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Democrats’ “Emerging Majority” Mirage

Posted on Wednesday, September 20, 2023
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by Andrew Abbott
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AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Abbott

Democrat president Joe Biden sitting on a chair smirking with a red and blue background

A series of recent polls showing disastrous numbers for President Joe Biden have cast more doubt on what Democrats once touted as an insurmountable “emerging majority” of support for their party, while also forecasting serious issues for Biden’s re-election effort.

A Wall Street Journal survey released earlier this month found that just 39 percent of voters hold a favorable view of the president, with 73 percent saying Biden is too old to seek a second term – a figure that includes two-thirds of Democrats.

Biden is deeply underwater on virtually every issue, including the economy, inflation, securing the border, improving infrastructure, dealing with China, creating jobs, and the war in Ukraine.

Former President Donald Trump, who continues to dominate the GOP primaries, holds a 10-point lead over Biden on the question of mental fitness for the job. By an 11-point advantage, voters said Trump had a record of accomplishment as president.

The Journal notes that Biden’s dismal numbers come as the president “has spent months traveling the country promoting his economic record and legislative achievements, including major investments in infrastructure, clean energy and technology.” Yet it appears those supposed victories aren’t breaking through with voters – likely because many of them weren’t actually the “historic” wins for ordinary Americans that Democrats had promised.

Perhaps even more concerningly for the president, just days after the release of the Journal poll, a New York Times article chronicled “consistent signs of erosion in Black and Hispanic support for Biden” in polling data. Given that Biden relied heavily on strong support from nonwhite voters in 2020, a collapse in support among that demographic could doom his re-election effort.

But as the Times notes, Biden’s struggles with nonwhite voters may not be a problem unique to him: “If [Biden is] unable to revitalize this support by next November, it will continue a decade-long trend of declining Democratic strength among voters considered to be the foundation of the party.”

While that sentence is tucked away 10 paragraphs down in the Times analysis of Biden’s struggles with nonwhite voters, it is nonetheless a noteworthy admission from a liberal press that once embraced the notion that Democrats’ strength with minority voters was unshakable and would lend them permanent control over the levers of power.

21 years ago this November, the Times ran an excerpt from a new book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, by political scientists John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. The book asserted that if the Democrat Party could continue to appeal to young and minority voters, the Republican Party would be obsolete in a matter of decades. Importantly, the book made clear that Democrats would have to hold on to their working-class base in order to make this vision a reality.

Yet, as the book was disseminated and distilled throughout the Democrat Party, the narrative was simplified. Obama’s election in 2008 seemed to confirm that “demographics are destiny” and the Democrat Party’s pre-ordained permanent majority had arrived.

In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Teixeira notes that following Obama’s election, many Democrats began referring to their party as the “coalition of the ascendant.” He asserts that this carried the implication of “a moral judgment” that those who are with the Democrats are morally righteous.

That disdain has cost Democrats dearly, Teixeira notes: “If you look at the nonwhite working-class—black, Hispanic, Asian, but particularly driven by Hispanics—Democrats have lost 19 margin points between 2012 and 2020, while they’ve gained 16 margin points among white college-educated voters.”

Teixeria has also noted in a recent op-ed that Biden’s waning support among nonwhite working-class voters could be a calamity for the party in 2024. Obama carried this coalition by 67 points in 2012. Biden was able to carry it by 48 points in 2020. Now, polls have Biden leading Trump among these voters by only 16 points.

Most troubling for Democrats is the stark divide between Biden and nonwhite working-class voters on cultural issues. For instance, 70% of nonwhite working-class voters believe biological males should not be allowed to play in women’s sports. Biden, meanwhile, has threatened to withhold federal lunch money from schools that refuse to allow biological males to compete with the girls.

The realignment of nonwhite working-class voters away from the Democrat Party also appears to have been helped along by the emergence of Trump’s brand of populist conservative politics. In 2020, Trump won the largest share of all nonwhite voters of any Republican presidential candidate since 1960.

In the end, it seems that the voters the political “experts” once thought would hand Democrats a permanent majority may in fact be the reason they lose power.

