AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Berman
When the first wave of exit polls, which have historically overestimated Democrats, were released at 5 pm on Tuesday, CNN was already analyzing a Democratic fiasco. They painted a bleak picture: 73% of voters felt unhappy or angry about the direction of the country, and the top issue was inflation, at 32%. But the power of this narrative, in a touch of irony, backfired on Republicans as well. So fatalistic were Democrats about their chances that Republicans too became convinced that what was on the table was not merely a defeat of the Democratic Party, but its annihilation.
In this belief, Republicans set themselves up for disappointment much as Democrats had in 2018. In that year, however, the bubble had burst early. The Democratic wave came up against the state of Florida, where, powered by an aggressive investment of personal prestige and resources by President Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott defied polls to win the governorship and Senate seat. This victory came early enough in the night that, when combined with Indiana, Missouri, and Tennessee voting to form and against Democratic Senate candidates, it was clear that, however successful Democrats were elsewhere, they were operating within a partisan world. At the end of the day, Democrats were Democrats and Republicans were Republicans.
If Florida’s results provided an early dose of reality in 2018 and 2020, they did the opposite in 2022. They seemed to confirm the inflated expectations which had entered the minds of Republicans and the fatalism of Democrats. Indeed, what befell Democrats in Florida was not a defeat but an extinction-level event.
Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio won by margins of 19% and 17%, respectively, even carrying Miami-Dade County. This was the largest margin of victory for any Republican governor in history, exceeding even Jeb Bush’s 13% margin in 2002. When compared with these margins, especially against highly touted Democratic candidates such as former Governor Charlie Crist – who had previously been a Republican – and Congresswoman Val Demings, who was passed over for Kamala Harris in the 2020 vice presidential sweepstakes, anything which followed would look disappointing. And so a year in which the GOP improved on the party’s performance in 2016, 2018, and 2020, and did so against almost the uniform opposition of the media and much of the cultural establishment, instead was seen as Democrats “defying the odds.” This is unfair.
Tuesday was not a night which brought the extinction of the Democratic Party. But it did narrow the path forward. Democrats arrested their decline in the Midwest and Northeast, where they had struggled since 2016, but they still lost the Senate races in Ohio and North Carolina and are trailing in Wisconsin and Nevada as of Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, their efforts to build a new base of support in the sunbelt, the project for which they abandoned their working-class base, ran into a brick wall. It is for that reason that their defeats in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, which between them hold 84 electoral votes, and may gain six more this decade, matter.
Democrats have come to hold a special animus toward Florida, which they believe cheated them of victory in 2000 and 2016, ousted its Democratic Senator in 2018, and trended against them in 2020. But Georgia and Texas hold a special place in their hearts. “Turning Texas Blue” through a mixture of a growing Hispanic population and a migration of upscale suburban liberals has been an obsession ever since the term of George W. Bush, when it emerged as an almost petty method of revenge against Bush and Tom Delay. It appeared to be fools gold until 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came within an inch of winning the Senate seat of Ted Cruz, losing by a narrow 50%-48% margin. These hopes were disappointed in 2020, when Biden lost the state 52%-46%, while Democrats failed to make gains in the legislature.
Equally heartbreaking was Georgia, where Stacey Abrams, like O’Rourke, came within an inch of defeating Brian Kemp for the governorship in 2018, nearly bringing an entire Democratic statewide slate into office. Unlike Texas, Democrats felt they had been vindicated by history, or at least a confused and disorganized electoral process, when Joe Biden carried the state by 12,000 votes in the official returns, and they won two Senate seats in runoffs. For them, Georgia was trending inexorably blue due to demographics, and it helped reassure them that 2020 was merely a bump on the road to “blue Texas” and they could write off Florida or their lost voters in the Midwest.
That is what must make the clobbering O’Rourke and Abrams suffered last night more galling. They represented the future of both states and the Democratic Party in 2018, and their losses were chalked up to demographic shifts not yet being significant enough to tip the scales. The lopsided defeats of both O’Rourke and Abrams last night suggested different narrative. Their futures were never to be. And a Democratic Party which bet its future on winning the 2018 elections the next time they come around is going to have to face the reality that 2018 is in the past and will never return. It will not be helpful to winning the 2024, 2026, or 2028 elections.
In Texas, Beto O’Rourke’s gubernatorial bid ended only slightly better than that of Abbott’s hapless opponent in 2018, the Lesbian Sheriff of Dallas County, Lupe Valdez. Valdez had lost by a margin of 56%-43%, whereas O’Rourke, who won 48.4% of the vote against Senator Cruz back in 2018, looks likely to receive just under 44% this time around. His defeat is due in large part to a poor performance with Texas Hispanics. While they still voted for Democrats, they did so by an underwhelming margin of 58%-40% according to exit polls. Meanwhile, Asian Americans, one of the fastest growing demographics in Texas, and one which had powered Democratic gains in 2018, split almost evenly between the parties, evidently alienated by Democratic indifference to crime and immigration.
