Media Wrong Again on “Trump Effect” in Australian Elections

In the wake of the Australian Liberal Party’s bruising electoral defeat over the weekend, the prevailing corporate media narrative has been that U.S. President Donald Trump is dragging down conservatives around the globe – particularly following the epic collapse of the Canadian Conservative Party in March. But this analysis misses key context and ignores structural flaws that have allowed liberals to stem the rising tide of conservatism worldwide.

At first glance, there are a number of striking similarities between the election results in Canada and Australia. In both cases, the predominant center-right party (the Conservative Party in Canada and the Liberal Party in Australia) initially appeared to be in a strong position to reclaim power before experiencing a sudden polling collapse. In both cases, the leader of the conservative coalition, Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia, also lost their seats in parliament – a highly unusual occurrence. And in both cases, conservatives suffered a barrage of attacks from the left over their supposed ties to Donald Trump.

The results in Australia were particularly disastrous for the center-right Liberal Party at the hands of the left-wing Labor Party. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives were up for election, as were 40 of 76 seats in the Senate. With results still being finalized, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to grow its majority, increasing its vote share by just over two percent from the last round of federal elections in 2022. Albanese is now set to become the first prime minister to be elected to a second term after serving a full first term since John Howard in 1998.

But as much as the media wants to make these results all about Trump, the reality is that there were far more influential forces at play – not the least of which is the Liberal Party’s failure to field attractive candidates and run a coherent campaign. The structure of Australian society and the absence of serious debates on issues like the economy and national defense also played a significant role in the Liberal failure to make a compelling case against Albanese and the Labor Party.

Dutton himself, after congratulating Albanese, acknowledged the mistakes that his party had made, stating, “This is not our night. I regret that good members and candidates have lost their seats and ambitions.” Dutton further promised that the conservative coalition would rebuild, but that will require some serious commitment and introspection.

At the beginning of this year’s campaign, Liberals were still reeling from their significant losses in 2022, when they secured just 58 seats – their lowest total since 1983. During that time, they lost the premiership in South Australia and faced a second consecutive defeat in Western Australia.

As Laura Tingle, a left-leaning Aussie political commentator, remarked, the Liberal Party seems to have “lost its organizational foundation,” which has made it “difficult to raise funds and run campaigns.” Tingle further pointed to what was the more likely cause of the Liberals’ defeat on Saturday, rather than Donald Trump: a complete lack of a coherent governing philosophy within the conservative coalition.

“It was not clear what they stood for,” Tingle said. “Not only were a few policies rejected, but the entire political strategy has also been rejected.”

Former Liberal Party pollster Tony Barry agreed with this analysis. “We have to stop drinking Kool-Aid from the firehose,” he said. “In the past, when we used to be a party of lower taxes and limited spending, we could compete on a values-based narrative… we don’t have values-based communication [anymore].”

Greg Mirabella, the former Liberal Party president in Victoria, shares this perspective, arguing that the party is “turning off good candidates,” which makes the challenge of rebuilding even more daunting. He also warns that “the party rewarded popularity over substance,” saying that in order to win, Liberals must “present a more precise narrative of principles and values.”

All of these analyses point to the same basic reason for the Liberal Party’s defeat: Australian conservative leaders failed to present a clear vision for what their governing plan was, relying instead on the sitting government’s declining popularity. Factors like rising antisemitism and vandalism against Jewish properties, especially in Melbourne and Sydney, hurt Labor’s reputation further, but the Liberals again failed to take advantage of it.

The Liberal Party came across as overconfident, assuming Australians would believe they had no alternative as the cost-of-living crisis deepened and the country faced a mounting list of crises.

In many cases, Liberals appeared disorganized and haphazard, failing to even finalize a campaign platform until days before the election. Many proposals were introduced after the start of early voting. Retired Australian General Mick Ryan blasted the party (as well as Labor) for a “lack of honest public discussion on increasing the defense budget.” Liberal Senator Alex Antic compared his party’s platform to a “mobile phone contract,” criticizing it as full of gimmicks rather than substantive policy.

Digging into the details, it becomes obvious that the real problem for Australian conservatives is that they did not follow Trump’s example enough. Trump’s 2024 campaign was one of the most disciplined in modern American history, while his policy platform was chock-full of specific promises and plans to enact his “America First” agenda.

This perhaps best explains why American conservatives saw a historic victory last November while Australian conservatives suffered a crushing defeat this past weekend. While the legacy press will be all too eager to lay the results at the feet of Donald Trump, a more Trumpian approach in Australia – and Canada – may have yielded different results.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.