Next year’s battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to be another nail-biter – but developments in three states over the next several months may go a long way toward determining the outcome before a single vote is cast.
Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a slim 220-212 seat majority. (Several deaths and resignations have left the chamber a few members short of its full contingent of 435). That puts all the more pressure on the GOP as it looks to retain the gavel and prevent Democrats from working to undermine President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Every seat could be the difference in which party wins next November – which is why it’s no surprise that opportunities to draw more favorable congressional maps in some states are getting lots of attention from both parties. The U.S. Constitution gives state legislatures the power to decide how congressional districts are drawn.
While some states have partially ceded that power to courts or redistricting commissions, in most states, lawmakers in the capital still decide where the district lines go – and therefore which party has the edge. Three states, Texas, Ohio, and Wisconsin, could potentially see changes to their congressional maps before next November that impact how many Republicans and Democrats each sends to Washington.
Texas, with its 38 House seats, is the most consequential of the three. According to a New York Times report out earlier this month, the White House is pressuring Lone Star State lawmakers to embark on a rare mid-decade redistricting session. States typically only draw new district maps every 10 years after the Census. The last round of redistricting came following the 2020 Census.
According to the Times, GOP officials “believe that Republicans could potentially pick up as many as four or five House seats in 2026” if the maps are redrawn. However, there is pushback from some Texas Republicans who fear redrawing maps could unnecessarily endanger incumbents.
It’s a simple math equation. Every Republican voter in a Republican district that is redrawn into a Democrat district is one less Republican voter for that incumbent Republican member. A new map might take a 60-40 Republican and 60-40 Democrat district and draw two 55-45 Republican districts. That gives Republicans an edge in both districts – but also makes both competitive for Democrats if it’s a tough environment for Republicans.
The Times reports that most incumbent House Republicans from the Texas delegation have little desire to redraw their districts. But lawmakers in Austin seem more open to the idea.
Republicans also see opportunity in Ohio, which has state-mandated redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Currently, Republicans hold 10 of the Buckeye State’s 15 U.S. House seats and see an opportunity for picking up two or three more. Ohio is now reliably red, but even districts that went for Trump in 2024 have elected Democrat members.
Specifically, Republican leaders see Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur’s (OH-9) seat as a chance for a pick-up, since her district supported Trump. However, as noted by Punchbowl News, the same voters also keep re-electing Kaptur. The Democrat Congresswoman has been in office since 1983, making her an entrenched power. Nevertheless, Kaptur won by less than one percent in 2024, making it very likely she could be defeated.
The redistricting process undoubtedly favors Republicans. “The Ohio Constitution says a 60 percent majority of the General Assembly must pass a plan by the end of September,” according to the Statehouse News Bureau. Republicans hold well over 60 percent of seats in both the Ohio Senate and the Ohio House.
This means Republicans can pass an approved plan without any Democrat support. If a plan is not passed by October 1, it goes to a redistricting commission, which is also controlled by the GOP. Legal challenges to the process would likely fail since the state Supreme Court has a conservative majority.
Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican, predicted his party will “probably end up” with at least 12 seats. However, moving district lines is not a guaranteed win.
“In light of the White House push to force a new Texas map, it’s safe to imagine Trump’s team also wants Ohio Republicans to be aggressive,” Punchbowl News said in its analysis of the situation. “But just like in Texas, Republicans need to be careful not to spread their voters too thin and endanger incumbents.”
Democrats have an opportunity of their own to pick up seats in Wisconsin – thanks in large part to Susan Crawford’s victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election back in April. That win allowed liberals to maintain their 4-3 majority.
While running for election, Crawford raised eyebrows by participating in a fundraising call with Democrats where she strongly suggested that, if she were elected, she would hear a challenge to the state’s congressional map and rule in favor of drawing new lines that advantage Democrats.
