Can Lombardo Keep Nevada Red – And Reshape the 2028 Map?

Nevada’s 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most important yet overlooked races in the country this year, with Republican Governor Joe Lombardo seeking re-election in what has become a premier political battleground. In addition to having major implications for the future of the Silver State, the result could offer an early indication of what to expect nationally heading into 2028.

In recent years, Nevada has quickly become one of the most important swing states in the nation. Democrat presidential candidates won there four consecutive cycles before Trump won a 50.6 percent to 47.5 percent victory over Kamala Harris in 2024.

That victory further cemented Nevada’s status as a key political bellwether, leaving many wondering whether the state will continue trending Republican or shift back toward Democrats this year and in 2028.

In an exclusive interview with AMAC Newsline, a spokesperson for Governor Joe Lombardo’s campaign explained why they are confident that Republicans can further solidify recent GOP gains in the state despite some unique challenges.

“Under [Lombardo’s] leadership, Nevada has led the nation in job growth, average wage growth, and post-pandemic small business growth,” they explained. “Employment has reached a record high of more than 1.6 million jobs, wages are growing faster than rent, inflation has fallen dramatically from its peak, and housing conditions are improving as rents decline from their highs and home prices begin to stabilize.”

“Nevada has always been a true battleground state because of the large group of independent voters,” they continued. “More than one-third of our active registered voters are nonpartisan – the largest single voting bloc in the state. They don’t automatically vote for one party or the other; they vote for people they trust, ideas they believe in, and leaders who they believe will deliver results.”

According to the campaign, that bodes well for Lombardo, who has made improving the state’s economic standing a central pillar of his agenda. Following the COVID-era shutdowns, economic disruption, and restrictions on personal freedoms, the campaign argues that voters have “become increasingly receptive to commonsense conservative principles: safer streets, secure borders, support for law enforcement, fiscal responsibility, economic growth, and a limited government” – all priorities that have defined Lombardo’s administration.

Still, recent polling shows a close race – undoubtedly influenced by national headwinds working against Republicans. One survey found Lombardo leading the Democrat nominee, Attorney General Aaron Ford, by a razor-thin margin, 39 percent to 38 percent – a statistical tie. However, Lombardo holds a noteworthy favorability edge over Ford, 48 percent to 40 percent.

The Lombardo campaign says the election will ultimately be decided on issues affecting everyday Nevadans. “Nevada voters are focused on the core kitchen-table issues: affordability, housing, public safety, education, and creating more economic opportunity. Governor Lombardo has a record of delivering results on all fronts.”

Looking ahead, Lombardo says he intends to build on his administration’s first-term successes by making Nevada more affordable, improving education, expanding housing, strengthening public safety, growing the economy, and improving access to quality healthcare.

Despite having to deal with a Democrat-controlled legislature, Lombardo secured several significant legislative victories during his first term. Among his accomplishments was the largest education investment in Nevada history, along with school accountability measures, expanded school choice options, and school safety reforms.

He also secured the MLB’s Oakland Athletics’ move to Las Vegas, strengthening the city’s economy and further establishing it as a major sports and entertainment destination.

Other accomplishments include attracting $5 billion in private investment, creating more than 44,000 new jobs, cutting the Modified Business Tax by 15 percent, and signing the Safe Streets and Neighborhoods Act, which increased penalties for certain crimes and targeted issues affecting Nevada’s tourism industry.

Beyond his record in office, Lombardo also brings decades of public service and deep personal ties to Nevada. He grew up in Las Vegas, where his father was stationed at Nellis Air Force Base. After attending high school and college there, Lombardo served in the U.S. Army and Nevada National Guard before joining the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, where he worked his way up through the ranks. He was elected as Sheriff of Clark County in 2014 and re-elected in 2018.

While Lombardo has leaned on his long record of public service and pragmatic governance to anchor his campaign, Ford has sought to make the race a referendum on Trump. However, critics note that this strategy ignores the fact that Trump’s “no tax on tips” policy has had an especially positive impact in Nevada, which has the highest concentration of service and tipped workers in the country.

Ford was born in Dallas, Texas, and lived in Washington, D.C., and Ohio before moving to Nevada in 2007. He has served as Nevada’s attorney general since 2019. His campaign website says he has stood up to “both Trump and Biden administrations when their policies hurt Nevadans.” The campaign also lists housing, health care, affordable and sustainable energy, economic development, and education among its top priorities.

Unlike Lombardo, Ford does bring some personal baggage into the race. He has notably faced scrutiny over four misdemeanor charges – which did not result in convictions – and three tax liens that were resolved in 2016. More recently, critics have questioned his extensive special interest-funded travel during his tenure – totaling 420 days – arguing that his time away from the state raises concerns about his focus on Nevada’s interests.

When asked about Ford’s attempt to make this race a referendum on national politics, the Lombardo campaign said that “the choice facing Nevada voters is simple: who has a proven record of delivering results for our state and who has a plan to keep moving Nevada in the right direction.”

“As we head into 2026, Governor Lombardo’s message is clear: we've made meaningful progress, but there is more work to do. His focus remains on making Nevada more affordable, strengthening public safety, improving education, expanding housing opportunities for existing Nevada residents, and ensuring every Nevadan has the opportunity to succeed.”

Even for voters who don’t live in Nevada, the race remains one to watch. In a close 2028 presidential election, Nevada’s six electoral votes could well prove decisive – and a popular or unpopular Republican or Democrat governor could influence how voters feel about a presidential candidate from either party.