In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, the standard bearer of Democratic hopes that they could organize their way to victory by counting voters on the basis of race and background, also went backwards. Having lost to Brian Kemp by less than 2% in 2018, she appears to have lost by at least 8% this time. Humiliatingly for a candidate who based her brand on appeals to racial identity, Kemp did well with rural African American voters. He became the first Republican since Richard Nixon to win Calhoun County, which is 64% African American.
Those defeats were real. Democratic “moral victories” in keeping races in North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin closer than perhaps they were expected to be still resulted in them failing to win those races.
Nor was there a clear pattern of defeats for Trump-backed candidates or wins for others. Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates won those close races in North Carolina and Ohio, and may well win in Nevada. By contrast, candidates who repudiated the former President lost races they were expected to win in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, and the GOP Senate candidate who rebuked him lost by double-digits in Colorado.
In a sense, 2022 was 2018 in reverse. It was a bad night for the incumbent party, but one where the nature of partisanship limited the room for maneuver. Early expectations should not define the evening.
Daniel Berman is a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics. He also writes as Daniel Roman.
Not as good as predicted but still a good possibility to pick up 15-20 House seats (no more Speaker Pelosi or Dem House committee chairs) and also to pick up one or two seats in the Senate.
Nothing wrong with control of both chambers of Congress during Biden’s lame duck years.
Too much pre-election talk of “red wave” made GOP voters complacent! Always act like you are behind, not ahead! Hopefully Herschel can win the runoff to stop Biden’s plans for the Senate. And we hope no RINOs decide to “cross the aisle” to bail Senile Joe out!
I think we can blame Donald Trump if we lose the Senate. He brought us losing candidates in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and probably in Arizona. He is responsible for Walker in Georgia also. He celebrated when Bennet won Colorado. I am not a never Trumper, but he clearly cost us if we lose the Senate. This may mean the end of the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, and many more liberal judges. Quite a price to pay to relitigate 2020. I’m also disappointed that it seems more important to a lot of our citizenry, to be able to abort your baby and mutilate children in the name of transgenderism than it is to have a functioning economy, border and law enforcement. Interested in other opinions.
TWO PRE-ELECTI0N CONSECUTIVE POLLS PREDICTED VICTORIES FOR THE REPUBS AND BOTH FAILED. WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ?? ???????? AS IN 2020, THE libs CHEATED AGAIN ON THE ELECTIONS. THE VOTING MACHINES USED ARE, OF COURSE, OWNED BY liberal COMPANIES AND THE VOTING MACHINES NEED TO BE FORENSICALLY EXAMINED LIKE THEY WERE IN THE 2020 ELECTION AND SOME WERE FOUND TO BE FRAUDULANT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AS WE SPEAK, THE libs ARE SENDING SUITCASES OF FAKE BALLOTS IN TO ARIZONA, NEVADA AND THE TWO OTHER STATES. AND THESE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, CHEATING, LYIING libs WILL, AS USUAL NOT BE PROSECUTED. DEPORT ALL libs AND illegals, STAT, TO MAGA
What gains? . . . The Republicans did what they do best, screw up a sure thing! . . . The worst President in American History and did Republicans point out the highest inflation in 40 years? Did they point out the highest gasoline prices ever? The highest housing prices? . . . I guess not enough or is it just that the average Democratic voter is just plain stupid or both? . . . What a huge disappointment!
The big red wave, a ripple. The saying that “Democrats are unscrupulous, and Republicans are stupid” rang true yesterday. At this hour the Senate is tied at 48 with 4 still outstanding.
They underestimated the impact of the Dobbs abortion ruling. The remarks by Justice Thomas regarding contraception and same sex marriage, were absolutely stupid and gave the liberals ammunition for the protection of a woman’s reproduction rights campaign rhetoric. There was no counter argument the allegation that the GOP was going to reduce Social Security and Medicare.
Did the GOP enlighten the electorate that the threat to Democracy as stated by the liberals meant that if the citizen did not vote Democrat, then Democracy was lost? No. It also became evident that the past presidents Clinton and Obama hammered away that the GOP crime argument and skated around the border issue, which helped the Democrats. The question, how do we stem the tide of American Socialism?
This midterm election was disappointing on several fronts. With the worst President in the history of this country, out of control inflation, high gas and energy prices, overpriced housing, dysfunctional school systems, radical and incoherent transgender education and on demand abortion, ongoing race hustling, an open border policy and the list goes on, you’d think that the American voter would turn out in mass to show their rejection of these policies.
