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We Are in a New World

Posted on Friday, February 25, 2022
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

Putin

For months, we have heard warnings that Vladimir Putin might or would invade Ukraine. Now he has done so. History has numerous turning points, and plenty of roads not taken. But you cannot go back, only forward. Regardless of whether Ukraine joining NATO served American interests, or whether coming to an accommodation with Russia beforehand would not have harmed our interests, Russia has attacked Ukraine. At this point, it looks as though the Russians may win, potentially quickly and relatively easily. If so, the defeat of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield is a decisive defeat for the United States, NATO, and the end of the post-Cold War world order. Not because that “order” was based on any sort of norms, but it was based on a simple fact, or rather, a perception: only the United States could obliterate a conventional military almost effortlessly when it chose, for whatever reason it chose. Now that era is over.

The post-Cold War era did not in fact begin in December of 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The USSR was already a shadow of its former self by that time. That process had been finalized not in December of 1991 but in January 1991. At the end of that month, U.S.-led Coalition forces launched Operation Desert Storm against the Iraqi forces of Saddam Hussein in Kuwait. Iraq had the fourth largest army in the world at the time, with nearly a decade of experience fighting Iran, and the most modern Soviet weapons. Despite nearly a million men, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of modern aircraft, the Iraqi army was routed in less than one hundred hours with the loss of less than 200 Americans.

It was not the Iraqi army which was defeated on that battlefield, but the Soviets. For forty years, the Soviet Union had spent more than 50% of its budget on its military. Every other failure – low living standards, poor economic performance, lack of freedoms – was justified on the basis that at least the Soviet Union was a superpower, equal to the United States on the battlefield. The revelation that Soviet weapons were useless and could be destroyed from afar by modern American hardware was demoralizing. It revealed that the Soviet military was just as much of a joke as the Soviet economy, prompting a decade of jabs about Russian technical incompetence. For Soviet “patriots” like Putin, for whom strength was the one thing that made up for all other failings, it was the last straw. What good was a Soviet Union which spent that much to so little result?

At the same time, the American victory paved the way for a new international order. George Bush had hoped the Persian Gulf War would construct a “New World Order” around American ideals. Iraq had violated the sovereignty of another nation, the U.N. had condemned it, and a coalition of nations regardless of political ideology had united to oppose it. Syria under Hafez Assad sent troops to the coalition, and the Soviet Union and China joined the chorus.

Instead, the new era became defined by the extent of the American victory. If America could effortlessly destroy the world’s fourth largest military, it could destroy anyone it chose. If it could do so, it did not matter why it did, only whether or not it chose to. The new international system therefore revolved around the caprices of succeeding U.S. administrations. This is not to say that individually they did not have visions. But they were the personal visions of each administration. Bill Clinton intervened in Kosovo and expanded NATO because he felt like it and bought into the “end of history” dogma. George W. Bush acted as he did because he believed the U.S. could remake the world. Obama never rationed U.S. resources because he did not need to. Donald Trump, a businessman, spotted the flaws of this approach but failed to impose his alternative on the American establishment.

There is no choice now. What matters about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not why Russia did it. Just as with Bush’s liberation of Kuwait in 1991, the very fact that Russia pulled off this military operation, if successful, will have much greater relevance than why Putin decided to give the go-ahead. Ukraine has a substantial conventional military. It is smaller than Russia’s, but it still has more than 200,000 personnel under arms, armored forces, and has received over $2 billion in Western aid. Even if this money has not been utilized as well as it may have been, Ukraine is the largest country in Europe with a larger military than any NATO member other than the United States.

Russia’s attack mirrors Desert Storm. It opened with an extensive aerial and missile assault, designed to take out Ukraine’s air and naval assets in the opening hour of the conflict. This was followed by airborne and special forces assaults, cyberattacks on communications, and a general effort to isolate Ukrainian units. (In the Gulf War, Iraqi units which lacked communications received no orders, and ultimately melted away while coalition forces simply sat in place.)

