ‘inexcusable’ failure to hold vote on infrastructure bill.

Meetings with Biden did no good, as the trust at opposing ends of Pennsylvania Avenue – although all Democrats – is hardly better than among House Democrats, or between chambers.

In short, “Democrats conceded that the votes were not there to pass the infrastructure bill, with talks still ongoing with moderate Democrats – including Sinema – to come to an agreement on the reconciliation package.”  Sure, maybe.

Although the larger bill could pass the Senate without facing a filibuster – if 50 votes existed – chances are fading, as moderate Senate Democrats are insisting the bill be considerably smaller.  Senator Manchin put a powerful marker in place – no way he will support $3.5 trillion.  See, Manchin Statement on Infrastrcuture and Reconciliation Negotiations.

Tempers within the Democrat caucus are rising.  After the far left in the House blocked the $1.2 trillion bill, Democrat Senator Sinema came down like a hammer, following Senator Manchin, calling House actions "an ineffective stunt to gain leverage over a separate proposal," the $3.5 trillion bill.  Her invective got hotter Saturday, questioning their “good faith.” See, e.g., Sen. Kyrsten Sinema: Delayed vote on infrastructure bill 'inexcusable' and 'deeply disappointing'; Sinema slams delay of infrastructure vote: 'Inexcusable'.

Meantime, President Biden’s influence seems to slide by the day.  Meetings with him last week – including with leading Democrats – did nothing.  Reelection is front-and-center for many.

In fact, “clashing Democratic factions” are “fueling the party’s anxiety about the path forward and their prospects in elections this year and next,” and Biden seems more a bit player than president.  In any event, he produced no consensus. See, e.g., Democratic Clashes Hold Up Biden’s Agenda After Rocky Month.

As if talking to himself, Biden resolved “it does not matter whether it’s in six minutes, six days or six weeks, we’re going to get it done,” and with that exited stage left.

So, what are the stakes, implications of failure, chances Democrats get both bills?  Hard to say, but their current plan is not working – hung up on trust, as tempers continue to rise.

If progressives cannot trust Pelosi, and demand $3.5 trillion in spending, creating resentment among Senate Moderates, nothing happens.  If House progressives cave, they might pass the $1.2 trillion, allowing conference and signing. Getting $3.5 trillion from the Senate seems unlikely.

If tempers continue to rise among Democrats, what was political, professional, and vigorous may turn personal, impossible, and venal.  What we are seeing is what happens when everyone is “throwing down,” and members quick to decry conservatives become a circular firing squad.

Where does it end?  Not clear, but stakes are high. Public perceptions of Democrat professionalism, trust, honor, and fidelity are fast fraying.  The economy is creaking, inflation rising, new spending a heavy burden, markets uneasy.  In a phrase, Democrats are in meltdown.