Republicans appear to be in a strong position to take back control of the Senate in 2024, where they only need to flip two seats, with numerous vulnerable Democrats set to appear on the ballot amid a contentious presidential election.
West Virginia provides Senate Republicans with their best chance, as Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to seek reelection in the state that went for former President Donald Trump by nearly 40 points in 2020. Other pick-up opportunities are in red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as presidential battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
“First, I do think we shouldn’t underestimate the power of incumbency. Senate incumbents are doing quite well these days and the best targets, even in red states, won’t be pushovers. They will have unlimited money,” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That having been said, I think [West Virginia] is obviously gone for the Democrats, meaning at worst the Senate is 50-50. That puts pressure on Dems to hold all of these: Ohio, Montana, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Plus the Vice Presidency.”
“That’s a great opening hand for the GOP in this cycle,” Jennings added
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, has been largely focused on the races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, all of which Trump won in 2020. Additionally, the group is targeting five swing states that President Joe Biden won by 3 points or less — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Trump is currently leading in the RealClearPolitics average for a hypothetical rematch against Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.
After a failed red wave in 2022, the NRSC decided to get involved in the primary process and focus on recruiting candidates this cycle.
Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, warned that while Republicans “have a very favorable map,” their “candidates matter.”
“Republicans threw away winnable races in the last few years with candidates who were less appealing in the general election than they were with a populist base,” McHenry told the DCNF.
The NRSC has recruited Republicans in Montana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and West Virginia, and is currently encouraging one to run in Wisconsin.
“Senate Republicans have a great map, but we can’t fall in love with the map. Incumbent Senators are extremely difficult to defeat, so we prioritized recruiting America First candidates who can appeal to our pro-Trump base and independent voters,” NRSC Chairman Steve Daines told the DCNF. “We are working closely with President Trump to elect a Republican majority who will confirm his appointments and back his America First agenda. It is critical that when President Trump picks up the phone to confirm a Supreme Court Justice that it isn’t Chuck Schumer on the other end of the line.”
West Virginia
Manchin, who has held the seat since 2010, is forcing Senate Democrats to go on defense in 2024. The senator is weighing a third-party presidential bid, and could run on centrist organization No Labels’ “Unity Ticket” next year.
Following his announcement, The Cook Political Report quickly switched Manchin’s seat from the “Toss Up” column to “Solid R.”
Republican Gov. Jim Justice is the NRSC-endorsed candidate, who also has Trump’s backing, and raised $1.5 million for the race this year, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Rep. Alex Mooney is also vying for the GOP nomination, but has raised less funds and has been polling behind Justice.
A Research America poll released Sept. 1 found Justice leading Mooney in the GOP primary by 30 points.
Montana
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term, and has already raised a significant amount of cash.
The senator brought in over $15 million this year, and currently has $13 million cash on hand. The NRSC recruited former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy for the seat, who has already brought in $2.9 million with $1.1 million in campaign cash.
GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale, who ran against Tester and lost by 3.5 points in 2018, is considering another bid. Rosendale’s congressional campaign has raised $904,000 this year and currently has $1.7 million in hard dollars.
Earlier polling suggested Rosendale would win in a Republican primary by double digits, but a recent Co/Efficient poll found the former Navy SEAL up by 8 points for a head-to-head matchup. An Emerson College poll released in mid-October indicated Tester would beat Sheehy by 4 points, but a J.L. Partners survey from two months before found the senator losing by several points to both Republicans.
The Cook Political Report recently switched Tester’s seat from “Lean D” to “Toss Up,” joining other Senate races in Ohio and Arizona.
“This is the cycle where they finally beat Jon Tester,” said McHenry. “His repeated votes with Joe Biden will undo him this time around, especially if Biden is the Democratic nominee.”
Tester votes with Biden 91% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight’s estimate.
Ohio
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has held his seat since 2007, is running in what could be his toughest race yet.
The NRSC is remaining neutral in the primary that is chock-full of prominent Republicans — businessman Bernie Moreno, who recently drew Trump’s backing, state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Moreno and Dolan both ran in the 2022 Republican primary for the seat now held by GOP Sen. J.D. Vance.
The race has already become quite expensive as the three GOP candidates attempt to compete with Brown’s fundraising, totaling to $14.4 million this year with $11.2 million in the bank. Dolan has brought in $8.8 million compared to Moreno‘s $6.4 million, while LaRose, who got into the race most recently, has raised just over $1 million.
McHenry argued that the GOP should be able to pick up this seat, but cautioned that “the candidate really does matter.”
“Some of these states are just tough for Dems in a presidential cycle. Ohio and Montana for instance,” said Jennings. “Their states are obviously going to be tough for Biden. And they may not be able to escape the vortex even with unlimited money.”
Arizona
Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in 2022, has yet to decide whether she’s running for a second term.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has already launched a bid for the seat, while several Republicans are vying for the nomination, including Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.
