If forecasts prove accurate, this winter could be one for the record books as a powerful El Niño phenomenon affects weather patterns throughout the United States. Here’s what to expect – and where the best hidden gem travel spots might bee.
El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that steers winter storms south. As of October 2026, meteorologists expect the wettest weather across California and the South to arrive from January into March. That makes early winter the safer time for desert trips and midwinter the best time for snow in the Sierra Nevadas. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of an El Niño stronger than any on record since 1950 at 83 percent this fall. It expects strong to very strong conditions to last through at least March 2027.
NOAA's seasonal outlooks forecast warmer weather across the northern United States and more rain across the South and East Coast. Forecasts like these are chances and not guarantees. Here is where those chances point toward a good trip, and where they point toward changing plans.
Where to Go
Hawaii – January through April
Hawaii is the strongest pick. Winter is normally the islands' rainiest season, but NOAA's winter outlook forecasts less rain than usual this year. A National Weather Service Pacific fact sheet explains the timing. During El Niño, Hawaii's rain often drops off around the start of the new year, and the driest stretch tends to run from January through June. Most winter rain falls on the windward, northeast sides of the islands, so those sides are where a drier winter shows up most.
Stay on a south shore for calmer water, since winter swells bring large waves to north-facing beaches. Winter is also the heart of whale watching season and the busiest time of year, so book early. The downside is that El Niño raises the risk of tropical storms, flash floods, and wildfires on the islands. The Pacific hurricane season ends November 30, which makes January onward the safer time to go.
Tucson and Saguaro National Park – November and December
NOAA gives most of Arizona a 33 to 60 percent chance of more rain than usual this winter. A University of Arizona climate specialist says the best chances for rain come from January through March, with storms arriving in multi-week runs. That makes November and December the safer months for a desert trip. A wet winter is not guaranteed. Much of the state stayed dry during the 2016 El Niño.
Tucson is an easy base for Saguaro National Park, which has two districts on either side of the city. As of 2026, entry is $25 per vehicle and valid for seven days in both districts. The park does not accept cash. If a storm is in the forecast, stay out of dry washes and canyon bottoms.
Mammoth Mountain and Lake Tahoe – January through March
California is one of the best bets in the country for a big snow year, and that means some jaw-dropping views if you’re willing to brave the cold for skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling, and other outdoor winter activities.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain says there is a better than 90 percent chance of a wetter than average California winter. OpenSnow's forecast calls for more snow than usual across the state, with the biggest boost in the Central Sierra around Mammoth Lakes, California. Elevation decides who benefits. Swain expects a warm start to the winter, with rain instead of snow at lower and middle elevations and good snow above roughly 7,000 to 8,000 feet.
Mammoth Mountain sits at the top of that range with a base elevation of 7,953 feet and a summit of 11,053 feet. Its ski season typically runs November to June.
At Tahoe, Mt. Rose has a base of 8,260 feet, which the resort calls the highest base in Tahoe. Palisades Tahoe has a base of 6,200 feet, so rain is more likely on the lower slopes. Expect a slower December and aim for January through March. Snowfall around Tahoe during the 2015-16 El Niño, another very strong phenomenon, was only near average. Book lodging you can cancel and wait for a 15-day forecast that shows snow before you lock in your dates.
Southern Colorado – November and December, March and April
OpenSnow's forecast calls for more snow than usual in southern and eastern Colorado, including the San Juan Mountains. The snowiest stretches are expected in November and December and again in March and April, with less snow than usual in January and February.
Northern and central ski areas such as Vail, Aspen, and Steamboat have no clear forecast either way. Telluride, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek are the resorts to watch. That month-by-month pattern comes from OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith's August 2026 forecast and not from NOAA. Treat it as a best guess and not a firm prediction.
Florida – December and January
Florida winters during past strong El Niños have been normal to warmer than normal. Forecast models call for a wetter than normal winter that would help ease the state's drought. Severe weather tends to become more likely in the second half of winter as storms track farther south, which makes December and January the safer months for a beach trip. The National Weather Service cautions that El Niño alone does not reliably predict tornado outbreaks.
As usual, Florida is your best bet to escape a harsh winter anywhere else in the United States.
Where to Skip or Rethink
Pacific Northwest ski trips
NOAA's outlook gives the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies some of the best chances of a warmer than normal winter. A Portland TV forecaster expects less snow than usual piling up in the northern Oregon and Washington Cascades, with the best snow high on the mountain and rain or thin cover lower down. If you go, choose higher terrain and book flexibly.
The northern Rockies
NOAA forecasts warmer and drier than average conditions across the northern Mountain West. Drought could get worse in parts of the northern Rockies. Hold off on booking any trip that depends on snow until the forecast becomes clearer.
Slot canyons and desert washes during storms
The National Park Service calls slot canyons particularly dangerous in inclement weather. Floods can arrive within minutes from storms miles away, even while the sky overhead stays clear. Weather closures can happen, and a wetter winter makes them more likely. As of October 2026, Antelope Canyon near Page, Arizona, requires a guided tour at every location and charges a $15 per person entry fee per location per day, on top of tour costs. Book refundable tours, schedule canyon days early in your trip, and keep a backup plan.
Pacific Coast Highway through Big Sur
Highway 1 in California is a popular tourist destination for auto-tourists, but this year may be one to skip due to high probability of floods and rockslides.
The road near the famous Big Sur area reopened on January 14, 2026, after three years of closures. A 6.8-mile stretch near Regent's Slide closed again on February 17 for storm debris, with no reopening date. In August, the Timber Fire closed a 10-mile stretch and burned about 4,500 acres. Burned slopes are prone to debris flows, which are fast-moving mudslides, when heavy rain arrives.
Elsewhere in the country
NOAA forecasts a warmer than average winter across the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, and much of the East, which means more comfortable days for walking tours, gardens, and holiday city trips. It will not be dry everywhere. NOAA forecasts a wetter East Coast and drier conditions in parts of the Great Lakes, with no clear forecast for the Ohio Valley. Warmer than average predictions still allow for cold snaps, so check the forecast the week you travel.
Are you changing a winter trip because of El Niño? Tell us where you are headed in the comments.
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