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Democrats’ Nightmare Polls

Posted on Tuesday, January 25, 2022
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by AMAC Newsline
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Biden

AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

As President Biden stares down the barrel of yet another possible disaster scenario in the Ukraine, things just keep seeming to go from bad to worse for the beleaguered administration. With all the chaos and discontent spreading throughout the country and the world, it’s no surprise that Biden and his party have been on the receiving end of some very, very bad polling news. But with all the numbers and data swirling around from dozens of polling agencies and news outlets, it’s helpful to take a step back to see the full picture of where Biden and Democrats stand with the public today. That picture is a decidedly grim one and, if history is any guide, may get much worse in the months ahead.

Much of the discussion about Biden’s dreadful poll numbers has focused on his ever-slipping approval rating. The most recent Real Clear Politics average shows Biden’s approval at just 41.1%, down from 55% at the beginning of his term. Even more striking is the percentage of Americans who disapprove, which has risen from 36% to 55% in just over a year.

Some polls even found Biden’s approval rating to be as low as 33%,  virtually unprecedented for a president this early in his term. For reference, the average Gallup approval rating of all presidents in January of their second year in office going back to 1938 is 53%. At this point in their presidencies, George H.W. Bush sat at 80% approval, Bill Clinton at 55%, George W. Bush at 84%, Barack Obama at 49%, and even Donald Trump, who even left-wing media outlets now admit was far more popular than his polling indicated throughout his presidency, managed 38% approval. And while Trump had spent his first year as the focus of deranged conspiracy theories and unrelenting media hostility, Joe Biden has been the subject of the opposite: an almost unbroken campaign of media cheerleading, while many of Biden’s fiercest critics are literally censored.

Digging into the numbers, things get even worse for Biden. According to data from a recent NBC poll, Biden’s support has declined from 68% last April to 36% now among Independents, from 83% to 64% among Blacks, from 59% to 48% among Hispanics, from 61% to 51% among women, and from 56% to a shocking 40% among those aged 18 to 34. In short, Biden has lost major ground among every group in his electoral coalition.

It doesn’t look much better when you break things down by issue. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that more than half of registered voters now disapprove of Biden’s handling of the pandemic. Just 36% approve of his handling of the economy, while 54% disapprove. On immigration, those numbers are 33% and 56%, respectively. On foreign policy Biden sits at 38%-49% approve-disapprove, and he sits at 42%-55% on education. Even on climate change, a perennial “good” issue for Democrats, just 33% of registered voters said they approved of how he’s doing.

No matter how you spin it, Americans are not happy with their president. Another Politico/Morning Consult poll asking respondents to “grade” Biden’s performance one year in found that 37% of people would give the president an “F” (including 33% of independents) while just 11% overall and 24% of Democrats would give him an “A.” One CBS News/YouGov survey asked respondents to choose from a list of words describing how Biden’s first year has made them feel. 50% chose “frustrated,” 49% chose “disappointed,” and just 25% chose “satisfied.” By a 70%-28% margin, voters don’t want Biden to run for re-election – a figure that includes just 48% of Democrats. Similarly, just 28% of voters say they have a “great deal of confidence” that Biden can manage the White House, while half of registered voters disagree with the statement that “Joe Biden is in good health.”

It’s worth considering just how stark these numbers are. In our extremely polarized society, it’s hard for a president’s approval rating to fall much below 30%. Since Gallup first started tracking presidential approval ratings in 1939, the lowest the organization has recorded is 19% for George W. Bush in February of 2008 – right at the depth of the financial crisis. Even one-term presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush only bottomed out at 28% and 29%, respectively. In other words, Biden may already be close to as unpopular as a president can feasibly get.

But, Biden apologists might say, surely voters still think the current situation is far preferable to a second Trump term, right? Not so fast. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Trump currently leads Biden by five points (49%-44%). Trump also leads other potential Democratic nominees Hillary Clinton (51%-41%) and Kamala Harris (51%-40%).

With the midterm elections just around the corner, Congressional Democrats aren’t faring much better than the President. A recent poll from the Trafalgar Group has Republicans ahead of Democrats 55.7% to 42.2% on the generic ballot, with just 2.1% undecided. Notably, other polls have found much smaller margins for Republicans –Real Clear Politics has the average at 44.5%-42.1%.