“In an appeal to entice out-of-state billionaires, Susan Crawford said the quiet part out loud: she is begging to be bought and paid for,” Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming said at the time. A Crawford spokeswoman said the judge participated in the call “briefly to share her background and why she’s running.”
Sure enough, soon after Crawford’s victory, a Democrat law firm brought a suit challenging Wisconsin’s map, which currently has a 6-2 Republican split. That lawsuit is still pending, but it is very likely Crawford could be asked to weigh in once she takes her seat in August.
Democrats and Republicans will both undoubtedly accuse the other of trying to rig the game in their favor. But they do agree on one thing – the battle for control of the U.S. House is already underway in courtrooms and state legislatures.
AMAC Newsline contributor Matt Lamb is an associate editor for The College Fix. He previously worked for Students for Life of America, Students for Life Action, and Turning Point USA. He previously interned for Open the Books. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Examiner, The Federalist, LifeSiteNews, Human Life Review, Headline USA, and other outlets. The opinions expressed are his own. Follow him @mattlamb22 on X.
Since the day after the election last November, I have been saying the following, ad nauseum: If there is one thing this administration must accomplish during this term of office, it is to create and implement a foolproof system to ensure voting integrity. The Democrats have been engaging in voter registration and election fraud to an ever-increasing degree in an ever-increasing number of ways for many decades. Despite endless claims to the contrary, the Democrats have not had majority public or voter support in this nation since the 1960s, and as each year goes by, their level of support has been gradually decreasing. It has reached the point where there are few, if any, national-level elections (President, Senate, House) the Democrats can win without massive levels of cheating, and cheat they do. If this nation is going to continue to exist in a form we can recognize, this cheating must be brought to an end, once and for all.
There is not a democrat alive that I would vote for. They have more than proved to me that for them, it’s all about power and money.
I want to see people who care about we citizens. And not one democrat I have heard of cares about America or the people.
REMEMBER US HISTORY: IN 1913 WOODROW WILSON WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT – ONE OF THE WORST. IN 1913 THREE VERY BAD THINGS HAPPENED TO AMERICA: WILSON WAS ELECTED (DEMOCRAT) THE 16TH AMENDMENT (INCOME TAX) AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE (CENTRAL BANK) ALL BECAME A REALITY. IN 1918 THE COMMUNISTS TOOK OVER RUSSIA AND THERE WAS A LARGE CONTINGENTOF AMERICANS WANTED THE US TO BECOME COMMUNIST AND THEY HAVE BEEN HARD AT WORK EVER SINCE.
CAPITALISM IS CHAOTIC BECAUSE BUSINESSES CHANGE AND MONEY FLOWES IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND THAT IS GOOD FOR EVERYODY.
THECOMMUNISTS PAINT A PICTURE OF STABILITY WHERE EVERYONE IS THE SAME (HELLO DEI) BUT IN REALITY EVERY HUMAN IS DIFFERENT WITH DIFFERENT DESIRES. COMMUNISTS KILL ANYONE WHO DOESN’T AGREE WITH THEM (WORLD HISTORY PROVES THIS POINT).
THIS IS A BIT LONG WINDED BUT IF YOU THINK, PERHAPS THE AMERICAN COMMUNIST PARTY SAW AN EASY TAKEOVER BY GAINING CONTROL OF ONE OF OUR MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES AND DEMOCRAT PRINCIPLES ARE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH COMMUNISM. SO, LOOK AT THE DEMOCRAT PARTY TODAY: THEIR PLAN FOR AMERICA IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH COMMUNISM.