Andrew Abbott is the pen name of a writer and public affairs consultant with more than a decade of experience in DC at the intersection of politics and culture.

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Donna
Donna
1 year ago

It’s just like tough guy Joe to threaten withholding lunches from school children to punish those who believe that men and women sports should be separate. He is such a bully and always has been. It is a shame that we have so many fools in our country that voted for such a jerk, and the rest of us have to pay the price for their foolishness.

Rik
Rik
1 year ago

BIDENOMICS being promoted as a success? . . . Sorry Jackass Joe but that’s just more Russian Disinformation!

Lawrence Greenberg
Lawrence Greenberg
1 year ago

The political Left in this nation has not had majority popular or voter support since the 1960s. So how, you ask, do they win elections? Very simple: they cheat. There is documentary evidence showing cheating and election fraud by the Democrat Party dating back to the 1850s. Yes, you read that right. It is in the history books, for those who bother to read such things any more (and no, Howard Zinn’s books do not count as “history”). In recent years, the Democrats have developed their cheating and fraud into a science.

Moonpup
Moonpup
1 year ago

OK, so he’s losing the Black and Hispanic votes, now to see if there’s a way to get rid of the mechanical and fake mail-in ballots. If your state does not demand voter photo ID, your state leadership welcomes voter fraud.

DenvilleSr
DenvilleSr
1 year ago

Proving some level of voter fraud is easy and has been done many times over. Proving how much, or if it would have impacted election results is another matter. There are many opportunities for fraud. The liberal fiction that elderly and poor can’t get IDs is preposterous, but it is the argument against requiring voter ID. However, since voter registration and obtaining a drivers license is done at the same time in my and other states, there have been instances of people who can drive legally but are not citizens being signed up to vote. The question is how many haven’t been identified. Some cities are allowing non-citizens to vote in non-federal elections, so it is easy to see how some of this might be happening. States do not uniformly cleanse voter registration roles of people who have moved or died. There have been instances of voters who have been identified as voting in more than one voting precinct. A Judicial Watch investigation found that a small upstate New York county removed more invalid voters from the roles over a certain period of time than Manhattan (aka New York County). Judicial Watch had to go to court to get NYC to comply with the law, resulting in thousands of people being removed. Allowing situations where voter fraud can happen means voter fraud will happen. We need to eliminate these opportunities. Voter ID would be a start.

Ben Franklin
Ben Franklin
1 year ago

Marxist Democrats are going to lose big time in Nov. 2024. They can only win by cheating

Loves Dogs
Loves Dogs
1 year ago

Wow, to say that Trump holds a 10 point lead over Biden you must have killed you. You must be looking at some Dem conducted poll. I have seen polls saying Trump holds a 30+ point lead over Biden. Never seen one that just said 10 points.

tofbs
tofbs
1 year ago

I STILL CAN NOT FIND A BUILD BACK BETTER HAT

Jose
Jose
1 year ago

Since when is record high inflation and unsecured borders a success. This administration has failed and needs to be replaced. Four more years of Biden will sink this country.

Kevin
Kevin
1 year ago

The emperor has no clothes.

Marc Ziegler.
Marc Ziegler.
1 year ago

If you want to destroy this country, think like and vote for a Democratic. A Democratic Politician has no problem voting for anything that diminishes America’s power or prestige which only hurts the people they are supposed to serve! Just look at the how many Dems are voting to “Defund the Police”, something that only a politician would do if they wanted to destroy America and make us all unsafe. Biden and his Marist Crew are only thinking about themselves, not us common folk, they are in their highfalutin Washington bobble, not thinking of us, having a good time, but soon will have a real rude awakening come 2024. Go Trump, MAGA

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 year ago

Age is not the issue but his competency… or rather his INCOMPETENCY. Joe Biden has always been a moron but there’s nothing worse than a mentally-diminished moron!