The NRSC hasn’t endorsed in the Arizona race, but the chairman has commended Lake for being “one of the most talented politicians we have running in the 2024 cycle.”
If Sinema runs, and Gallego and Lake are their respective party nominees, a contentious three-way race would ensue. Some polling has shown Gallego winning in such a scenario, while other surveys show Lake ahead.
Regardless, the polling largely finds Sinema coming in third, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.
McHenry believes this is another strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as Sinema could split the Democratic vote, he told the DCNF.
Pennsylvania
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is running for a fourth term in the upper chamber.
NRSC-recruit David McCormick is the only Republican in the race. The former hedge-fund CEO ran for the Senate GOP nomination in 2022 and narrowly lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who now-Democratic Sen. John Fetterman went on to beat.
Casey has already raised $7.7 million this year, and has $7.4 million cash on hand. McCormick’s fundraising numbers are not yet available.
Polling largely suggests Casey would beat McCormick in the general election. The seat is characterized by The Cook Political Report as in the “Lean D” column, along with other races in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Democratic voters in the state have been leaving the party in droves for the GOP, according to voter registration data for 2023. Over 35,000 Democratic voters in Pennsylvania flipped Republican this year, compared to only 15,622 in the GOP who switched sides.
“There’s also a decent chance of winning in Pennsylvania as the GOP registration there is picking up strongly and Dave McCormick will be a strong candidate against the weakened career politician Bob Casey, Jr,” Mark Weaver, a national veteran Republican strategist, told the DCNF.
Michigan
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who has held the seat for over two decades, is retiring after 2024.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, and has reportedly expressed concern over sharing the ballot with Biden.
While several Republicans are vying for the seat, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is the NRSC’s pick. Former GOP Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig are also in the running.
Polling indicates Slotkin would currently beat all of the Republican candidates, but the most recent survey found the margins closest against both Rogers and Craig at 2 points.
“Michigan is one to watch. A solid Republican candidate should win that race with Trump (or even better, Nikki Haley) on the ballot against Joe Biden,” said McHenry. “Joe Biden’s support for Israel is the right thing morally and in a national security perspective, but Michigan is one of the states that it might hurt him politically as a swing state with a substantial Arab-American population.”
Nevada
Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for a second term.
Though numerous Republicans are running for the nomination, the NRSC tapped Army veteran Sam Brown, who came in second for the 2022 GOP Senate primary attempting to oust Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.
Rosen has already raised $7.8 million for her reelection campaign, and has $8.8 million in the bank. Brown, who jumped in the race in July, has brought in $1.2 million with just under $1 million cash on hand.
A Tarrance Group survey, sponsored by the NRSC and released in early November, found Rosen up by 5 points against Brown for a general, and the Army veteran led the GOP primary field with a plurality.
Wisconsin
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has served in the upper chamber since 2013.
While no Republican has yet to jump in the race, the NRSC is recruiting GOP businessman Eric Hovde. The Republican ran for Senate in 2012 but lost the GOP nomination to Tommy Thompson, who Baldwin beat in the general.
Baldwin has raked in $8.6 million this cycle with $6.8 million in hard dollars. There is no polling yet available for a matchup between the two.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pointed the DCNF toward an early November memo upon request for comment about the difficult map they face in 2024.
“One year from the election, three factors are contributing to Senate Democrats’ strong position to defend our majority: the strength of our candidates and campaigns, flawed Republicans fighting in vicious primaries, and the continued resonance of issues like women’s right to make our own health care decisions,” the memo reads.
Reprinted with Permission from Conservative Daily News – By Mary Lou Masters
As usual, everything is wishful thinking. Which party will put up the best candidate that the people will vote for and rely on to do the job correctly? There has been and still is too much cheating and no correction to state’s voting laws therefore this will make the forth coming election another possible shamble to deal with. The Founding Fathers are still rolling in their graves about the evil path that the nation has taken and continues to follow to its destruction. The Democrats have the advantage with all the ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS that living free on our tax money and will be allowed to vote in the Blue states.
Oh, have we fixed the voting system so there won’t be stolen races?
How GOP can take Senate:
Dump the RINOs
Never Trumpers
DC RNC Estd
Hire New Blood
Vote in MAGA
Solved
The only map that’s needed is to stop mail-in balloting and stop using Dominion tabulation machines. Between 2018 to 2022, the Democrats have stolen at least 5 Senate seats. That coupled with dirty money DNC super PACs using nothing but hate filled campaign ads against Republican candidates. These are are full of false and extremely misleading content. PACs can lie and slander their opponents, and they do. They can’t be held accountable for the “Misinformation” . The Supreme Court needs to revisit their ruling on PACs
As long as McConnell stays out of which rep candidate to support like he did in 2022. He supported a Republican candidate running against a Republican candidate in Alaska. Just so she would be re-elected and he would stay minority leader. It was a selfish decision. He doesn’t give a lick about the country as long as he stays in power in the senate. He is not a Republican, in name only. I have stopped supporting NRSC and send money to the rep candidates directly. McConnell has to go. I am not supporting such a narcissistic person. He has single handedly seen to it that we lost the majority in the senate, by diverting millions of dollars to Alaska and let the other candidates drown. Come on you RINOS step up and save America. Polls are polls which we found out in 2022. Anything can happen and we have a big satanic tyranny to defeat.