ALMOST FORGOT, IN COMMUNISM EVERYONE LIVES IN MISERY WHILE THE ONES IN POWER LIVE AN ELITE LIFE. ANYONE WITH A BIT OF INTELLIGENCE SHOULD REALIZE HOW VERY BAD COMMUNISM IS.
remember dems cheat better thanrep
More important..STOP COUNTING ILLEGALS in the census, which the DEMS do all over and the GOP refuses to stop them. imo
Local people running for a House seat are usually re-elected. Those are people they know and like.They very often don’t vote along party lines or that person must have done something awful. Hatred for Trump plays a role. Brainwashing, see lies, by the democrats and buying votes paid for by Soros is what the fight is all about. The enemy from within has reared its ugly head in silence for far too long. Their evil ways are now open for all to see. Communist candidates are popping up everywhere and next years midterm election will reflect that. Beware people who is running in your district. Do something awesome research before we are under communist rule. And support the Republican Party. Don’t let the communists win.
IF the votes are NOT finsihed counting on the same day they are cast…then the CHEAT is IN PLAY…no exceptions.
example..Florida 19 million citizens.. polls close 7pm..votes are counted and POSTED before 11pm same night. Including all mail-in ballots…which must be in the elections office before 7pm voting day. easy peasy….
Too many voters ignore the local elections, but yet are the loudest complainers when those politicians are making decisions about things that they allowed them to continue to do by not voting them out. I, for one, am tired of learning that only a small percentage of voters decide an election result. The decision should be made by 85% of the registered voters not the 15% of voters only. There’s absolutely no reason to not vote.
“Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections.”
Word on the Street reflects ??
“Not this time if Americans vote and toss the lying and cheating democrats (look at the last four years of theft, corruption, lying, cheating, and shoving the American we love off the cliff [which failed] – who are clones to whom and why?” Consolidated comments!
We don’t have safe, guarded, protected, fair elections in the USA. Mail-in ballots must go. There is a reason Europe got rid of mail-in ballots decades ago. Photo I d must be required. Dems cheat and then sleep like babies. It is now illegal in California to ask for photo I d at election sites. Dems want that for all States.
Its too easy to say, Both parties stack the deck” in each’s favor, but THINK, which party hid a senile president from all of us and we still do not know who was running our nation.
This election I am hoping all voters will consider our last four years under the Biden administration, and give the Republican party their vote, regardless of maps. Do not reward these deceivers with your vote, just a thought
I’m not sure what the correct answer would be. Either party I’m sure will skew the maps on their favor. Either way, I don’t approve of purposely ‘stacking the deck’.
Please don’t underestimate the power and funding the democrats have. They will stop at nothing to take back the majority in both chambers. Please don’t get complacent and think that these races are won before a vote is cast… they are not. Republican turnout must be at record highs; the 2026 midterms will likely be the most important midterms ever. The NYC race for mayor is just the beginning.
IF [big if] the media actually reported the news, the GOP should gain seats based on DJT’s many successes. That’s true IF the tax cuts go through which will greatly boost the economy!
The last paragraph of this article says it all.
California drew new congressional maps and did it in favor of the Democrat party. It left the more cautious voter out with no real vote. They made the lines to work for the party, not the people. It is sad when we do not have good representatives for the country.
Districts should be squares even distributed across our nation, let the cow chips fall where they may. Our so called “representatives” should have to deal with it or stay out of politics (as in ‘poly’ meaning many, and ‘ticks’ meaning bloodsuckers).
Voting districts should be mandated by the constitution to have a minimum perimeter for the population covered. No more long snaking district arms that favor one party or the other.
Voter ID is essential to an honest election too. The voter roles should be cleansed of illegal and duplicate registration. No more dead people voting and no more voting in multiple districts. Especially no illegal aliens voting. Send them home. Send the murderers, rapists and other violent illegal aliens home in a box.
It is my understanding that the Wisconsin Supreme Court dismissed both Democrat gerrymander lawsuits without comment. Unless there is some “next trick” the Democrats will not be picking up any new seats in Wisconsin this decade.
Why don’t you print an article that exposes the fact the issue is not which party holds the majority. The real issue is how many foot soldiers of the deep state will still hold office after the mid terms. The swamp needs to be drained and there many traitors in both parties.They are all being exposed. Just lookat the battle currently being fought over President Trumps Big Beautiful Bill.