If, and it is early, Russia wins not just a victory but a quick one in a matter of days, perhaps even matching the hundred hours of January 1991, Putin will have not just “avenged” Ukraine’s departure from the Soviet Union. He will also have avenged the Gulf War. He will have, using Russian weapon systems and Russian personnel, carried out a successful high-tech war against an enemy trained by the United States which received Western weapons. That the vast majority of Ukraine’s arsenal is still aging post-Soviet weapons will be glossed over in this propaganda. Putin will have restored Russian pride in the Russian Army and in the technical abilities of the Russian people. Just as the Gulf War erased “Vietnam Syndrome” the malaise in which Americans believed that foreign challenges were risky and often not worth the cost following the loss of South Vietnam, victory in the Ukraine will erase “Chechnya Syndrome”, the belief that Russian tech is defective, Russian officers incompetent, and Russian soldiers drunks.

On a more worrying level, if the 1990s and 2000s were defined by the belief that “only” the United States could carry out a Desert Storm, the 2020s will open with the proof that Russia can execute Desert Storms of its own – but not just Russia. China has a vastly larger and more sophisticated military. If Russia can carry out an operation on this scale, it would be safe to assume that what China could deploy in the Taiwan Strait is vastly more impressive.

The time for psychoanalyzing Putin or theorizing about the international order is over. The West needs to be able to figure out how to help a country resist the sort of assault Putin unleashed on Ukraine. Because if Putin can do this to Ukraine with impunity, what other country will risk aligning with the West against Russia or China in the future? Most are smaller than Ukraine, with vastly inferior military resources.

The challenge we face in the new order is a military one. If Putin succeeds in showing force can succeed, we cannot rely on economic pressure to make alignment with the West attractive, as it will serve little purpose if countries fear invasion for doing so. We are in a new world, and the sooner our leaders recognize it the better.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics. 

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Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Were in a Rerun War: relive WW2
o Blitz
o
Civilians in shelters IE London Blitz 1940

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

Once again the pen name Daniel Roman writes a piece for AMAC… This time around he has gotten a little closer to the motivations of Vladimir Putin of Russia…I agree, based on the aerial bombardment unleashed against the Ukraine, Desert Storm it did remind me…George W. Bush along with his Deep State loyalist within a war mongering military took it to the Iraqi’s & in the end Congress stopped him from rolling into Bagdad & sweeping up Hussein…That came a little later whilst he was found quivering in a hole in the ground & ultimately met his fate at the end of a rope, which was unsuccessful on the 1st drop, the 2nd drop reportedly took his head clean off…
So where do we go from here? Putin did in fact invade Ukraine which I repeatedly have said he wouldn’t, go figure…PROPAGANDA is once again in full force for about the last 24 hours or so…
On the theory that Putin does in fact capture Ukraine; Where does this leave Hunter & the Big Guy?
It sounds quite plausible the Biden Regime, aka gangsters, lose all those commissions direct deposited into those off shore accounts, i.e. the well will go dry…
Which brings me to another curiosity; What nation does the Biden regime now turn to to keep the money train rolling? Could it possibly be China? Admittedly, the thought is tantalizing, lol!
Bill… :~)

FJB
FJB
2 years ago

I don’t think anyone doubted Russia could swiftly defeat Ukraine. Germany, France and England need to get off their butts and deal with this EUROPEAN problem of Putin’s expansionism. Stop relying on the USA to solve the world’s problems!

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

This article is laughable. Our pisspoor ‘leaders’ have failed to recognize ANYTHING since the Communist drive for power actively began in 1960. They failed to recognize the ramp-up of Communist violence in the 1980s. They failed to understand Communist Clinton only changed his evil intent by congressional power …of all those newly ensconced office holders after the largest route in American History cleaning out the ‘old’ congress.
I doubt our useless ‘leaders’ know how to do ONE single thing besides steal from us to enrich themselves.
The ‘old world’ was murdered by those ‘leaders’. God help America now with two powerful Communist countries rising in power……..

