Dems Headed for a Senate Shock in New Hampshire?

Recent polling has bolstered Democrat confidence that they can flip control of the U.S. Senate this November. But Republicans have quietly been running a strong race in New Hampshire, perhaps building the foundation for a stunning upset that would dash Democrats’ Senate hopes.

With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority, Democrats need to hold all their seats and flip at least four GOP-held seats. Current polling suggests Democrats have a shot at winning in Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and, to a lesser extent, Kansas and Nebraska. That gives Democrats a few paths to potentially retake control – but those paths narrow considerably if Republicans can flip even one Democrat-held seat.

One of the best opportunities for the GOP to do exactly that has quietly emerged in New Hampshire, where Republican nominee John E. Sununu is within striking distance of Democrat nominee Rep. Chris Pappas. Both are vying to replace incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, who is retiring. Shaheen first won the seat in 2008 and has held it ever since.

Sununu is running on lower taxes, less regulation, and making “government work again.” Meanwhile, Pappas is emphasizing the cost of living, public education, Medicaid, and Social Security, while attacking Trump administration policies on tariffs, health care, and foreign affairs.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Pappas leads Sununu by 6.7 points – a healthy lead to be sure, but not insurmountable. Recent polls have notably underestimated support for Republican candidates in the state. In 2024, for instance, polls showed Kamala Harris with a 4.2-point edge over President Donald Trump heading into Election Day. Harris actually carried New Hampshire by 2.8 points. A slightly larger polling error and a strong final push by Sununu would mean things are still very much up in the air on November 3.

Individual polls have also suggested that the race is more up for grabs than polling averages may suggest. A University of New Hampshire survey from late August found Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent support, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. Pappas’s unfavorable rating also climbed from 43 percent in June to 51 percent in August in a Saint Anselm College survey.

While most of New England is solidly blue, New Hampshire is an exception that doesn’t fit neatly into either party’s mold. Republicans have had a remarkable string of success in state-level races in recent years, while Democrats have dominated federal races. The Republican presidential nominee has won the state just once since 1988, but Republicans have held a trifecta in the state government since 2021.

The most recent Republican to win a Senate seat in New Hampshire was Kelly Ayotte in 2010, who then lost to incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan in 2016. But voters still liked Ayotte enough to elect her governor in 2024, even as the state went for Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

That trend suggests that both parties have reason to believe that they can win in New Hampshire this fall. Neither candidate should take anything for granted or assume that he is out of the race, regardless of what the polls may say.

Republicans are responding accordingly, and GOP-aligned groups have already reserved substantially more television spending than Democrats, who are increasingly strapped for cash as the race enters the critical home stretch. The GOP has reportedly already spent $6.7 million, with $25 million in future ad reservations. Democrats, meanwhile, have spent just $4.2 million with $15 million set aside for future ad buys.

However, Pappas raised $14.6 million through August 19, more than three times Sununu’s $4.1 million. But Pappas spent heavily before the primary, leaving the candidates with similar cash reserves heading into the general election – $3.84 million for Pappas and $3.02 million for Sununu.

Sununu is notably part of a political dynasty in the Granite State, and voters are well familiar with the name. He previously held the Senate seat he is now trying to reclaim before Shaheen defeated him in 2008. Sununu’s younger brother, Chris Sununu, served four two-year terms as Governor of New Hampshire and left office with an approval rating near 60 percent.

John and Chris’s father, John H. Sununu, was another popular Granite State governor who served three terms before becoming President George H.W. Bush’s first chief of staff.

Still, Pappas is a formidable opponent. He first won election to the U.S. House in 2018 and has held the seat ever since in a tough district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. He also has deep ties in Manchester, the state’s largest city, with his family owning the Puritan Backroom restaurant, a local staple that claims to have invented the chicken tender.

Republicans undoubtedly would be overjoyed to shock the political world and flip New Hampshire on election night. But from a national perspective, even if they come up short there, forcing Democrats to divert resources from other swing states to hold Shaheen’s old seat could be a big win for the GOP. Every dollar Democrats are forced to spend in New Hampshire is a dollar they can’t spend trying to flip Ohio, North Carolina, or Texas.

Ultimately, that may be the real danger for Democrats. New Hampshire does not have to become a Republican pickup to complicate their path to a Senate majority. If the race stays close through Election Day, a seat Democrats once expected to defend comfortably could become an expensive distraction at exactly the wrong time.