But even these numbers should be alarming for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress this November. According to data from recent elections, Republicans tend to fare better in Congressional elections in terms of seats actually won than their national vote share would suggest In 2020, for example, the median U.S. House District was about 2.1 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole. What this means in practice is that Democrats need to win the national House vote (for which the generic ballot is a reasonable proxy) by at least two points, and many poll watchers say it is more than that. Thus, Republicans have real reason to be optimistic, even in light of recent Democratic wins in redistricting fights and aggressive gerrymandering of blue states.

Biden’s approval rating also bodes ill for Democrats’ chances in the House this fall. In 2006, when President Bush’s approval-disapproval rating was a net -19.7, Republicans lost 30 House seats. In 2018, with Trump’s approval rating 11 points underwater, Republicans lost 40 seats. In the famous 2010 “shellacking,” Democrats lost 63 seats when Obama’s approval-disapproval was just net -4.3%. Today, Biden’s approval-disapproval rating stands at -14.

The story gets even worse for Democrats in the Senate, where a net loss of just one seat will hand Republicans control of the chamber. According to a model developed by Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics that has predicted the outcome of the Senate contest within one seat in each of the last four elections, a Republican-controlled Senate becomes the most likely scenario once Biden’s approval drops below 48%. At 42%, the model “envisions virtually no chance for Democrats to hold the Senate.”

But perhaps the most unnoticed alarm bell for Democrats long term is the drastic change in party identification. Over the course of 2021, Gallup found that number went from a nine-point Democratic advantage (fairly standard in most years) to a five-point Republican lead. That 14-point shift is the largest ever recorded and suggests that Americans don’t just disapprove of the job Democrats are doing–they’re abandoning the party en masse. Such an exodus raises the question of whether Americans aren’t just fed up with Biden himself, but the entire radical direction of the Democratic Party.

Given the overwhelming evidence that the public does not like the way things have been going, one might expect Biden and the Democrats to pivot back toward the center. But the President and his party appear wholly unwilling or unable to do so. As Biden put it quite bluntly in his press conference last week: “I don’t believe the polls.” If recent history is a guide, he’d be right not to—but for a different reason. He is, in all likelihood, much less popular than even his dismal numbers indicate.  

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Alvin Chipmunk
Alvin Chipmunk
2 years ago

The long term is very important. It is important to win back the House and Senate. It is even more important to keep them for the long term. If it keeps or gains more for Republicans than an R+5, Biden will certainly be in trouble come 2024.

Wayne
Wayne
2 years ago

Bad polling numbers for democrats is very good for America. Cheers!

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
2 years ago

The only “nightmare scenario” I see is the fact Joe Brandon is POTUS.

DanM
DanM
2 years ago

The socialists are putting all their energy into a federal takeover of elections now. Their only hope is to stuff ballot boxes again this year. They must also get more illegal aliens spread out and signed up to vote.

Duane
Duane
2 years ago

Single digits coming fast for this elite thug totalitarian. Hey, but that’s what we get when an election is stolen. A huge red tsunami coming also. The National Populists in our country have figured it out. The People are the Government and Sovereign!

Karen
Karen
2 years ago

Does anything happen when the polls register “0”? We can only wish.

Allen
Allen
2 years ago

The major problem with the Democrats is the believe how to fix a problem is throw more money at it

Elsa Aguirre
Elsa Aguirre
2 years ago

How stupid this demented person in the WH, after scamming 30+million $$$ from China, Russia and other countries, the Biden clan would just enjoy life i.e. lay in a hammock, holding a drink in a remote island. I would it done it!!!
LOL!!!!

Backwoods
Backwoods
2 years ago

I’d like to know the 28% that gave Bumbling Braindead Beijing Biden an A.

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

The final sentence of this article summed it up perfectly, i.e. ” He is, in all likelihood, much less popular than even his dismal numbers indicate. ” Does this matter to JRB personally?, I doubt it very seriously because he has already forgotten the subject point…
Biden will NOT be running again in any capacity, period. He got his RING as a make believe potus because his handlers made it so & now they are pretty much done with both him & his fake vp…
Trump won…
Bill… :~)

Marie Langley
Marie Langley
2 years ago

We all know who’s running the show here. It’s Obama and all his cronies. Psaki even slipped and almost said it. To all the people who voted for this clown, SHAME ON YOU!!!!!!!!!