Rosemary Gray
Rosemary Gray
2 years ago

Not defending Russia, but the NATO/US gradually edged troops and equipment for military training in Ukraine closer to the Russian border, with Putin warning to stop because our actions made Russia uneasy and provoked defense on their part…but NATO/US kept on nudging them. It’s almost like we continually poked the proverbial bear (pun intended) after it growled and swatted with forewarning before it’s attack.

Biden and his administration brag about our ‘intelligence info’, so NATO/US was not in the dark about the uneasiness created by their encroachment via a country NATO/US will not admit to their organization, and now rejects active defense engagement with. Its as if Ukraine was used to encourage Russia’s aggression, and is now tossed only ammunition to defend themselves, and band aids for their affected citizens.

As per the attached article:
The Russian leader noted that Russia has worried about NATO drills near its borders, pointing at a recent exercise that involved U.S. strategic bombers.
“Strategic bombers, which carry precision weapons and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, were flying as close as 20 kilometers to our border,” Putin said. “That represents a threat for us.”

One of many articles: msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-warns-nato-and-u-s-that-ukraine-encroachment-is-a-red-line-for-russia/ar-AARjk7h

PFArizona
PFArizona
2 years ago

From Newsmax:

Two members of the Ukrainian Parliament are calling for NATO to announce a military no-fly zone over Ukraine.f NATO did impose a no-fly zone it would effectively mean that its members, including the U.S. and U.K., would be authorized to shoot down any Russian aircraft that enter the airspace over Ukraine, Insider noted.

I DONT SEE HOW ELSE THE UKRANAIN PEOPLE CAN BE HELPED. HAVE YOU SEEN THE HORRIFIC IMAGES ON TV?

Putin has invaded another country and I do not see how NATO can sit by and let him kill innocent people. He is a maniac and every bit as evil as Hitler.

Tony Robe
Tony Robe
2 years ago

The story is headlined that we are in a new world. This is because a country attacked another? Have you ever read a page of history? If so, you will find much more than one reference to war. No, we are not in a new world. We are in the same one where war seems to be a natural occurrence. The best reaction to this fact is to be better prepared so that when it happens, the attacker can be punished.

Owen Shrock
Owen Shrock
2 years ago

Great article. We’re in trouble, because our leaders are spineless jellyfish.

It doesn’t give me confidence when I turn on the news and see Commie Joe talking tough but in reality doing nothing. And just this morning I watched B**ch Hillary on MSNBC blaming Trump for what’s going on in Ukraine. She also was talking about how our government needs to start doing things like freezing bank accounts of those that are spreading false information like Trump and his supporters.

This country needs to wake the F up! It’s bad enough foreign adversaries have become embolden and are actively challenging us around the world, but now even our own government has declared war on us. If you think I’m talking out my a$$ just look at everything our so called Commander in Chief has been doing this past year. He’s done absolutely nothing in our best interest. He seems to be more aligned with the interest of China, Russia and Iran than he does this Country.

Owen Shrock
Owen Shrock
2 years ago

Waiting for approval again!!! Maybe it would be easier if AMAC would make a list of issues and words that they deem offensive. That way I can try harder not to offend anyone there anymore.

Veteran
Veteran
2 years ago

“A New World” where the bully takes the wimpy kids lunch during recess, and there no longer is adult supervision on the playground because the designated person is “out to lunch.”

schoooter
schoooter
2 years ago

Why did he have to invade ??! Why couldn’t he just get what he wanted thru negotiation and $ payment??