The fact that there wasn’t a Red Wave disturbs me. There is no doubt that our voting systems are flawed and easy to manipulate. I don’t buy the argument that Trump’s endorsed candidates were rejected over incumbent Democrats. If you are an average citizen living paycheck to paycheck or a retiree living on a fixed income there would be no way that you would support this economy and the direction the country is going.
I live in the ultra Blue State of Maryland and not one of the candidates I voted for won over tired and corrupt Democrat incumbents. I feel that I truly waste my time voting in this state.
I find it hard to believe that the voters in this country lack the basic common sense that they would vote for candidates that want to hurt them financially. Are we a society of masochists or just being exploited by a corrupt voting system?
The next 2 years are going to be very tough and most likely worse than the last 2 ,, because of the socialist progressive DICTATOR’s push to take our free REPUBLIC ,,,
Face it. The country is over as we’ve known and loved it. From now on its all about tactical retreat, ie slowing them down. With this bitter result all of South and North America are irrevocably socialist. Our country has allowed for such wealth building that we may live out our lives in relative peace…or not. The 2010 election resulted in 63 gop seats taken in the house as well as several in the senate. The tea party spirit as well as maga are memories now. There will be no awakening, great or otherwise.
Biden Admin is a failure on most things – of that, there is no doubt. But why was there no Red Wave? Well, because independents, including right-leaning independents such as myself DO NOT support the defeated former President Donald Trump and the people he promoted. This is was a vote against Trumpism. I live in GA and I voted for Gov. Brian Kemp & Sen. Raphael Warnock. I am ashamed that I ignored red flags and voted for Trump in 2020 because the media was unfair to the man and, despite all his shenanigans, he did not cross all the red lines. But after he lost in 2020 and the way he behaved with the J6 and stealing classified documents, most independents cannot support him in any way shape or form. And not only him, but any MAGA Republican. So, there is your answer. If you want the Republicans to win, vote for moderate ones.
There is a chance to get this right in 2024. Dump Trump and bring somebody young – like Ron DeSantis. I can get behind him. I can get behind most other rational Repubicans who don’t have much association with the 45th POTUS. But if Trump is the nominee, I will vote for a Democrat no matter who it is. See I was even respectful of the man, not calling him names. Just let him ride into sunset and be gone from the political scene. Let his type of folks be done and gone. Republicans need to bring smarter, more moderate candidates to win.
Oh, before I go, let me remind you that in GA we have a runoff. I cannot let somebody like Herschell Walker to become our Senator. Warnock is not good either but at least he can form coherent sentences. The Republicans insisted on pushing Walker… I voted against him once and will do it again soon. Walker is slightly behind and I wanna make sure he is beaten soundly. Peace.
Trump should go away and not run in 2024…if he does it’s a sure victory for the Democrats again.
We repubs handed the keys back to the dims last night. They now hold the momentum. You can’t paint lipstick on this pig. Ron Johnson in WIS almost lost ??? Here we are at 10:50 pm Wed night with 208 house votes and 49 Senate votes. Wimpy. Biden said today he’s doing nothing different. Why not ? He was confirmed.
The Repubs need to find an analytical, strategic, brutal campaign mgr and give him a $1 Billion budget for 2025 or get Biden in a wheelchair. Laugh at Biden all you want. He is a smarter politician that the Repubs have. His great advantage is being underestimated.
Republicans are famous for their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Too many weak Trump candidates like Oz. Trump picks people, in primaries, who like him, but are not popular in the state. That a cadaver could beat Oz is just one example. I want Trump to ride into the sunset, I love his agenda, but his mouth and lack of impulse control will lose the presidency in 2024.
Not all the results are in just yet, but I am disappointed that the Red Wave didn’t materialize. Yes, Republicans will win the House, and possibly the Senate, but not by margins that would befit a reaction to the miserable job biden has done as president. I know this won’t go over well, but I’m wondering if endorsements by Trump have lost their impact. Ask yourself: would the votes have added up to the same numbers if Trump hadn’t rallied for the R candidates? Wasn’t biden’s administration inept enough to warrant a strong reaction toward the R’s?
I voted twice for Trump–in 2016 because of promises made and in 2020 because of promises kept. He did a great job bringing the economy back to life after Obama’s Great Recession. Although the recession didn’t last as long as his presidency, business owners like me felt the aftershocks for years after the recession had technically ended. Voting for policy is the sensible course of action. Letting someone’s personal life and his personality steer your vote is not the road to follow. Still, many cast their vote based on those observations.