Marie Langley
Marie Langley
2 years ago

Here we go again, another Democrat president is getting us into another war. Putin would’ve NEVER done this under Trump’s watch. It’s so shameful and we are doomed as a country.

Nick Patriot
Nick Patriot
2 years ago

I have to laugh at most of these comments. The USA going to hell in a hand basket doesn’t matter to Biden because Obama is running the show. These policies are on purpose by design. And it doesn’t matter who votes for who if you cheat. And they do! And the Republicans basically do nothing but lip service. Stalin was right. It’s who counts the votes that matters.

Larry Curly and Joe
Larry Curly and Joe
2 years ago

No matter – Joey doesn’t pay attention to the polls. And Jen Psaki told him he was doing great!

william francis
william francis
2 years ago

The democrats have been invaded by many who are clearly only interested the demise of America.

Sadly watch the news, raging anti-Americans in government doing well to destroy America, no police anymore in many cities, education a disaster, a national economic failure, energy efforts to stop American growth, world wide view of America is that our goose is cooked. They may be right.

Drue
Drue
2 years ago

Try to find someone who voted for Biden. No one will admit to being that stupid. This past election was a travesty. The American people are suffering under an inept, clueless old man.

Brandon Von Putzo
Brandon Von Putzo
2 years ago

Democrats have become become the Agent Elizabeth Keen of politics…yes they are strong and oh so confident in every decision they make despite being wrong 98 percent of the time, yet so desperately annoying that nobody cared when she was cut from the show.

Andrew P
Andrew P
2 years ago

What is this senile clown going to do if there is a real crisis? Russia is going to take Ukraine. Everyone understands that. It is a done deal. Dementia Joe will go through the motions of sanctions, wagging his finger on TV, or whatever. But what if the Russians keep going into the Baltics and beyond? Putin has been waiting for decades for a US President as senile, stupid, weak, corrupt, and craven as Biden. He has the opportunity of a lifetime to put the USSR back together again. I can’t see how this clown can lead the US in a real nuclear war. We will lose – badly.

Judy
Judy
2 years ago

AMERICANS ARE NOT HAPPY WITH BIDEN AND HIS PUPPETEERS!!!
BIDEN IS NOT THE LEGITIMATE PRESIDENT OF THIS COUNTRY!!!

Sean Richman
Sean Richman
2 years ago

We as a country wouldn’t be in this totally terrible condition if TRUMP was still our president instead of”SLOPPY JOEY”and cult.

Becky
Becky
2 years ago

We aren’t happy with the COMMUNISM and FASCISM the old democrat Party is drowning America under.
WHEN will you ‘journalists’ start correctly labeling the issues?
We are fed up with all the lies told daily.
We are fed up with most all ‘politicians’ allowing America to be murdered by flooding us with the world’s FILTH.
We are finished with the whole stinking, lying, filthy bunch of you who should be pro-America and are not.

Rik
Rik
2 years ago

Comrade President Jackass Josef Biden is reaping the poll numbers HE DESERVES!

Rich M.
Rich M.
2 years ago

So he couldn’t handle troops in Afghanistan; Couldn’t even get them out without that turning into a disaster. Now Bidumb wants to go to war with Russia. Over the Ukraine. Ugh. <facepalm> I have Ukranian ancestors…lord knows I don’t want Russian troops in Ukraine. However — what exactly are we as a nation prepared to do (alone) ?

BAE
BAE
2 years ago

I cannot even look at the awful man (Biden) anymore. Now a war in Ukraine? Say what, Joe Biden and his son Hunter didn’t get enough money out of Ukraine and they are angry? Could this president be worse? Please GOD don’t let any of our young men die for this nasty corrupt fool !!!

Ed G
Ed G
2 years ago

FJB

joe mchugh
joe mchugh
2 years ago

A drooling, wheel-chair bound Joe Biden, or zipper-oriented Kamala Harris will still be in the Oval Office in 2023, but not to worry. There are just 286 days left until November 8th, 2022 when the meaning of all these polls will come home to roost for the Democrats.

