Will the Ceasefire Hold?

The new Gaza ceasefire is very curious. Although it has 20 conditions, only two of them now really matter: the return of the Israeli hostages, deceased and alive, and the total disarmament and removal of the terrorist organization Hamas from the Gaza territory.

Imposed by President Donald Trump following Israel’s go-it-alone bombing of Hamas leaders in Qatar, Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire, which offered some real compromises for the Palestinians living in Gaza, but none for what remained of the brutal Hamas forces. Israel has notably eliminated several generations of Hamas commanders, as well as approximately 35,000 Hamas fighters. The terrorist group has retreated to what remains of its vast network of underground tunnels.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had, following the initial 2023 Hamas invasion and brutal massacre of Israeli men, women, and children, accomplished the near-miraculous defeat of the long-term threat of jihad against its very existence. This threat originated in Iran but has been supported by Iran’s allies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Although caught by surprise on October 7, 2023, Israel’s intelligence-gathering groups and the IDF have made a remarkable recovery to become the dominant military force in the Middle East.

While Hamas has failed in its militant efforts, its propaganda machine has met with noteworthy success. Aided by a sympathetic liberal global media, it has turned out almost daily videos showing suffering Palestinian civilian women and children, accompanied by exaggerated numbers of casualties. This effort has, over time, turned world opinion against Israel’s necessary and justifiable campaign to dislodge Hamas from its brutal control of Gaza and end its jihad to destroy the Jewish state.

Not a single European nation that has condemned Israel would have behaved any differently if it had been the target of Hamas terrorists. Nor do global observers of the conflict seem to consider fairly the fact that the terrorists hide in schools, hospitals, churches, and tunnels adjacent to civilian homes, deliberately using the civilian population as human shields – thus making themselves responsible for most of the civilian casualties.

The undeniable truth is that most of the Palestinian casualties were Hamas fighters, and that the Israelis have made historically unprecedented efforts to protect civilians.

In his first term, President Trump forged the Abraham Accords, in which four Muslim nations joined with Egypt and Jordan to begin to reverse the long-festering hostility toward Israel in the Middle East region. These Accords held but were not expanded during President Biden’s term. In his second term, President Trump has sought to expand the number of nations in the Accords, including, most critically, Saudi Arabia.

Israel’s emergence as a dominant military force in the Middle East was secretly pleasing to almost every Arab nation in the region, countries that feared the violent aggression of the jihadists ruling Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s efforts, while necessary to protect the Jewish state, in some cases hampered the prospect for broader peace. President Trump has correctly determined that for the Accords to hold and grow, the military conflict in Gaza had to end.

At the same time, he understood that the remaining Hamas-held hostages, living and dead, had to be returned, and Hamas needed to be disarmed.

Deftly consulting the regional Muslim nations and using America’s considerable leverage with Israel as its primary ally, funder, and provider of weaponry, President Trump fashioned a ceasefire. His ability to get Hamas to comply arose from his direct threat that he would, if necessary, assist the IDF in quickly finishing their military destruction of Hamas, something which had already become more and more imminent.

All of the living hostages have now been released. Fifteen of the deceased hostage bodies have also been turned over to Israel. Eight to 10 of those who remain under Hamas’s control are expected to be released very soon. Egypt is cooperating with Hamas to locate the final few bodies.

The ceasefire is now at its most critical point – the disarming and disbanding of Hamas in Gaza. The leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey want this to happen. They will continue to apply pressure on Hamas — as long as the larger issue of all the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank can be negotiated.

Israeli efforts in the Knesset to annex the West Bank are a deal-breaker, as is allowing the Palestine Liberation Organization to either take over Gaza or, further, to form a Palestinian state. Israel has also said that allowing Turkish military forces into Gaza is unacceptable.

Thus, a final agreement seems as elusive as ever. But the hostages are mostly back in Israel, and the ceasefire, if fragile, still holds.

Should the next step, the disarmament of Hamas, be achieved, however, perhaps the “impossible” can somehow continue to become possible after all.

Herald Boas is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.