Nevertheless, the emergence of strong, sane R’s and overwhelming support for DeSantis gives us a potentially excellent chance of taking all 3 branches in 2024. The democrat party is falling apart due to their bizarre political and social platform. Abortion up to and including the moment of birth, legal recourse when people aren’t addressed by their chosen pronouns, crime waves unaddressed, public education taking too many liberties with our children, men in women’s sports and locker rooms, far too much unearned money given away like candy on Halloween, radical policies on climate change, the border, energy, inflation, foreign policy… Losers, all.
If Trump withdrew his presence, maybe R wins would be more decisive. Many voters will vote for him if he’s the nominee in 2024, as I would. But too many still despise this man and vote D for that reason alone. I’ve spoken with friends and acquaintances who are tortured between voting for their party and yet wavering because it’s Trump. Some are lifelong R’s, but will never vote for him. Maybe those 2018 narrow wins in Texas (Cruz vs. O’Rourke) and Georgia (Kemp vs. Abrams) would not have been so close if Trump hadn’t been president.
With so many critical issues at stake, should we take that chance? Do we want to be stuck with another incompetent D president in another close race? I think it’s time to search for younger, less tainted candidates, and DeSantis’ successful run as governor and his solid win in Florida have shown us that he, if he runs, would be an excellent candidate, and one with less baggage. DeSantis won support from half the voters under age 30 and 40% of the Hispanic vote.
2024 presents a great opportunity because so many American voters are fed up with this insane, inept, and radical D party. We need to rethink the direction the GOP should take, and these midterms have shown that we have many excellent potential candidates. 2024 will be a golden opportunity and could be the start of a long run of likeable Republicans. If we blow it in the next presidential election, this opportunity will never be repeated.
MSM is the enemy of our country! I don’t think that if voters were told about voting for a candidate that encourages the release of convicted rapist, killers, thieves, car jackers, drug dealers without posting a bail within hours of being arrested, being against using the abundant energy resources to lower energy costs, secure our boarder from the cartels that now control it, poisoning our youth at a rate of people dying in a 757 plane crash a week, I could go on and on. Main Stream Media hates common sense and gas lights and spins the news to keeps thier progresssive far left ideologies on the front burner!
I mostly agree with Berman’s closing argument, however Dr. Steve Turley’s conclusions are quite accurate as well where he states, ” the BLUE states got bluer & the RED states got redder “…
All of the over optimism by the GOP mostly evaporated but with some success stories as well…
It still is NOT conclusive that the GOP will in fact regain control of the House & it is even more uncertain if they can win back the Senate.
Once again, PA, GA & AZ are making the news where election integrity is concerned, i.e. how on God’s green earth could a ” braindead ” individual such as Fedderman possibly get elected after his DISMAL debate performance with Dr. Oz who LOST the race, more of the same with Doug Mastriano seeking to become PA’s next governor only to lose to Shapiro…Once again these states are still counting all the early MAIL-IN ballots turned in by primarily early Democrat voters…
On the surface, it appears not much has changed, i.e. those same tabulators by Dominion, the associated software by Smartmatic are still being used, despite the overwhelming fraud committed with these machines & it’s related software used in the 2020 Presidential Election, yet despite this, by all appearances, the American people want more of the same moving forward, more violence across this nation, crooked district attorneys on the George Soro’s payroll, inflation, stagflation, WOKE indoctrination, i.e. CRT & Sexual Gender Studies WITHOUT parental approval on our most vulnerable, our school aged children in K – 12, apparently the American people can’t enough of the Communistic takeover of the American Election process, after all, they just voted, once again these sycophant’s back into office… :~(
Bill… :~)
We need to rerun 1994 for GOP to win
Need New Blood
New ideas
Dump RINOs & DC RNC types
Fight fire with Dems IE election month
Fight voter machine software plans
Or rerun 2022 again
We need to get rid of the majority leaders in the house and senate. McConnel did not help MAGA republicans but helped Murkowski in Alaska. That splits Republicans big time. Republicans also have benedict-romney in the senate. Republicans rule the people – they do not prove to work for the people.
I cannot understand why people still believe that McConnell, Graham, Romney, and McCarthy are good for the GOP. And while President Trump and his supporters to get over it and stop whining about 2020, there is no doubt that the four mentioned above caused incalculable damage to the GOP itself this past Tuesday night by refusing to back better candidates. Trump himself contributed to this charade by endorsing Oz and Masters in particular. Yes, his endorsements overall won a very high percentage of their races, but the races that really needed to be won were ran by very deficient candidates and were shunned by the Establishment, war mongering, corrupted hacks in the GOP. Got to do much better, folks. It is way past time to move on from 2020, that election is not going to be redone and there are huge issues ahead of us that need attention and this continued screaming at the moon about fraud, etc. is not convincing anyone that that is something that produces results in those areas that we need to be focusing on.
Great analysis: thank you; Yes we have much positive to build on: the red wave continues to encourage us. Onward Christian Soldiers!!!