The entertaining part of all of this controversy? The Democrats will become more and more unhinged, and their desperate actions will provide ever more amusement for the non-liberals in America. It won’t matter who occupies the White House. The Marxists, …..I mean Democrats, will be shouting at the sky about their lost opportunity to bring about a Utopia called the socialist Perdition, with them in charge, of course.

Things are just going to get better and better from now on.

Paul
Paul
2 years ago

“No matter how you spin it, Americans are not happy with their president.” – Actually he is NOT ‘our president’. He is more of an impostor of NWO, implanted into White House by FORCE, not by will of the people/voters. Do you remember his inauguration day? – How many people were there in Washington to celebrate – as they did in every presidential inauguration..I didn`t see 10 people there. But I saw THOUSANDS of police or were those special paramilitary forces?..Something like that has NEVER happened in any legally people elected POTUS inauguration.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

Polls are like reading the tides……..how high, how low….how fast , how slow……While many tend to
put a lot of stock in polls….remember this….they are easily manipulated, often based on biased questions and interpreted for the most part by people with an agenda behind their projections and predictions. Polls do show trends, but don’t put any money on them….they are as often incorrect as they are correct. If you live by polls, you will suffer by them. The better choice is to cite the past history of the individual, group or organization to see their future based on their present actions as they correspond or even conflict with their history. Leopards do not change their spots……and they lie.

Repent!
Repent!
2 years ago

Who is the man (or woman or cabal) behind the curtain? Reveal yourselves!

Joseph K Ptak
Joseph K Ptak
2 years ago

Most importantly…after the 2022 election, there will be a seismic change in the makeup of the Congressional Democrat leadership. So far, 29 Democrat Congressmen have chosen not to run for re-election again this year…versus just 14 Republicans. A Civil War will ensue among the Democrats in Congress. Nancy Pelosi will be forced to retire by the socialist Democrats and possibly Chuck Schumer.

Ted Bower
Ted Bower
2 years ago

I can’t believe the morons that still like 46, worst president in American history. 25th amendment please, kamala will be too scared to make any waves because she’s so incompetent. Get this idiot out of the white house!!!!

Pat
Pat
2 years ago

As things stand currently, I have NO reason to believe the Democrats won’t “CHEAT” AGAIN … and in every election going forward. There were NO consequences to their CRIME, so why wouldn’t they do it again. It doesn’t matter who runs for political office if our elections fail to be totally transparent, permitting poll monitors as per law, thoroughly secured and election integrity fully insured. Otherwise, the entire costly process is an exercise in futility.

Kay
Kay
2 years ago

If Russia has the means to destroy our communications system we are in bad shape. Biden got rid of every idea President Trump had because he could not stand to have any good ideas.

Ted Tedstone
Ted Tedstone
2 years ago

Well, with all due respect to Sean Trende, did he calculate the DNC cheat machine into his Senate evaluation?

Larkenson
Larkenson
2 years ago

Anti-White liberals and respectable conservatives that support massive third-world immigration and FORCED assimilation for EVERY White country and ONLY White countries say that they are anti-racist, but their policies will lead to a world with no White people i.e White Genocide.
Anti-racist is just a code word for anti-White.

BillCarson
BillCarson
2 years ago

Much, much lousier president than Carter, and I remember Carter very well.

johnh
johnh
2 years ago

Hannity on Fox was way out of line last night. I know that Hannity is a big Trump fan, but nobody should belittle the United States in such a disparaging way. Hannity said Putin thinks it a big joke that Biden will send 8500 troops to area & that Putin knows that Biden & US are weak now. No American should present our Defense Department & country in terms like this. Also, has Hannity been in military service? If not, then support our troops and do not badmouth them. Hannity made it sound like US is sending a mosquito to confront Russia. And Hannity said he can topple Russia economy by taking away oil exports to US and that will hurt Russia. Right now USA exports about 206000 bbls per day from Russia (twice as much as year earlier) and someone should tell Hannity that someone else will step up and buy this if it is on market. Hannity should apologize for comments negative comments regarding USA.