Morbious
Morbious
1 year ago

More positive thinking. In fact, millennials are steadfastly left leaning and as they assume ascendancy and replace boomers, will become the driving force in politics for decades. They were fed climate alarmism from kindergarten and were assigned howard zinns lying screed as history text in hs. They disdain boomers for leaving them with the bill for ss and medicare. They believe their phones contain all the info they’ll ever need and that wisdom is an archaic anachronism. The other fact is that most nonwhite voters are firmly in the dem category. 2020 proved that. Finally, once the commies give citizenship to the illegals after putting them on welfare the final blow will have been struck. This is what happened in california. The demon party plan is to make it happen to the entire country. Still, there is the unforeseen and hope for miracles.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
1 year ago

What majority?? Where

Newday
Newday
1 year ago

Worst President ever. How could his poll numbers not be low? I have never seen so many problems in our country that are all results of terrible policies he supports.

Jackie
Jackie
1 year ago

And that decline of the Democrat Party is well deserved!! Democrats have done nothing for the black communities – ever – and yet the black communities mistakenly vote Democrat most of the time!! Black people, if you want to know about Democrats and black Americans, go read some of the real history, not the history that Democrats have messed with!! The same goes for the brown voters – Democrats have done nothing for them!! All Democrats do is make promises that they never intend to keep, therefore, they are a bunch of hypocrites!!! I hope the black and brown voters will take a better look at exactly who they are voting for!! Go back and look at their voting record on issues that concern black and brown people, see what they really think of you, I don’t care what they said!!! I will also bet that if the black and brown voters turn against the Democrats, they will still win because they cheat!! I believe they cheated in the last election – I don’t believe that there were 80 million actual voters who voted for Biden!!!

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
1 year ago

These buttheads don’t realize saying inflation is coming downs there that inflation is still in effect and prices are being reduced. While at $2.15 or higher a gallon the refined price at the pump isn’t going down either. His energy policy makes him an enemy of the state, a la Gene Hackman and Will Smith.

Ron St. Martin
Ron St. Martin
1 year ago

Gained 16 margin points with college educated (Brainwashed) white students, and they say college makes you smarter. Communist education camps!

Scott
Scott
1 year ago

No matter how far ahead we are in the polls, the 2000 mules will make sure we don’t win the election.

Thinking
Thinking
1 year ago

The democrats haven’t shown that they are for America, they haven’t done anything positive for Americans white, black or brown.
They are meddling in the private lives of the people especially the trans and LGB etc., a minority and made them the most hated people in America because of his pushing trans and sex education and equity, inclusion and diversity mandating. These things have no place in politics only sows hatred among the races. Which was not there. This is managing people’s lives and dictating what to think how to think. Making parents domestic terrorists and mutilating our children. If it is one thing the Hispanics and Blacks love it is their kids. They don’t want the government to raise them. And don’t forget all the migrants coming in, many of them do not want them here. Then education is totally non existent. What with the trans and CRT curriculum that is priority one in ole Joe’s administration.
Plus the morals in this country has hit bottom. Killings and other criminal behavior is rewarded and victims are punished. To defund the police is hurting all Americans regardless of color or race.
And let us not forget the FBI raiding Catholic Churches. All in all the dictatorship ole Joe is trying to put together isn’t working. When it was started under O it put many people off from the democrats. And now I hear more and more die hard dems saying “I will never vote for the dems again”. Ole Joe has brought this country down to his level and the people don’t buy it. They want to succeed in the land of the Free and home of the Brave.

Myrna
Myrna
1 year ago

There is hope.

Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
1 year ago

While the democrats have two old white men running for president the republicans have an african american, India american, Hispanic american, a female, and a white guy running. This is the difference between the democrats KKK history and the republican big tent.
The democrats are anti family, anti law and order, anti babies, pro mandating experimental drugs, anti self protection, pro increasing taxes, pro-grooming and perversion in schools, and pro baby killing. is this really what you stand for folks?
It is time for more minorities to wake up to the con the KKK democrats have played on them and start voting republican.

