AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
As President Biden stares down the barrel of yet another possible disaster scenario in the Ukraine, things just keep seeming to go from bad to worse for the beleaguered administration. With all the chaos and discontent spreading throughout the country and the world, it’s no surprise that Biden and his party have been on the receiving end of some very, very bad polling news. But with all the numbers and data swirling around from dozens of polling agencies and news outlets, it’s helpful to take a step back to see the full picture of where Biden and Democrats stand with the public today. That picture is a decidedly grim one and, if history is any guide, may get much worse in the months ahead.
Much of the discussion about Biden’s dreadful poll numbers has focused on his ever-slipping approval rating. The most recent Real Clear Politics average shows Biden’s approval at just 41.1%, down from 55% at the beginning of his term. Even more striking is the percentage of Americans who disapprove, which has risen from 36% to 55% in just over a year.
Some polls even found Biden’s approval rating to be as low as 33%, virtually unprecedented for a president this early in his term. For reference, the average Gallup approval rating of all presidents in January of their second year in office going back to 1938 is 53%. At this point in their presidencies, George H.W. Bush sat at 80% approval, Bill Clinton at 55%, George W. Bush at 84%, Barack Obama at 49%, and even Donald Trump, who even left-wing media outlets now admit was far more popular than his polling indicated throughout his presidency, managed 38% approval. And while Trump had spent his first year as the focus of deranged conspiracy theories and unrelenting media hostility, Joe Biden has been the subject of the opposite: an almost unbroken campaign of media cheerleading, while many of Biden’s fiercest critics are literally censored.
Digging into the numbers, things get even worse for Biden. According to data from a recent NBC poll, Biden’s support has declined from 68% last April to 36% now among Independents, from 83% to 64% among Blacks, from 59% to 48% among Hispanics, from 61% to 51% among women, and from 56% to a shocking 40% among those aged 18 to 34. In short, Biden has lost major ground among every group in his electoral coalition.
It doesn’t look much better when you break things down by issue. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that more than half of registered voters now disapprove of Biden’s handling of the pandemic. Just 36% approve of his handling of the economy, while 54% disapprove. On immigration, those numbers are 33% and 56%, respectively. On foreign policy Biden sits at 38%-49% approve-disapprove, and he sits at 42%-55% on education. Even on climate change, a perennial “good” issue for Democrats, just 33% of registered voters said they approved of how he’s doing.
No matter how you spin it, Americans are not happy with their president. Another Politico/Morning Consult poll asking respondents to “grade” Biden’s performance one year in found that 37% of people would give the president an “F” (including 33% of independents) while just 11% overall and 24% of Democrats would give him an “A.” One CBS News/YouGov survey asked respondents to choose from a list of words describing how Biden’s first year has made them feel. 50% chose “frustrated,” 49% chose “disappointed,” and just 25% chose “satisfied.” By a 70%-28% margin, voters don’t want Biden to run for re-election – a figure that includes just 48% of Democrats. Similarly, just 28% of voters say they have a “great deal of confidence” that Biden can manage the White House, while half of registered voters disagree with the statement that “Joe Biden is in good health.”
It’s worth considering just how stark these numbers are. In our extremely polarized society, it’s hard for a president’s approval rating to fall much below 30%. Since Gallup first started tracking presidential approval ratings in 1939, the lowest the organization has recorded is 19% for George W. Bush in February of 2008 – right at the depth of the financial crisis. Even one-term presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush only bottomed out at 28% and 29%, respectively. In other words, Biden may already be close to as unpopular as a president can feasibly get.
But, Biden apologists might say, surely voters still think the current situation is far preferable to a second Trump term, right? Not so fast. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Trump currently leads Biden by five points (49%-44%). Trump also leads other potential Democratic nominees Hillary Clinton (51%-41%) and Kamala Harris (51%-40%).