It appears that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court has rejected two lawsuits asking the justices to redraw the congressional maps in time for the 2025 election.
Cali-rado gerrymandering linked conservative rural districts with liberal urban areas, giving the liberal candidates more voters. Now the libtards rule the state and send dummycrats and RINOs to the swamp.
If you want to know what gerrymandering looks like look at connecticut
We all know which party continues to infringe upon the second amendment
that should tell you all you need to know about the democrats
Simply put: NEVER, EVER VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT.
I worked the National census last time and everything in the world was done to cheat on the figures. I was asked to do some things that were totally wrong and I’m sure totally illegal. I was a supervisor and I was asked to just close out address without rechecking them for one thing.
All I have to say is that I sincerely hope the GOP retains the majority so the president can keep going!
With Elon Musk touting a third party, there is a strong possibility that the democraps can win both the House and Senate.
Why? Because such a third party would draw more voters from the Republican party than the lefties (especially if the America party leans conservative). Unfortunately, the idea of a conservative third party could have major, disastrous consequences for our Republic.
Would I love a truly fiscally responsible, conservative political party? Yes!! But, I fear we are at a point in US history where any attempt at creating such a party is impossible without shifting future elections into the hands of the communist-inspired left.
dems joined MAGA 2024 —– because party dems abandoned them for communism. not assuming anything which is how we got here over the past 50 years. outlook is shocking now other than MAGA which is pleasing the 80% in 80%-20% issues.
Having undergone this “re-mapping of districts “ here in NYS, I can clearly say that the individual voters have so say in how these remapping occurs and not given any information about how the maps are drawn or told anything until after when you suddenly find out that you have a representative of your district that you never voted for and will never vote for who has no idea of your district’s needs. I made a point to figure out where all the registered voters were located in my block to see how actively they vote—just through normal conversations whenever any election cycle occurs—they are neighbors, and I also noted how many residents are not registered voters for whatever reasons. I came to the conclusion that too many people who are renters don’t actively participate in voting and yet expect certain things from those in office. And yet absentee owners who live outside the location of their building are affecting the voting lines of the district. This needs studying to understand how district mapping occurs especially since this done behind closed doors. It took 3-4 remapping of the districts here in NYS for end result
My grandparents were Democrats. My parents were Democrats. I was a Democrat growing up and until about 20 years ago. Back then there actually were two major politically parties, but united in their visions of America. Both parties worked together, without sniping at e v e r y t h i n g the other party did, or wanted to do. Then along came Obama. As a good Democrat, Ii was happy to FINALLY see a Black person in the White House. I remember after the election he said (paraphrasing here) ‘We are the Change we have been looking for!’ Sure enough, the USA changed, politics changed, political parties changed (we now treat each others as the Shiites vs the Sunnis), and we no longer see a common goal to achieve and live under. Today’s Democratic Party is unrecognizable form the one we had. And I will never vote for another Dumba$$ocrat as long as I live….
I think the White House should be pushing to replace the state rnc party leadership with leaders who believe in the MAGA movement and trying to replace the rinos in both the house and senate with MAGA candidates.
Because of the way the senate GOP turned their backs on the 2A community by eviscerating the Hearing Protection Acts and Short Act, A whole lot more folks than usual are going to sit out the mid terms. Because of Thune’s spinelessness, we can kiss the senate majority goodbye. That will put dems in charge of judicial confirmations, a whole bunch of Trump admin investigation circus side-shows and gift them the ability to obstruct/stymie GOP legislation. And for what? There would have been practically *ZERO* political cost to Thune to ignore the parliamentarian — just like the dems have done in the past — and pass the House version of the bill. But so be it. That appears to be what Thune wants since he still can likely profit off legalized congressional graft in the minority.
