Democrats’ Polling Delusion

The mainstream media’s euphoria at the thought of a Kamala Harris presidency has birthed a skewed narrative of a tight presidential race where Harris has all the momentum. But a deep dive into polling data over the past few weeks reveals a skeptical electorate concerned primarily with the failures of the Biden-Harris administration’s policy agenda and inclined to eventually take out their unhappiness on the Democrat nominee.

While the media continues to push the viability of a Harris campaign based on vague notions of “joy” and endorsements from celebrity elites, the fundamentals of this presidential contest remain the same as any other. For all the unprecedented events of the 2024 cycle, issues and independent voters are ultimately going to play the decisive role once again. Yet another reference to Clinton senior strategist James Carville’s remark that “It’s the economy, stupid” raises the danger for readers of cliché-overload, but the truism remains as accurate today as it was in 1992.

Even in a cycle that has witnessed a successful coup against a sitting president, the attempted assassination of a former president, and the all-out weaponization of government against the ruling regime’s top political rival, issues like illegal immigration, public safety, and the economy, particularly the crisis of sky-high inflation brought on by “Bidenomics,” will likely be the deciding factors.

While Harris has indeed performed better than Biden against Trump on the national level, the all-important battleground state polls are still shaky at best for the vice president.

According to the Trafalgar and Insider Advantage polls released just this week, Trump is still besting Harris in several battleground states, including the game-changers of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Renowned pollster Nate Silver’s observations substantiate these findings, with Silver arguing that Harris has not really moved the needle in Pennsylvania despite the added and expected benefit of a DNC convention boost. Trump, Silver concludes, still has over a 50 percent chance of winning in the Electoral College.

The reason Trump has maintained his polling edge despite an all-out push from the media and Hollywood to turn Harris into the second coming of Barack Obama is his advantage when it comes to the issues that matter most to voters.

For example, a WDIV/Detroit News survey released on Tuesday indicates that Trump commands a significant four-point advantage over Harris in Michigan driven by leads on the economy (51.5 percent to 38.9 percent), foreign affairs (48.7 percent to 44.3 percent), and border security (55.5 percent to 36.6 percent) among Michigan residents.

Moreover, just 29 percent of sampled registered voters in Michigan said that their financial position under Biden had improved in comparison to their situation under Trump. Additionally, 71 percent of independent voters in the state feel that Trump’s economy is better than Biden’s according to an American Greatness/TIPP survey from last month.

A highly biased CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday in favor of Harris likewise reluctantly points to Trump beating Harris on the economy and immigration by wide margins in terms of voter approval across all swing states.

All of this follows the same pattern established in late summer by other polls. In referring to these, The New York Times acknowledged, “But neither abortion nor immigration matters to as many swing voters as economic issues do.” The paper pointed out that swing voters tend to consecutively rank inflation/prices, jobs/the economy, and immigration as their top three issues of importance, and that a larger portion of them consider themselves conservative rather than liberal.

In yet another troubling sign for Democrats, a poll commissioned by the left-leaning organization Navigator Research late last month highlights a direct link between the independent voting patterns shifting toward Trump and the various concerns tied to Harris’s policy platform.

“Harris trails Trump among independents by 5 points (38 percent Harris – 43 percent Trump – 13 percent third party),” the poll notes. Additionally, independent voters prefer Trump over Harris because they ultimately prioritize crucial economic and border security that Harris has neglected.

The poll also found that targeted Republican attack ads that focused on the very policy issues Harris has mishandled did the most harm to her standing among voters. This following statement from the Trump campaign had the biggest influence on voters according to the study: “As Vice President, Harris is responsible for Biden’s failed record. She was Biden’s Border Czar, leading to a border invasion, a surge in crime, and fentanyl on our streets. And, with Harris’s help, Bidenomics has caused runaway inflation and the American Dream is dead. It’s no surprise she was named our most liberal senator, for her support of the Green New Deal and defunding the police. We can’t afford another four years of the Biden-Harris record. Donald Trump will Make America Great Once Again.”

Furthermore, in a throwback to 2016, voters perceive Trump as the stronger leader and change agent who will shake up the status quo in Washington. 

All of this amounts to a robust advantage for Trump with vitally important independent and swing voters. A YouGov/Economist poll out on August 28 found that 55 percent of independent voters would be open to voting for Trump, while 53 percent of them definitively reject the idea of voting for Harris.

Unsurprisingly, even seasoned Democratic strategists and commentators have been cautious of the frenzy surrounding Harris’ candidacy which has been stoked by the media.

As James Carville put it, “I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we’re up two, well, that’s actually, you’re one down, if the poll is correct. The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls.”

Former Obama senior adviser David Axelrod agrees: “This is still a very competitive race,” he said recently. “If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win and I think it may well be President Trump, because it’s an Electoral College fight.”

The ultimate takeaway from these polls is quite clear. Contrary to the mainstream media’s fake news, this race will be a contest of the issues rather than personality and will ultimately come down to voter preference for Republican policies over Democratic ones.

Neil Banerji is a proud Las Vegas resident and former student at the University of Oxford. In his spare time, he enjoys reading Winston Churchill and Edmund Burke.