With the midterm elections just around the corner, Congressional Democrats aren’t faring much better than the President. A recent poll from the Trafalgar Group has Republicans ahead of Democrats 55.7% to 42.2% on the generic ballot, with just 2.1% undecided. Notably, other polls have found much smaller margins for Republicans –Real Clear Politics has the average at 44.5%-42.1%.
But even these numbers should be alarming for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress this November. According to data from recent elections, Republicans tend to fare better in Congressional elections in terms of seats actually won than their national vote share would suggest In 2020, for example, the median U.S. House District was about 2.1 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole. What this means in practice is that Democrats need to win the national House vote (for which the generic ballot is a reasonable proxy) by at least two points, and many poll watchers say it is more than that. Thus, Republicans have real reason to be optimistic, even in light of recent Democratic wins in redistricting fights and aggressive gerrymandering of blue states.
Biden’s approval rating also bodes ill for Democrats’ chances in the House this fall. In 2006, when President Bush’s approval-disapproval rating was a net -19.7, Republicans lost 30 House seats. In 2018, with Trump’s approval rating 11 points underwater, Republicans lost 40 seats. In the famous 2010 “shellacking,” Democrats lost 63 seats when Obama’s approval-disapproval was just net -4.3%. Today, Biden’s approval-disapproval rating stands at -14.
The story gets even worse for Democrats in the Senate, where a net loss of just one seat will hand Republicans control of the chamber. According to a model developed by Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics that has predicted the outcome of the Senate contest within one seat in each of the last four elections, a Republican-controlled Senate becomes the most likely scenario once Biden’s approval drops below 48%. At 42%, the model “envisions virtually no chance for Democrats to hold the Senate.”
But perhaps the most unnoticed alarm bell for Democrats long term is the drastic change in party identification. Over the course of 2021, Gallup found that number went from a nine-point Democratic advantage (fairly standard in most years) to a five-point Republican lead. That 14-point shift is the largest ever recorded and suggests that Americans don’t just disapprove of the job Democrats are doing–they’re abandoning the party en masse. Such an exodus raises the question of whether Americans aren’t just fed up with Biden himself, but the entire radical direction of the Democratic Party.
Given the overwhelming evidence that the public does not like the way things have been going, one might expect Biden and the Democrats to pivot back toward the center. But the President and his party appear wholly unwilling or unable to do so. As Biden put it quite bluntly in his press conference last week: “I don’t believe the polls.” If recent history is a guide, he’d be right not to—but for a different reason. He is, in all likelihood, much less popular than even his dismal numbers indicate.
The long term is very important. It is important to win back the House and Senate. It is even more important to keep them for the long term. If it keeps or gains more for Republicans than an R+5, Biden will certainly be in trouble come 2024.
Bad polling numbers for democrats is very good for America. Cheers!
The only “nightmare scenario” I see is the fact Joe Brandon is POTUS.
The socialists are putting all their energy into a federal takeover of elections now. Their only hope is to stuff ballot boxes again this year. They must also get more illegal aliens spread out and signed up to vote.
WINNER! WINNER! Polls mean NOTHING when elections are fixed. There has been ZERO effort in making sure ballots nationwide are free, fair and honest. Until that happens, voting is just the slave suggestion box.
Single digits coming fast for this elite thug totalitarian. Hey, but that’s what we get when an election is stolen. A huge red tsunami coming also. The National Populists in our country have figured it out. The People are the Government and Sovereign!
I would agree with your statement. But, they stole our election and got away with it which means they will now do it regularly. Trump beat Biden. But, liberals control the voting mechanisms now.
I suspect when people get their fuel bills for this winter they will become even more disenchanted with Biden and his crew. Just got min. Take the usual and multiply by 2! That’s for natural gas. Of course, B’s closing off the pipeline didn’t help at all….
Does anything happen when the polls register “0”? We can only wish.
The major problem with the Democrats is the believe how to fix a problem is throw more money at it
How stupid this demented person in the WH, after scamming 30+million $$$ from China, Russia and other countries, the Biden clan would just enjoy life i.e. lay in a hammock, holding a drink in a remote island. I would it done it!!!