Barb
Barb
2 years ago

No “number grades” from me, just “alphabet grades”. I give him an F all the way around and down. I guess this is why none of the polls ask for my opinion. When Biden mentioned that no troops would be going towards Ukraine, I didn’t believe him, I knew he was lying, and knew he would reverse course. God help all those troops. Foxtrot Juliet Bravo

Larry LaRosa
Larry LaRosa
2 years ago

After making Russia an oil power ot is hard for me to believe that we will have a war with Russia.
Does Europe want to get its oil cut off or oil price raised?

Marti
Marti
2 years ago

The words “Democrats” and “Disaster” are synonymous and may eve be redundant.

pragmatic_In_NH
pragmatic_In_NH
2 years ago

in older days this was known as wag the dog

i dont believe that the president ( i despise calling him that ) will take us to war but do not put anything past this administration for the sake of retaining power. Mr Bidens corrupted family, lack of personal discipline and disrespect of THIS country will not hold him back from anything for his personal gain. we have a badly demented miserable president, a wildly incompetent VP, with 3rd in line a crazily partisan speaker of the house in line IF Mr Biden fails. we are not ” Doomed ” but severly compromised. never in my 60+ years do i recall the country weaker than it is today. the Ukraine is target of Russia, Mr Biden is trying to find a way to support that country as HE and his family have received payoffs- Burisma anyone?

Leonard Stuart
Leonard Stuart
2 years ago

Those of us who still have some integrity left, know that the election was stolen. Why is anyone surprised regarding the Democrats have people forgotten they are the party of the KKK
, and why do so many Jewish people embrace the Democrats. Biden was always A STUPID IDIOT he is just a puppet. Can`t they see he has Dementia. At this time, we are no better than a Banana Republic. LS

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Hooray the demise of the Dems in sight

Pete from St Pete
Pete from St Pete
2 years ago

Your writer points out serious erosion of support for Biden among Blacks, Hispanics, women and Independents and I would include the media. What is a woke party going to do in face of such discouraging statistics? Nominate Michelle Obama and immediately those gaps will close. Even though she has no experience or real qualifications many disillusioned liberals would jump on her bandwagon, especially if her opponent is Donald Trump. Please don’t pop any champagne bottles just yet.

Charles Castiglione
Charles Castiglione
2 years ago

To be clear, A war with Russia or any other nation is a false flag by the DEMS to pull all the attention from the screw-ups thay have been making. Distractions is what they thrive on only now they are seeing the people have been on point more and more, The DEMS and the DEEP STATE are in miserable condition to say the least. They will not survive.

jocko
jocko
2 years ago

POLLS MEAN NOTHING. THE libs WILL JUST CHEAT IN THE ELECTIONS AGAIN AND they WILL NOT BE PROSECUTED LIKE ALWAYS

Mimi
Mimi
2 years ago

I wouldn’t get ahead of myself here by any means. While the Democrats are doing everything in their power to absolutely eviscerate Republican districts in their states (CA from 11 to 4, NY from 8 to 3, Illinois down to 1 and eliminating them entirely in MD,) Republicans aren’t trying to be “fairer” so that they aren’t slandered as racists. Thus for instance, in MO where they could redistrict into a 7 to one advantage for Republicans it will more likely be something like 4 to 4 or 5 to 3. Same in AZ, and same in FL. A pox on the RINOs that refuse to fight.

Luke
Luke
2 years ago

Even if the polls are half right, the numbers still demonstrate fraudulent election results. Joe Biden didn’t WIN anything. It was handed to him by cheating and hatred. Nancy Pelosi is nothing short of an animal complete with every imaginable vile characteristic of a rabid dog. SHE is the one who orchestrated the demise of Donald Trump’s presidency. Her hatred knows no bounds.

Garye
Garye
2 years ago

A poll with people who can actually think would put the democrats number below 10%. Let’s call that the idiot factor, still a few in the grouping would support marxist democrats!

Barb304
Barb304
2 years ago

This ‘president’ is a nincompoop. War with Russia, really? Like we don’t have enough trouble already? Inflation way up and stock market way down. RIDICULOUS!! Sanctions on Russia yes. Sending troops NO!!!

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