In Michigan, I worry about mail-in ballots W/O signature verification.
All this is a moot point, unless we can assure that both no illegal immigrants (ha ha dreamers) are voting, democrats aren’t voting two or three times each, and the cemeteries aren’t filled with active voters …. as was the case in 2020.
If we have learned nothing in the last three years it is that politics is politics. To get any real change would require not only getting a Republican majority but ousting the RINOs as well. Too many are willing to cave to the money and are more interested in staying in office than serving the people. Unfortunately, those two things are rarely achieved the same way these days.
Are you just kidding us? There is no such thing as a map for republicans. Until republicans start lying, stealing, cheating, and just be as morally corrupt as liberals, there is no map to follow. The liberals will remap any map republicans can come up with!
I really don’t like articles like this at this early stage of the 2024 Presidential election cycle. Why? Primarily because never-Trumper, RNC chairperson Ronna McDaniel is still in position as the so-called head of the Republican Party to f*ck-up the entire 2024 election for the GOP (like she did in ‘18 & ‘20). She’s the reason I no longer make ANY donations to the RNC, the NRSC, the NRCC or most individual politicians’ solicitations. She been a disaster for the GOP and it’ll never change until she’s been ridden out of the Party “on a rail.” She can (and will) do a lot of damage between now and November ‘24.
Did anyone notice the millions of dollars Democrats have already raised, compared to the amounts GOP candidates have? Betcha old Soros has been dishing it out like crazy so the dems have a jumpstart in their campaigns and can flood voters with their propaganda early on!
Every human is flawed. There will be no perfect democrats either. We don’t need perfect people. We need honest patriots.
The million, no, actually, multi-TRILLION dollar question: “if Republicans get control of Congress, what will they do with it?” We’ve heard the promise before… Border security? The national debt? Terrorism? Inflation? Home/rental prices? Not new problems and none solved before… after the same promises!
I agree that wva is the inly case where odds favor the R. Im in ohio which, like Montana is apparently shizoid; a red state consistently electing lefties to one of their senate seats. Well, tester sports a crewcut which seems to be enough. In ohio , lefty brown downplays his true self when campaigning. On issues like gun control he manages to convince his base hes a centrist then goes on to vote with the hard left. The core problem is the robotic nature of voters.
Wisconsin has to remove do-nothing Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Tammy is an obvious back-bencher who has done nothing in her senate career. Hovde would make an excellent senator. If Tommy Thompson (a popular former governor) had not gotten in the way Hovde would have beaten the inept Baldwin in the general election.
Without a will there is no way
HOW ABOUT ALL THE CHEATING, LYING, BIG MONEY BUYING VOTES, BALLOT HARVESTING, DUPLICATE VOTING, DEAD PEOPLE VOTES.
HAVE YOU DONE ANYTHING, I MEAN ANYTHING TO STOP THE CHEATING BY THE LOWLIFE FILTHY DEMONCRATS?????
NONE OF THIS MATTERS IF THE ELECTIONS ARE NOT FAIR, PERIOD!!!!!!!
We need a version of the Roman idea of DECIMATION. No blood shed, but rid the federal government of one-tenth of every swamp-dwelling politician/employee/department/and agency. Start with the departments that are not doing their jobs. e.g. Education, Homeland Security, and the Department of Justice.
Typically, the GOP is pushing anyone NOT Donald Trump for the presidency. Meanwhile, the Democrats are swimming in funds to BUY their seats yet again in 2024. Where does all their money come from? When will voters reject the purchasing of positions of power, and elect men and women of integrity who will SERVE their constituents??!!
Stop voter/ballot fraud! I live in AZ and have seen and dealt with fraud running campaigns. Not sure why Republicans and honest Democrats won’t fight to clean up our elections!? That said, Kari Lake is a great campaigner. The people love her. She has already won statewide and will win again in the race for US Senate if we can decrease the fraud!
Republicans are in trouble until they quit calling the people in their party RINOs ! I want to be able to vote for the best side & not just a straight party line. Also, wake up & realize that the Democrats have been dangling a carrot & Republican party keeps falling for these tactics!
Upset with what you wrote in Michigan!!
“Michigan is one to watch. A solid Republican candidate should win that race with Trump (or even better, Nikki Haley) on the ballot against Joe Biden”
WAR MONGER Nikki Haley is better then TRUMP, that is sickening!!
AMAC is supposed to be Conservative, backing LIBERAL Nikki is a TOTAL SHOCK ????