I’d like to know the 28% that gave Bumbling Braindead Beijing Biden an A.
The final sentence of this article summed it up perfectly, i.e. ” He is, in all likelihood, much less popular than even his dismal numbers indicate. ” Does this matter to JRB personally?, I doubt it very seriously because he has already forgotten the subject point…
Biden will NOT be running again in any capacity, period. He got his RING as a make believe potus because his handlers made it so & now they are pretty much done with both him & his fake vp…
We all know who’s running the show here. It’s Obama and all his cronies. Psaki even slipped and almost said it. To all the people who voted for this clown, SHAME ON YOU!!!!!!!!!
Here we go again, another Democrat president is getting us into another war. Putin would’ve NEVER done this under Trump’s watch. It’s so shameful and we are doomed as a country.
Guess Brandon is too old for sexxing up 21 year old interns… just another Democrat embroiled in kaka of his own making “wagging the dog” to get other failures off the lead news story.
Putin wouldn’t have had the money.
Trump would’ve kept their Euro pipeline shutdown and ours moving forward at full steam.
Unfortunately, Grandpa Gropes shutdown our energy production plans and went, hat in hand, to beg OPEC to produce more. We all know how that ended up.
Cheers to a reawakening of the patriot spirit demonstrated by the Contract with America conservative movement.
I have to laugh at most of these comments. The USA going to hell in a hand basket doesn’t matter to Biden because Obama is running the show. These policies are on purpose by design. And it doesn’t matter who votes for who if you cheat. And they do! And the Republicans basically do nothing but lip service. Stalin was right. It’s who counts the votes that matters.
Very well stated Nick Patriot…
Trump won the 2020 presidential election in a landslide victory, yet he lost?
No matter – Joey doesn’t pay attention to the polls. And Jen Psaki told him he was doing great!
And the MSM AGREES with both.
Blue wave in November because they believe EVERYTHING the networks and the MSM tells them.
Bunch of LEMMINGS these DemocRATS.
The democrats have been invaded by many who are clearly only interested the demise of America.
Sadly watch the news, raging anti-Americans in government doing well to destroy America, no police anymore in many cities, education a disaster, a national economic failure, energy efforts to stop American growth, world wide view of America is that our goose is cooked. They may be right.
Try to find someone who voted for Biden. No one will admit to being that stupid. This past election was a travesty. The American people are suffering under an inept, clueless old man.
I know a few people that said they voted for Biden as a vote against Donald Trump. And that makes sense as I think Trump attacks on John McCain cost him state of Arizona & then Trump tweet that bashed Goodyear may have cost him 1.2 million union voters. And Trump never did apologize for Goodyear tweet. These are couple of examples of how Biden got in & what a mess now.
They believed the fake news and doubled down on stupid.
Democrats have become become the Agent Elizabeth Keen of politics…yes they are strong and oh so confident in every decision they make despite being wrong 98 percent of the time, yet so desperately annoying that nobody cared when she was cut from the show.
What is this senile clown going to do if there is a real crisis? Russia is going to take Ukraine. Everyone understands that. It is a done deal. Dementia Joe will go through the motions of sanctions, wagging his finger on TV, or whatever. But what if the Russians keep going into the Baltics and beyond? Putin has been waiting for decades for a US President as senile, stupid, weak, corrupt, and craven as Biden. He has the opportunity of a lifetime to put the USSR back together again. I can’t see how this clown can lead the US in a real nuclear war. We will lose – badly.
I just pray that they hid the button from him!
AMERICANS ARE NOT HAPPY WITH BIDEN AND HIS PUPPETEERS!!!
BIDEN IS NOT THE LEGITIMATE PRESIDENT OF THIS COUNTRY!!!
And who is PRESIDENT in your opinion and why ????
Bernie is because the socialists are running things. Didn’t you see the movie?
We as a country wouldn’t be in this totally terrible condition if TRUMP was still our president instead of”SLOPPY JOEY”and cult.