After seeing what the democRATS and media have done the last 4 yrs, there is no way I would ever vote for a democrat again! I would like my granddaughter to be safe in a locker room or bathroom. I’ll never forget the lunacy the democRATS pushed on the American people
If the dem (comms) get control of the house, the very first minute they are sworn in–they’ll propose impeachment of Trump. They won’t be able to help themselves, the children they are…
Didn’t the Wisconsin Supreme Court decline to address the case, thus allowing the Republicans to settle the case?
“…a Democrat law firm brought a suit challenging Wisconsin’s map” – can a law firm sue? I mean yes, its attorneys as private citizens can sue, its client’s can sue – but a law firm?
ps: A few days ago a media story said something about culling the voter rolls of illegal and reworking the census numbers for illegals (make-up of congressional seats). Ask your membership to ask the Reps/Sens question…maybe AMAC should have something on its website to push the issue?
Any elected Congressperson or any judge who says his/her only objective is to block the president (whoever that may be) should be immediately removed. They are elected to run the country as well as possible, NOT TO SPOUT THE PARTY
LINE! Control should belong to the people. The current control is MONEY!
——————————————————————-
The only way our government will ever be returned to the people will happen when a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT states that:
No elected official or politician may solicit or accept any donation of any kind from any person or entity that cannot CAST A VOTE for him/her.
Nothing from any other state or district than the one in which he/she seeks the office. No money from PACs, unions, corporations, foreign countries, etc.
NOT ONE CENT, NOT A SANDWICH, NOT A FISHING TRIP!
NOTHING, NOTHING, NOTHING EXCEPT FROM THOSE WHO MAY VOTE FOR HIM OR HER! NOTHING!
What I am disappointed about is the “Big Beautiful Bill” was passed and Pres. Trump has signed it into law, but he and
others are saying “No more tax on Social security” BUT IT
IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE!! I am fed up with being lied to, And
I believe this kind of thing can be used against Pres. Trump
and the others in the mid-term elections if the leftists pounce on that and from now until the mid-terms hit Republicans over the head with it! PRESIDENT TRUMP
AND ALL THE REST OF REPUBLICANS IN D.C. DO NOT
LIE TO US ANYMORE OR WE MIGHT LOSE BOTH HOUSES TO THE CRAZY MARXISTS IN MID-TERMS!
I need to trust once again…. We are getting close…
As far as Texas goes, regardless of who is actually elected to legislature seats, once they actually get to Austin, insanity overtakes them and there are no “reliable” Conservatives/Republicans (save one it seems, Sen. Donna Campbell). I’m convinced the madness is in the water there.
I’ve never heard such a fully throated endorsement of gerrymandering.
Pathetic.
Unless Gov. Abbott calls a special session to redraw districts, this will not happen in Texas.
everything the local brand of communists need to change the country forever: open borders, voter fraud, and indoctrination education. keep fighting. (Newton’s Third Law of Motion in Physics) Key Points About Newton’s Third Law of Motion
The issue is the BBB and tariffs have to work, if not pack your bags. Secondly, the negative about tariffs and BBB are everywhere including for some stupid reason Fox news broadcasting what democrats think without rebuttal or correction. WTH? Thirdly lying media that apparently Fox thinks they need to broadcast their unfounded opinions, once again without push back. Especially that afternoon gal. As an example, she asked Gowdy, “if you had line item veto power? What would you strike out of the bill?” Trey looked stunned and avoided the answer.
Each state needs to work actively to make their voting logs accurate and remove any name that is invalid. From what I am reading, many GOP states are doing so but I think the Democrat states will never do so because they don’t care who votes as long as it is for them. Sometimes cheaters DO win and we are seeing that more and more.
The title could lead to complacency. This may be the hardest faught mid-term in history.
How can you arrange for a 60/40 one way and a 40/60 the other way into 2 55/45 red
districts ? It’s apparently not a simple math problem, but math done by a simpleton !
This can get very complicated , leave to God!
Democraps should be shot on site.