Kay
Kay
2 years ago

Putin is not going to stop here his plan is to take the Baltic areas and make Soviet Russia dominate like it was in the 60’s. Putin has a dream to bring back what once was and can be again with such weak governments in the World. Biden has no firm principles and we have a very weak leader, so no better time then now to make the move. Shameful

James Thompson
James Thompson
2 years ago

Thousands of American troops protecting borders of other countries around Ukraine and not one guarding our own. Biden sucks. All the way ass hole with a red hot poker! Get the Dems out of DC!

Hujjathullah M.H.B. Sahib
Hujjathullah M.H.B. Sahib
2 years ago

An excellent article by a mystery writer and varied and interesting comments by intelligent and rational Americans. These together only goes to show how truely and evenly polarized the USA is today. But what is the use when American rationality remains struggling at the upper middle to the lowest low levels only in the Democratic camp and very little making it to the upper levels even in the Republican camp. Sane people the world over thought that the world has gone to the arrogant dogs and bitches only to belatedly realize that it has in fact gone today to the disgraceful pigs and swines instead. What America needs today is a strong, no nonsense leader not one who kinkily dips below to listen to the conches on someones’ thighs for policy guidence !

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Were in a Rerun War: relive WW2
o Blitz
o
Civilians in shelters IE London Blitz 1940

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

Once again the pen name Daniel Roman writes a piece for AMAC… This time around he has gotten a little closer to the motivations of Vladimir Putin of Russia…I agree, based on the aerial bombardment unleashed against the Ukraine, Desert Storm it did remind me…George W. Bush along with his Deep State loyalist within a war mongering military took it to the Iraqi’s & in the end Congress stopped him from rolling into Bagdad & sweeping up Hussein…That came a little later whilst he was found quivering in a hole in the ground & ultimately met his fate at the end of a rope, which was unsuccessful on the 1st drop, the 2nd drop reportedly took his head clean off…
So where do we go from here? Putin did in fact invade Ukraine which I repeatedly have said he wouldn’t, go figure…PROPAGANDA is once again in full force for about the last 24 hours or so…
On the theory that Putin does in fact capture Ukraine; Where does this leave Hunter & the Big Guy?
It sounds quite plausible the Biden Regime, aka gangsters, lose all those commissions direct deposited into those off shore accounts, i.e. the well will go dry…
Which brings me to another curiosity; What nation does the Biden regime now turn to to keep the money train rolling? Could it possibly be China? Admittedly, the thought is tantalizing, lol!
Bill… :~)

FJB
FJB
2 years ago

I don’t think anyone doubted Russia could swiftly defeat Ukraine. Germany, France and England need to get off their butts and deal with this EUROPEAN problem of Putin’s expansionism. Stop relying on the USA to solve the world’s problems!

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

This article is laughable. Our pisspoor ‘leaders’ have failed to recognize ANYTHING since the Communist drive for power actively began in 1960. They failed to recognize the ramp-up of Communist violence in the 1980s. They failed to understand Communist Clinton only changed his evil intent by congressional power …of all those newly ensconced office holders after the largest route in American History cleaning out the ‘old’ congress.
I doubt our useless ‘leaders’ know how to do ONE single thing besides steal from us to enrich themselves.
The ‘old world’ was murdered by those ‘leaders’. God help America now with two powerful Communist countries rising in power……..

Rosemary Gray
Rosemary Gray
2 years ago

Not defending Russia, but the NATO/US gradually edged troops and equipment for military training in Ukraine closer to the Russian border, with Putin warning to stop because our actions made Russia uneasy and provoked defense on their part…but NATO/US kept on nudging them. It’s almost like we continually poked the proverbial bear (pun intended) after it growled and swatted with forewarning before it’s attack.

Biden and his administration brag about our ‘intelligence info’, so NATO/US was not in the dark about the uneasiness created by their encroachment via a country NATO/US will not admit to their organization, and now rejects active defense engagement with. Its as if Ukraine was used to encourage Russia’s aggression, and is now tossed only ammunition to defend themselves, and band aids for their affected citizens.

