The Biggest Threat to Trump’s Legislative Agenda

On December 3, the 2024 elections finally came to an end, with Democrat Adam Gray defeating incumbent Republican John Duarte in California’s 13th Congressional District exactly four weeks after Election Day. The final results in the House are 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats – a net gain of one seat for the liberal party.

If the past two years are any indication, it is this slim Republican majority – not Democrat meddling or corporate media hoaxes – that poses the greatest threat to President-elect Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. Despite the GOP winning a governing trifecta, even a few defections among House Republicans could derail Trump’s most ambitious proposals.

To be sure, Trump has plenty he can and almost assuredly will accomplish via executive action, and he is no stranger to working with recalcitrant Republicans in Congress. From Remain in Mexico to invoking Title 42, establishing the Space Force, lowering prescription drug prices, and his deregulatory agenda, Trump’s first term was replete with examples of monumental victories achieved without the aid of Congress. Moreover, even when three establishment Republicans broke ranks in the Senate to block the repeal of Obamacare in 2017, Trump was able to negotiate with legislators to include a repeal of the despised individual mandate in his signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Still, Trump will likely need cooperation from Congress to fulfill several of his core campaign promises, including extending the tax cuts he ushered through in 2017, facilitating mass deportations of illegal aliens, banning transgender surgeries for minors, and passing election integrity reforms. While Trump could look to accomplish some of these goals via executive authority, such action would likely bring with it a mountain of lawsuits from liberal groups alleging an overreach of presidential powers. The most effective way to institute sweeping and lasting change will be through legislation.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 53-47 majority – a solid edge that conservatives should feel confident will green-light most of Trump’s agenda. Even if the two most liberal members of the caucus, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski and Maine Senator Susan Collins, defect, the GOP would still have a 51-49 advantage. Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote is an insurance policy if Democrats can peel off one more senator on any particular vote.

In the House, however, things are more dicey. Though the official results from this year show a 220-215 GOP majority, that advantage has effectively already been cut down to 217-215 before the new Congress has even been sworn in. Republican Matt Gaetz, Trump’s short-lived nominee for Attorney General, resigned his seat, while Reps. Elise Stefanik (NY) and Michael Waltz (FL) are both headed to serve in the administration.

All three of those seats should eventually be filled by Republicans, but it creates a precarious situation for Speaker Mike Johnson in the meantime. Any other unforeseen deaths, resignations, or unexpected absences could further imperil the House Republican caucus’s ability to cobble together a majority.

And that’s assuming that House Republicans can stick together even if they have the numbers present. As has been the case time and again since 2022, with such slim margins, a group of just a few Republican members can wield immense power and threaten to block any legislation – something Democrats are more than willing to assist with.

Ultimately, Republican House members, whether they lean more toward the right or center, should keep three important things in mind.

First, and most importantly, the American people delivered a clear mandate to pass Trump’s America First agenda this November. Yes, the House majority is small, but it is a majority nonetheless. Trump won the popular vote, and Republicans flipped the Senate. The country did not vote for half-measures or “America First lite.”

Second, Democrats only have as much power as Republicans are willing to give them. Yes, the Deep State will try to undermine Trump from the inside, while Democrats and the corporate media will do everything they can to slander Republicans and their policies as racist, misogynistic, transphobic, and downright evil. But they don’t have the votes to block those policies.

Democrats understood this well from 2020 to 2022, remaining unified to pass the most far-left agenda in American history that sent inflation soaring and invited 10-20 million illegal aliens across the border. It will take similar unity from Republicans to reverse that damage. Any wins Democrats have over the next two years are wins that Republicans allow them to have.

Third, doing nothing is the worst possible outcome – particularly for the vast majority of members who want to be re-elected in 2026. Voters will tolerate a law that they don’t agree with every detail of, but they won’t tolerate incompetence and gridlock. If Republicans can’t prove that they are capable of governing, they won’t be in power long.

Democrats have already made clear that they are unified against Trump and his agenda. Time will tell if House Republicans are able to similarly unify behind the president-elect.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.