VoterAnn
VoterAnn
1 year ago

Biden may lose the Black & Hispanic votes, but the Democrat Party is enthusiastically replacing them with its support from and encouragement of ANTIFA, BLM, and LGBTQ+ people, as well as those who advocate vociferously for the gruesome slaughtering of unborn children. America is doomed. God is judging us.

DDS
DDS
1 year ago

What’s that hanging from his left jacket sleeve in this photo? Can anyone tell me what it is? I do not call this man my President. No person that phony should have ever been elected to any office. What we now have a willfully blind engineer on a passenger train with no brakes and he’s smirking his way past every mile it destroys. Ask the people of Ohio.

patriot
patriot
1 year ago

It is hard to believe that Bidum could have more than 5% or less in polls. Are there really more idiots than that? That’s sad!

Anne
Anne
1 year ago

It seems to me the sports competition issue could be solved very simply: continue to have men’s and women’s categories, and add an “open” category for anyone that wishes to compete. After all, we have already implemented age restrictions to level the field. The Democrat supporters have started to figure out that a lot of the campaign rhetoric is never implemented, and that their votes have been taken for granted for decades. And we absolutely need an administration focused on solving the issues, not dodging them or ignoring them. I don’t need a president that is on vacation one-third of his time in office. Nor do I want one that stays on vacation during a crisis. Our current president appears to be oblivious to the things that are truly important to the majority of the people.

Frank
Frank
1 year ago

How quaint, AMAC still thinks elections are viable! So precious…
It’s probably useless here to belabor the many reasons why the Deep State has captured “elections” in this county, so I won’t bother. But any cursive glance at sites like GatewayPundit, AmericanThinker. or RealClearPolitics (dot com, of course) can fill the void.
We are faced with a foe that this country has never seen or experienced before — an entirely captive Government, by and to foreign powers, that are hellbent on subjugating everyone in this country it considers “under its thumb.”
How you resist is up to you.
Prayers to you and yours….

Gary Lee
Gary Lee
1 year ago

 ” Democrats are morally righteous.” Correction: Democrats are actually morally depraved.

JJoanne4justice
JJoanne4justice
1 year ago

The Bowser “stool pigeon woman ” is a huge example of dirty Dem party in action. She is surely a sick- o and on the George Soros charitable ????? Foundation payroll as well.

Steve
Steve
1 year ago

PELOSI LIED! Former Police Chief Sund Testifies Pelosi Called Him 3 Times on J6 – Has the Records – Rumble Video
commoncts.blogspot.com/2023/09/pelosi-lied-former-police-chief-sund.html

Andrew P
Andrew P
1 year ago

As long as single women continue to move Left, and fewer people marry every year, the Democrats will have a permanent majority. Single Women vote D+37 now, and that margin is bound to continue increasing.

Jim
Jim
1 year ago

The 39 % that hold a favorable view of the president should be gathered up and put in the middle of Iran or Afghanistan.

Patrick Switzer
Patrick Switzer
1 year ago

Biden is done for. If Trump is the nominee I’m voting for him.

Daniel Shays
Daniel Shays
1 year ago

To be fair to the authors, 21 years ago the Democrat party had not yet turned into a bund of rich coastal fascist oligarchs and had not yet become stupid enough to claim that men can give birth.

Tony
Tony
1 year ago

Trump has begun threatening the “No abortion ever!” movement. He knows this issue is a guaranteed loser. If Republicans can moderate their policy on abortion (and that’s a big IF), he will easily defeat Biden.

JJoanne4justice
JJoanne4justice
1 year ago

The issue is; how and when can America get away from this bad crippling, government in Wh and Congress?. I am not sure the next election will be decisive:;nor be a “saving grace ” for America !

Jeri
Jeri
1 year ago

Look up the definition of mirage, and all will become clear.

MBlanc46
MBlanc46
1 year ago

2020 election: Totally Legit Joe Biden—80 million. Former President Donald Trump—74 million. I’d say that’s a majority.

Red wave 24
Red wave 24
1 year ago

Red wave!
let me get my swim suit for the tears again! Lol

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President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pray at the altar in the Redemptor Hominis Church Tuesday, June 2, 2020, at the Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)

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