As per the attached article:
The Russian leader noted that Russia has worried about NATO drills near its borders, pointing at a recent exercise that involved U.S. strategic bombers.
“Strategic bombers, which carry precision weapons and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, were flying as close as 20 kilometers to our border,” Putin said. “That represents a threat for us.”

One of many articles: msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-warns-nato-and-u-s-that-ukraine-encroachment-is-a-red-line-for-russia/ar-AARjk7h

PFArizona
PFArizona
2 years ago

From Newsmax:

Two members of the Ukrainian Parliament are calling for NATO to announce a military no-fly zone over Ukraine.f NATO did impose a no-fly zone it would effectively mean that its members, including the U.S. and U.K., would be authorized to shoot down any Russian aircraft that enter the airspace over Ukraine, Insider noted.

I DONT SEE HOW ELSE THE UKRANAIN PEOPLE CAN BE HELPED. HAVE YOU SEEN THE HORRIFIC IMAGES ON TV?

Putin has invaded another country and I do not see how NATO can sit by and let him kill innocent people. He is a maniac and every bit as evil as Hitler.

Tony Robe
Tony Robe
2 years ago

The story is headlined that we are in a new world. This is because a country attacked another? Have you ever read a page of history? If so, you will find much more than one reference to war. No, we are not in a new world. We are in the same one where war seems to be a natural occurrence. The best reaction to this fact is to be better prepared so that when it happens, the attacker can be punished.

Owen Shrock
Owen Shrock
2 years ago

Great article. We’re in trouble, because our leaders are spineless jellyfish.

It doesn’t give me confidence when I turn on the news and see Commie Joe talking tough but in reality doing nothing. And just this morning I watched B**ch Hillary on MSNBC blaming Trump for what’s going on in Ukraine. She also was talking about how our government needs to start doing things like freezing bank accounts of those that are spreading false information like Trump and his supporters.

This country needs to wake the F up! It’s bad enough foreign adversaries have become embolden and are actively challenging us around the world, but now even our own government has declared war on us. If you think I’m talking out my a$$ just look at everything our so called Commander in Chief has been doing this past year. He’s done absolutely nothing in our best interest. He seems to be more aligned with the interest of China, Russia and Iran than he does this Country.

Owen Shrock
Owen Shrock
2 years ago

Waiting for approval again!!! Maybe it would be easier if AMAC would make a list of issues and words that they deem offensive. That way I can try harder not to offend anyone there anymore.

Veteran
Veteran
2 years ago

“A New World” where the bully takes the wimpy kids lunch during recess, and there no longer is adult supervision on the playground because the designated person is “out to lunch.”

schoooter
schoooter
2 years ago

Why did he have to invade ??! Why couldn’t he just get what he wanted thru negotiation and $ payment??

Kay
Kay
2 years ago

Putin is not going to stop here his plan is to take the Baltic areas and make Soviet Russia dominate like it was in the 60’s. Putin has a dream to bring back what once was and can be again with such weak governments in the World. Biden has no firm principles and we have a very weak leader, so no better time then now to make the move. Shameful

James Thompson
James Thompson
2 years ago

Thousands of American troops protecting borders of other countries around Ukraine and not one guarding our own. Biden sucks. All the way ass hole with a red hot poker! Get the Dems out of DC!

Hujjathullah M.H.B. Sahib
Hujjathullah M.H.B. Sahib
2 years ago

An excellent article by a mystery writer and varied and interesting comments by intelligent and rational Americans. These together only goes to show how truely and evenly polarized the USA is today. But what is the use when American rationality remains struggling at the upper middle to the lowest low levels only in the Democratic camp and very little making it to the upper levels even in the Republican camp. Sane people the world over thought that the world has gone to the arrogant dogs and bitches only to belatedly realize that it has in fact gone today to the disgraceful pigs and swines instead. What America needs today is a strong, no nonsense leader not one who kinkily dips below to listen to the conches on someones’ thighs for policy guidence !

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