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In 2024, Trump Has the Advantage

Posted on Friday, January 5, 2024
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by Outside Contributor
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President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 2020 Council for National Policy Meeting Friday, Aug. 21, 2020, at the Ritz-Carlton in Pentagon City, Va. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)

The 2024 election is coming.

And right now, it’s Advantage: Trump.

Former President Donald Trump is leading by 2.2% in the RealClearPolitics polling average. That doesn’t sound like a lot until you realize that Trump trailed Joe Biden in that same average on election day 2020 by 7.2% – and only lost by 4.5%. Or that Hillary Clinton was leading in that same average by 3.2% on Election Day 2016 – and only won the popular vote by 2.1%. Donald Trump almost always outdraws his polling number.

What’s more, Biden is stuck in neutral. Why? The answer is obvious: Biden lied to voters. He campaigned as a moderate in the primaries, capitalized on that image in the general while pushing steadily to the Left, and then governed from the Left. Now, says political scientist Ruy Teixeira, “Biden is polling behind Trump nationally and in every swing state, with the possible exception of Wisconsin. Trump is preferred to Biden by wide margins on voters’ most important issue, the economy and inflation, as well as their second most important issue, immigration and border security and on crime and public safety. Biden’s approval rating at this point in his presidency is the lowest of any president going back to the 1940s, when the era of modern polling began.”

Biden thinks that Trump-bashing will save him.

That’s presumably why he’s going to go on a Trump-bashing tour beginning this week, labeling Trump a racist and a fascist. According to the Associated Press, “President Joe Biden is starting the campaign year by evoking the Revolutionary War to mark the third anniversary of the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol and visiting the South Carolina church where a white gunman massacred Black parishioners – seeking to present in the starkest possible terms an election he argues could determine the fate of American democracy.”

This isn’t likely to work. At all.

It’s unlikely to work because everyone knows Trump. Everything about Trump is baked into the cake. Everyone knows that Trump’s 2020 post-election activities didn’t change the outcome of the election – Biden, after all, is president. What’s more, the pitch that Trump is more racist than Biden doesn’t work. Biden is the DEI president, a man who has yammered incessantly in favor of racial carve-outs and staffed his own administration on the basis of intersectional characteristics.

The pitch that Trump is a fascist won’t work either. As even George Will, a Trump opponent, points out, “Joe Biden is, like Trump, an authoritarian recidivist mostly stymied by courts.” Will gives a litany of Biden constitutional violations: “the eviction moratorium, the vaccine mandate, the cancellation of student debt,” among others.

Most of all, Biden’s hope that hatred for Trump will somehow save him is predicated on the idea that heavy turnout against Trump is a foregone conclusion. But…what if it’s not? What if the actual norm is that Trump doesn’t drive Democratic turnout in the way Biden hopes? In 2016, after all, turnout was within historical norms: 59.2% of eligible voters voted in that year, compared with 58% in 2012 and 60.1% in 2004. In 2020, by contrast, a whopping 66.9% of eligible voters showed up. That last number is a massive outlier. 2020 saw a voter increase of 23 million, to 160 million total voters – as opposed to 137 million in 2016 and 129 million in 2012.

That wasn’t because of Trump. It was because of pandemic-era policies that allowed everyone to vote from home months in advance. Do we really think that 2020 turnout number will replicate? If it doesn’t, who will those marginal voters come from: Biden or Trump?

This means that Biden is going to have to actually succeed in order to win.

The only thing that might save him would be…you know, good things happening in America.

But his own policies prevent just that.

Ben Shapiro, 39, is a graduate of UCLA and Harvard Law School, host of “The Ben Shapiro Show,” and co-founder of Daily Wire+. He is a three-time New York Times bestselling author; his latest book is “The Authoritarian Moment: How The Left Weaponized America’s Institutions Against Dissent.”

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Nola Krause
Nola Krause
4 months ago

Unfortunately we all know that biden isn’t behind his policies! Obama is living his 3rd term through biden. We all know biden doesn’t even know his own name unless someone is whispering it in his ear. The entire biden administration needs to go!

Donna
Donna
4 months ago

While the coward in chief is in South Carolina, perhaps someone, anyone, would kindly remind him that his party, the democrats were pro slavery, and still, to this day support a system of welfare slavery to the black and brown population in our country to guarantee control over them.

Kim
Kim
4 months ago

If President Trump states all the facts that made his administration and this country great, who could argue with that? (Hopefully, he will steer clear of unnecessary “embellishments” in debates with biden and in front of media.)
“Compare and contrast” works with mentally capable adults, but we’re dealing with half a populace that unfortunately might not be capable of rational thought. Voting for Trump is the only sensible thing to do to stop the hemorrhaging of our national spirit and our coffers.

Steven Coughlin
Steven Coughlin
4 months ago

Putting aside the fact that we are not a democracy but a representative republic, it is laughable (albeit dangerous) that Biden and his ilk say they are trying to save America, when the exact opposite is true. It is Biden who has censored Americans, opened our borders , caused runaway inflation, skirted the Constitution (I.e. student loan forgiveness) and labeled parents of school children as terrorists, etc., all while being the most corrupt president in our history. He and his cronies simply don’t want to cede power and control.. so who are the true fascists? Keep projecting though Joe, since that’s one thing Democrats seem to be good at.

GMA
GMA
4 months ago

Democrats have been planning for 100 yrs to bring down America..this is their beginning and only we, the voters, can stop them.

Melinda
Melinda
4 months ago

Democrats have a bag full of tricks to use when it comes to swaying elections. I hope none of them work this time. We gotta have hope!

Gil
Gil
4 months ago

I still say, and believe, that the voting age should be 25 (except for the enlisted) and should have lived on their own (and paid taxes) for at least two years. Plus, the voting should go back to the old way.

Myrna
Myrna
4 months ago

We can’t and we won’t let the Covid election run our whole future.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
4 months ago

I think Biden uses Trump to relive what is probably his (only) greatest life achievement: the Day Joe Defeated Corn Pop. I heard Alzheimer sufferers hallucinate so maybe all he sees is “Corn Pops everywhere”….

Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
Gabe Hanzeli kent wa
4 months ago

Of course he does. biden and the democrats have shown us once again what a mess they make when they are in charge.

Kevin
Kevin
4 months ago

Personal opinion. Republican law makers are retiring knowing that if President Trump wins he can then be easily impeached and removed, for good. One man’s opinion. Praying I’m wrong.

Bruce Peter Mattson
Bruce Peter Mattson
4 months ago

All moot if the machine steals another one.

Kathy Krajcik
Kathy Krajcik
4 months ago

I heard that the Democratic party is urging their people to switch to Republican so that they can vote someone else in as the candidate and not Trump. I don’t know how that works and if it’s even true.

johnh
johnh
4 months ago

Correct me if I am wrong, but the last polls I have read show that 60% of Americans do not want either Biden or Trump as the next POTUS.

johnh
johnh
4 months ago

You forgot to mention that Trump keeps bashing himself by using Truth Social as his outlet. And do not forget answering Hannity on if he would be a dictator.

Sad luck chum
Sad luck chum
4 months ago

“vote from home months in advance”

ben are you saying you lost because republicans don’t know how to mail a ballot either? Lol

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